North-South divide is alive and well

Stop the Press.

There is a North-South divide but it is not over the usual issues,it is to do with which sauce which put on our food.

The latest survey from You Gov shows that Brown sauce is the more popular choice among respondents from the North of England (37 per cent chose brown) and Scotland (40 per cent), while red is best in the South (36 per cent chose red), Wales (36 per cent) and the Midlands (36 per cent).

The pollers interviewed 2,500 British adults and across the country the survey revealed that equal numbers of people pick either red or brown sauce in sausage sandwiches.

The marginal battle ground

As political analysts recognise,the election will be won and lost in a few marginal seats.

It comes as no suprise then that the latest You Gov poll in this morning's Times puts the two main parties neck and neck in these seats

The poll shows that the switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is about 1.5 to 2 points higher in the battleground seats than nationally. That might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, smaller than many in the party would hope after the big spending on these targets. It might be enough only to take the Tories to the threshold of the 326 seats they need for a bare overall majority in the Commons

As Mike Smithson says

All this is going to provide real heart for Labour supporters and add to the jitters at Cameron towers. It’s also going to make the coming campaign that bit more exciting.

Tories pulling away again

Two opinion polls in the Sunday's are suggesting that the recent claw back in Labour support may have been a flash in the pan.

A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times shows the Conservatives pulling away from Labour,with the the Conservative's lead having risen to five points compared with a margin of just two points over Labour when it was conducted last weekend.

Meanwhile an ICM poll for the News of the World put the Conservatives on 40 per cent (up three points on a poll by the same company a fortnight ago), nine points clear of Labour on 31 per cent.

A hung or not hung Parliament

Whilst on the subject of elections (2) whilst many will be looking at the Guardian's poll,also take a look at the Sun's daily You Guv which unlike the Guardian's has taken the temperature during "bullygate"

It shows a 12 point Tory lead with both the Lib Dems and the Tories taking votes off Labour.

What a day-Polls narrow,Heseltine puts the dampers on Cameron and Brown attacks civil servants

It was always going to be the big story of the morning as the new look Observer previews Andrew Rawnsley's book The End of the Party,which charts Labour's second and third terms in power.

The big revelation is that Gordon Brown's abusive behaviour and volcanic eruptions of foul temper left Downing Street staff so frightened that he received an unprecedented reprimand from the head of the civil service.

The Mail on Sunday has uncovered new evidence of Mr Brown’s extraordinary eruptions, including an incident in which he hurled a tirade of foul-mouthed abuse at Bank of England Governor Mervyn King in a stand-up row.

The Prime Minister though comes out fighting in the Indy.In an exclusive interview with the paper he says that he is frustrated with the way he is portrayed by what he sees as a "hostile" media.

"It is simply a lie to say that I've ever hit anybody in my life," Mr Brown said. "I may have done one or two good tackles at rugby, but the idea that is suggested in this so-called inside account is just ludicrous."

The question is what damage is the Rawnsley book going to do.Timed to push the relaunched Observer's sales figures up,its timing with the launch of the Labour campaign slogan will not have gone unnoticed.

The news that a

Paranoid Mr Brown grabbed an aide violently and shouted: 'They're out
to get me!' The raging PM thumped the rear of the front seat of his car so hard
that it scared the bodyguard sitting in it; while an aide sitting next to Mr
Brown thought the PM was going to smash him in the face.

is not going to go down well.

It's a shame for the party because the latest Sunday Times' poll from You Gov shows the polls narrowing.There is just a 6 per cent gap now and with Michael Heseltine's spectacular intervention in the Sunday Telegraph where he says that David Cameron will will not win a general election outright and will struggle to form a government,

His comments, at a meeting of party members in west London, reflect a growing anxiety among the leadership about the size of the task they still face to secure outright victory.

Latest You Gov poll

The Sunday Times' latest You Gov poll will be good reading for the Tories this morning after the European and local elections they return to 40 per cent.

