The marginal battle ground

As political analysts recognise,the election will be won and lost in a few marginal seats.

It comes as no suprise then that the latest You Gov poll in this morning's Times puts the two main parties neck and neck in these seats

The poll shows that the switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is about 1.5 to 2 points higher in the battleground seats than nationally. That might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, smaller than many in the party would hope after the big spending on these targets. It might be enough only to take the Tories to the threshold of the 326 seats they need for a bare overall majority in the Commons

As Mike Smithson says

All this is going to provide real heart for Labour supporters and add to the jitters at Cameron towers. It’s also going to make the coming campaign that bit more exciting.

Tories pulling away again

Two opinion polls in the Sunday's are suggesting that the recent claw back in Labour support may have been a flash in the pan.

A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times shows the Conservatives pulling away from Labour,with the the Conservative's lead having risen to five points compared with a margin of just two points over Labour when it was conducted last weekend.

Meanwhile an ICM poll for the News of the World put the Conservatives on 40 per cent (up three points on a poll by the same company a fortnight ago), nine points clear of Labour on 31 per cent.

Affirmation bias at Com Res

The much heralded Com Res poll in the Indy has turned into a bit of a damp squid.

The poll puts the Tories 11 points ahead of Labour with it seems the gap widening.

However of more importance to the newspaper seemed to be the question framed to show that David Cameron is struggling to ease voters' concerns that there is a hidden side to him and his party.

56 per cent of people believe the Tory leader is a "slick salesman, but I worry about what he is like underneath", the ComRes survey found. Thirty-six per cent disagree with this.

Back to the poll though and the lead would give with a uniform swing Cameron an 18-seat majority.

As Political betting says

the numbers should provide a lot of relief at Cameron Towers and something of a boost to the Lib Dems.

I think though at least the early election can now be ruled out

Far from sealed?

Another poll hinting that the Tory deal with the electorate is far from sealed.

This morning's Indy contains the latest Comres which suggests that Mr Cameron would finish up 24 seats short of an overall majority in a hung parliament.

Perhaps more importantly than the narrowing seven point lead is the findings that

82 per cent of people want Mr Cameron to be clearer about what he would do on the economy – including 82 per cent of Tory supporters. Only 24 per cent believe the recession would have ended sooner if the Tories had been in power, while 69 per cent do not.

Tory poll puts government failings as the reason for poll lead

It probably wont make the best of weekend reading material for the Tory party but the latest poll from Conservative Home says that 80 per cent of respondants explain the Tory lead primarily in terms of Labour failure.

The economy was high on the list and Tim Montgomerie has kindly provided a wordle for the results.

But it must be worrying that it is negatives rather than positives that are propelling the party to the top of the polls

Tory lead at 20 points

The latest opinion poll to hit the ground running has come from Sky news this afternoon.

Ipsos reports a Tory lead over Labour of 20 points but does not echo the Indy's ComRes which showed the Lib Dems closing in on the Labour party.

It has been a bad week for the government and this poll has undoubtedly pick that up.

Three Horseman to be joined by a fourth-Is Labour finished?

I was attracted to the headline in this morning's Guardian,Is this the week that Labour lost the next election?

Patrick Wintour's piece is well worth a read.

The appearance of Neil Kinnock, Michael Foot and Jack Jones last Monday is likened to the three horesman of the apocolyse and maybe the fourh will be Gordon Brown?

All five polling organisations - ICM, ComRes, Ipsos MORI, YouGov and Populus - have now given the Tories double-digit leads. Most suggest the Tory resurgence has been at Labour's expense. Brown's second honeymoon last autumn in the wake of his first rescue of the banks has ended, leaving Downing Street deflated.

And the omens are not good

The nightmare for frustrated Labour MPs is that it is going to get a lot worse and, as the IMF predicted this week, there is little to no chance of pointing to any clear signs of recovery before a 2010 election. Darling's spring budget will lead to another downgrading of the public finances in comparison with the forecasts in the November pre-budget report.

For Wintour the only salvation could be the G20 summit in April,when Gordon will project himslef onto the international arena.The problem is that by then it might be too late

15%,11% now just 1%

Back after a long weekend away.

Much on the Damien Green affair,many revelations coming out of the Mumbai terror attacks,Haringay Councils child policy on the line and the opinion polls all over the place.

The latest this morning gives the Tories a 1 point lead over Labour which after seperate polls showing a 15% and an 11% lead shows the volitity of the current situation.

The poll in this morning's Independent suggests that

the measures in last week's pre-Budget report (PBR), including a new 45p-in-the-pound top rate of tax on incomes over £150,000, have proved popular among Labour's core voters.
The survey, taken between Friday and Sunday, puts the Tories on 37 per cent (down two points on last month), Labour on 36 per cent (up five points), the Liberal Democrats on 17 per cent (up one point) and other parties on 10 per cent (down four points).

According to James Forsyth

This is drastically at odds with the other polls that have come out since the PBR which have shown increased Tory leads. It is even more surprising when you consider that ComRes's last poll has the Tories ahead by 11 points. I’m tempted to dismiss it as a rogue poll

How Brown can take heart not from the bounce but from Canada

Peter Riddle examines the so called Brown bounce in the Times this morning and concludes that all is not as it seems

The Bounce he concludes is

is real but it is neither large nor unconditional enough for Labour to entertain realistic hopes that it has turned the corner.

People are already drawing parallels with Margaret Thatcher during the Falklands conflict and not only in the fact that she appeared to revel in the crisis.

However as Peter points out

Labour has advanced from a low of 26 to 27 per cent between May and August, according to the average of all published polls, to above 30 per cent in seven of the last eight polls, and an average of 31 to 32 per cent so far this month. But this has been largely at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, as the Tories have slipped only from 45 to 46 per cent to an average of 43 to 44 per cent.

Whereas in 1982

the Tories moved from just behind, or level pegging, with Labour and the then Alliance, at about 33 per cent, before the Falklands conflict to the mid40s afterwards, with Labour down to well under 30 per cent.

Labour though may take solice from Canada where the ruling party under Steven Harper from being in a position where it looked certain that they were going to lose the forthcoming election now looks like benefiting from being the man for a crisis.

How's about this for a prediction.Brown calls an early election before the effects of the recession bite home

Poll intrigue in Padstow

Claims of intrigue in the West Country this morning in the Indy.

Its Pandora column reports that

To coincide with Cameron's holiday in Padstow, the Western Morning News ran an online poll this week to find out whether locals thought Cameron would make a good Prime Minister. With the poll going heavily against him, a zealous staffer decided to try and shore up some support.

And his answer?

Dear all," he writes in an email to colleagues... "Western Morning News is running an online poll to coincide with David Cameron's visit to Cornwall, asking if he would make a good leader.
"The bad news is that, as it stands, 76 per cent have said 'no'. So, if you can spare two minutes, can you please go on and register your vote for 'yes' – it shouldn't take long to change the percentage round. Please pass this on to all helpers, campaigners and members that you can think of."

Trust and the economy

80% of people think that we are heading for a recession according to the latest ICM poll in this mornings Guardian and 465 of people think that the Cameron/Osbourne team will be better placed to help the economy out of recession.

Perhaps as he packs up his belongings and heads to Southwold,Gordon Brown can at least take consolation that there is a Western leader in a worse spot than him.

George W. Bush's overall job approval has dropped to 21% as 76% of American say the national economy is getting worse according to the latest survey from the American Research Group.
Among all Americans, 21% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 72% disapprove. When it comes to Bush's handling of the economy, 17% approve and 77% disapprove.

reports American Research Group

Latest polls put the Tories ahead by 21 points

The latest opinion poll in today's Independent puts the Tories 21 points clear of Labour.

The results in full and comparisons from the last poll

Conservative 45% (+1)
Labour 24% (-2)
Lib Dem 16% (-1)
Green 5% (+3)
Other 9% (-2)

I have to agree to a certain extent though with Bob Piper who questions the leading nature of the pollsters ComRes statements that were given to the panel.