The poll puts Labour on 24 and the Lib Dems on 18.However support for the minor parties is holding up.

For Labour though more bad news as

More than half, 51%, agree with the statement that “Gordon Brown’s continued presence as prime minister is damaging the country”, against 27% who disagree.

and

60%, say Brown should step down now or before the next general election. Only 30% think he should lead Labour into the election.

Latest poll puts Labour in 4th place

With the goings on in Westminster today's elections seem to pale into insignificence but the Telegraph produces its latest You Gov poll which shows Labour in fourth place going into today's Euro vote.

With the Tories ahead witgh 26 points the poll forecasts

Among people certain to vote, Labour can count on just 16 per cent support, just ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent and less than Nigel Farage’s anti-EU party, which stands on 18 per cent.

Tories take London according to You Gov

According to the London Evening Standard's latest opinion poll an election called now would see the Tories winning 40 out of the 74 seats in the capital

It's You Gov poll in today's paper says that

Among the seats which would fall to the Tories are Brentford and Isleworth, held by health minister Ann Keen; Tooting, held by cohesion minister Sadiq Khan; Poplar and Limehouse, held by transport minister Jim Fitzpatrick, and Harrow West, held by trade minister Gareth Thomas.

The poll puts the Tories 12 points up on Labour at 44 to 32 with the Lib Dems on 16.

If repeated at a general election,it would give David Cameron control of the capital for the first time in a generation

Bouncy Bounce for the Tories

The first opinion poll since the budget gives the Tories an eighteen point lead over Labour.

The Telegraph's You Gov Poll puts the Conservatives are on 45 per cent, up four on last month. Labour on 27 per cent, down four, with the Liberal Democrats on 18.

This may be simply a bad reaction to the budget but recent polls were putting the Tory lead at around 8-10 points which was giving Labour some heart.

Converted at the polling stations this would gove David Cameron a majority of around 150 seats.

Mike Smithson also reminds us

It should be noted that this is the first YouGov poll since Smeargate so it should not be taken as a straight reaction to the budget. I’m also none too confident about polls so close to big events like the budget as I was arguing on the previous thread.
So a great poll for Cameron and the Tories but let’s wait a bit until we’ve moved on from the budget period.

Start living within our means says the majority

This morning's Telegraph carries a You Gov poll which suggests that the majority of the public think that the country should start living within its means.

Faced with a recession and falling tax revenues, more than two thirds believe that the Government should spend less on administration in public services - although core services like health, education and policing should keep their funding.

reports the paper

Only nine per cent thought that spending levels should remain the same whilst 6 per cent thought that it should be increased.

Maybe rather secondary in the poll is the latest voting intentions with no change as the Tories keep a 10 point lead over Labour

Two polls out this morning

This morning's Independent poll seems to suggests that the business community and Gordon Brown are falling out of favour.

Com Res's poll of 200 business leaders shows that team Cameron is now seen as the way forward on the economy compared to team Brown who have been overtaken by Lib Dem sage Vince Cable.

Meanwhile the first poll of the year for You Gov in this morning's Sun puts the Tories seven points clear of Labour on 41 points something that the paper points out that will result in a hung Parliament

As the paper points out

The Tories are still three points short of the lead needed to secure an overall Commons majority in a general election

Another poll shows Tory lead in single figures

The latest in the week' opinion polls hit the front pages this morning.

This time it is the Telegraph whose You Gov survey confirms what the other polls are saying,the Brown bounce continues.

As the paper reports

At the end of May, in the wake of the disastrous Crewe and Nantwich by-election, Labour polled just 23 per cent – its lowest showing since records began – putting it 24 points behind the Tories.
Last month, before the financial crisis escalated, the lead was 20 points. That was reduced to 14 points earlier this month in the immediate aftermath of the party conference season and is now down to nine. Today's poll puts the Tories on 42 points, down three, while Labour are on 33, up two, with the Liberal Democrats on 15. Translated to a general election, the Conservative majority would be only 22

As usual Mike Smithson is on the ball

Brown’s party really needs to see the Tory share slip below 40% from a range of pollsters to have a realistic chance of the outcome being a hung parliament.
Feeding in the latest poll into the UKPollingReport seat calculator and we get CON 333: LAB 265: LD 24: OTH 28 seats. This almost certainly underplays the Lib Dem position but gives a broad view of where we are - a small Conservative majority.

Let's wait for the bounce to wear off

Today's poll in the Sun seems to suggest that the Brown bounce is underway.Taken after the Tuesday speech but before the ramifications of the Ruth Kelly affair,it has the Tories on 41%,Labour on 31% and the Lib Dems on 16%.

Is it significant? Well the last figures had the Tories 20 points ahead so did the speech change the voters perception or are they simply confidence that Brown is the man to steer us through the economic turmoil?

Interesting the poll still suggested that 6/10 people thought that the Pm didn't understand what people were going through.

That expert on polls Mike Smithson points out that

polls bang in the middle of conference season are usually totally misleading and merely reflect that whoever was on most recently was getting an extra publicity boost. This is largely because of the broadcasting rules that mean that the national TV and radio stations suspend their normal news judgements for three weeks. Extra time is devoted to to the party conferences which affects the opinion polls.

suggesting that the most telling ones will be towards the end of Oct when the conferences have been forgotten and the Brown/Cameron/Clegg bounce has dissipated.

How maths could help Labour win the next election

Kevin Mcguire has the heads up on an interesting piece of polling information in the Mirror this morning.

Peter Kellner,polling guru thinks that the next general election may not be as clear cut as we all think.

Chiefly that

Political geography favours Gordon Brown. If the parties got the same national vote, Labour still wins 80 more seats. Cameron needs two million more votes for the same number of seats. To draw level Cameron needs a six per cent lead, a hefty 10 per cent for an overall majority.

But also that

Labour woes are fundamentally different from those of John Major. Black Wednesday was a Tory error and signed Major's death warrant but voters accept global food, fuel and credit problems aren't Brown's fault but want more help

The review by the Fabian society is not published until next week but it may send Labour MP's to Manchester a little more heartened than in previous months

No respite at the polls for Labour

Two more opinion polls in this mornings papers showing that the summer break has done little to change voters opinions on the parties.

In the Independent Comres puts the Tories on 46% to Labours 25% with the worry for Labour that only 72% of those who identified themselves as Labour supporters likely to take part in the next election intended to vote for the party.

In the Observer You Gov puts the Tories on 48% to Labour's 26%

Over at Political betting Mike Smithson asks why the fall in petrol prices over the last few weeks has not changed voters perceptions of Labour.

The view was that if the soaring world oil prices could come to an end and the price at the pumps started to decline then there would be some benefit to the government.

Well there has been some relief but the improving position on fuel prices and and possible feel good factor from the Olympics do not seem to have had an impact on Labour’s polling figures - things remain in an appalling position.

So will the clamour to replace Brown continue on his return back to the UK?

A little good news for Brown

The latest opinion poll in this morning's Sunday Times brings little surprise

The YouGov poll shows David Cameron’s Tories in a 20-point lead, down narrowly from last month’s 22 points, while Labour’s support is at 25%, where it has been stuck every month since May, suggesting this may be as low as the party can go. The Conservatives have edged down from their peak of 47%, which the party enjoyed in June and July, to 45%. The Liberal Democrats are up from 16% to 18%.

As the paper points out,Gordon Brown will take a little comfort from one of the side questions which suggested that

he is well ahead in the public mind of his main rival for the Labour leadership, David Miliband.
The foreign secretary, who has failed to quell speculation that he is plotting a challenge to Brown, is regarded by only 21% of voters as potentially a better prime minister. Brown, rated as a better leader by 38% of voters, enjoys a two-to-one lead over his rival. Among Labour supporters, Brown is ahead by 51% to 21%.

However he will hoping that the gap in the public's mind starts to narrow as the political season gets going again in September

Poll shows Labour wouldl lose no matter who the leader

Another battering in the polls thismorning for Gordon Brown who according to a a You Gov poll in the Telegraph

personal popularity has fallen to a historic low but ditching him would not save Labour from a general election defeat

Bad news for the likes of David Miliband et all as a change in leader wouldnot have any effect on the ratings

More bad news-for the economy and 212 Labour MP's

Bad news on the economic and political front for the government this morning.Folowing yeterday's news that house prices continue to fall,the Guardian leads with a survey showing that

the government's efforts to bounce back from Labour's third place in the local elections, defeat in the London mayoral election and the loss of the Crewe and Nantwich seat are being hampered by a mood of deep gloom that has engulfed voters in the year since Brown became prime minister.

adding

The measure for the general health of the economy dropped by five points to -58 points this month, a drop of 40 points in the last year to a level not seen since February 1993, in the early stages of the UK's post-recession recovery. The survey found that consumers have never been so reluctant to make a major purchase, such as a washing machine or furniture.

Meanwhile the latest opinion polls in this morning's Telegraph show that Brown is less popular than Foot.

The latest You Gov survey puts the Tories on 47 points and Labour on 23.

According to the Telegraph

It is the lowest level of support for Labour since pollsters Gallup first asked people to declare their voting intention in 1943, a few months before the Battle of El Alamein.

Mike Smithson adds the usual caution

Whether these are accurate projections for the general election who knows? Their central importance will be the impact they have on the mood of the parliamentary Labour party as MPs return to Westminster after what used to be called the Whitsun holiday.

As he points out on these figures 212 Labour MP's would lose their seats if there was an election tomorrow

Latest polls more bad news for Labour

The latest opinion polls this morning show the Tory lead growing as we approach the Crewe and Nantwich by election.

The latest You Gov poll in this mornings Sunday Times puts the Tories on 45%,Labour on 25% and the Lib Dems on 18%

This would give the Tories a majority of 150 if repaeted in a general election.

Meanwhile the News of the World carries an ICM poll in the Crewe and Nantwich by election which puts the Tories on 45% and Labour on 37%

The paper says

That's double the gap of a week ago—and if carried through to the ballot box on Thursday, it would give the Tories their first by-election GAIN in 26 years.
It's a devastasting blow for Brown and—says Nick Sparrow, managing director of pollsters ICM—leaves him "staring defeat in the face at the next general election".

adding

The poll also reveals almost half of voters think Brown's £2.7billion giveaway this week to compensate for scrapping the 10p tax rate was the RIGHT thing to do—but 59 per cent say it's still a BRIBE.
And an astonishing one in four say it has made them even LESS likely to vote Labour on Thursday

18 point lead for the Tories

Tomorrow's Telegraph will show the Tories with a wait for it........18 point lead over Labour.Rather a turn around from the ICM in the Guardian earlier this week

The opinion poll - the first since dozens of Labour MPs threatened to vote against Mr Brown's budget plans - records the Conservatives on 44 per cent, with Labour trailing on 26 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats are on 17 per cent. The Conservative lead is the biggest enjoyed by the party since October 1987, just a few months after Margaret Thatcher won her third term.

It would give the party around a 50 seat majority if repeated in a general election.

Furthermore

Mr Brown's leadership is directly questioned by the poll, with two thirds of people believing that he has failed to give the Government a clear sense of direction.

Fraser Nelson at Coffee House speculates

To win, Cameron needs the biggest swing ever achieved by the moderen Conservative party in Opposition. And yet, such a goal is starting to look increasingly likely.

As with the ICM poll Mike Smithson warns

The big issue is what does this say about next Thursday local elections and the big battle in London. Can Labour in the capital duck out of the national trend? Or is this just YouGov - the objective of much left wing criticism at the moment.