These were the 4 questions

"Britain should never have become involved in Iraq" 66% agree, 26% disagree
"Britiah troops should be withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible" 74% agree, 18% disagree
"The Labour Party will lose the next election regardless of who leads it" 68% agree, including 38% of Labour voters, 22% disagree
"A Conservative government would be more effective in tackling knife crime than the present administration" 44% agree, 41% disagree

I give no credence at all to an opinion poll which tells people their answer as part of the question. I was, and remain, an opponent of the war in Iraq, but to see this portrayed as if it were a valid question of people's opinion.... "Britain should never have become involved in Iraq"... and, what do we find, shock horror, two-thirds of respondents agreed with the answer they were given by the person who asked the question doesn't impress me. Then we get the entirely neutral statements... "The Labour Party will lose the next election regardless of who leads it" and "a Conservative government would be more effective against knife crime than the present administration". And blow me down with a feather, the majority of people agreed with all of those leading statements.

A bad end to a bad week

Was confirmed in the Sun this morning as Labour gets the worst ever poll figures since well when?

The Sun’s findings put the Tories on a massive 49 per cent with Labour trailing on 23per cent — a gap of 26 points.

Not suprising really but it shows that Gordon's attempts to feel our pain have not worked so far anyway.

(And why on earth did he not attend Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral?)

Watching Question Time last night and I only saw the last 15 mins.It was rather painful watching James Purnell squirming as he tried to justify the about turn on cannabis.Attacked from all directions,the comment was made that it was headline government and was pandering to Paul Dacre

Let's wait and see what happens tomorrow

Forty per cent of British women who go on a holiday to Spain have sex with a stranger within the first five hours of their arrival. Believe this? Then you are ready to follow this week's local election results

says Danny Finklestein

Never mind that though,A few predictions flying around the Blogosphere tonight on the voting tomorrow.

Guido predicts

Boris will win and nothing else will really matter tomorrow. Polly Toynbee and all the rest of the chattering classes will choke on their words. Labour will finally understand in their collective consciousness that they made a terrible choice in replacing the triple election-winning Tony with the triple election-avoiding*

Iain Dale dares nine seperate predictions.He is quite adamant that Boris will win and the Tories will start to make some council gains

Sam Coates meanwhile reminds us that

Before elections, all three political parties give their predictions of what will happen. They frequently bear little reaction to what does happens on the night. That's because these briefings are part of the expectations game. Indeed, if a party's predictions have come true, that's likely because they've done extremely badly indeed

Straw owns up to mistakes

Just when the conroversy starts to die down,Jack Straw makes a ground entrance and aplogises for the 10p tax controversy.

Jon Craig describes how

On a radio phone-in, I'm All Right Jack, touted by some MPs as a caretaker leader in the event of a Labour meltdown on Thursday, said: "Government is not perfect. I'm sorry that this has happened."
And he told one caller: "I'm sorry that you have been placed in this position and it shouldn't have happened."

Meanwhile this morning's papers are full of more bad polls for the government.The Independent shows a 14 point lead in its latest poll,double that of the last

The latest ComRes survey for The Independent, taken between Friday and Sunday, puts the Tories on 40 per cent (up two points since last month), Labour on 26 per cent (down five points), the Liberal Democrats on 20 per cent (up three points) and other parties on 14 per cent (unchanged).

The Guardian predicts

Gordon Brown is heading for crushing reverses on Thursday night and will see Ken Livingstone swept from the London mayoralty, according to two final polls before the local elections published yesterday.
The projections would mean Labour would lose more than 200 council seats in England and Wales.

And on top of all that the Telegraph is claiming

Up to seven million savers will see their pension pots shrink from this month as a result of Gordon Brown's cut in income tax.Millions of letters have been sent out by the country's leading pension providers over the past few weeks telling clients they need to contribute more to their monthly pension schemes because of the change in income tax from 22 per cent to 20 per cent

New poll shows Tories on course of majority

This morning's Independent carries the latest opinion poll which shows that the Tories would gain a House of Commons Majority if the results were reflected at the mext general election.


The results,from a surveyu by Com Ras,seem to reflect the kick back form last weeks Northern Rock fiasco and according to the paper

the Tories are on 41 per cent (up three points on last month), Labour is unchanged on 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats remain on 17 per cent and other parties are on 12 per cent (down three). If repeated at the next election, David Cameron would win with an overall majority of 38.

A word of caution though from political betting

One factor which probably hurts Labour with the firm is the way the turn-out is calculated. ICM filters so it only includes those saying 7/10 or more and they are all given the same value. ComRes filters out those below 5/10 but then weights responses in line with the expressed certainty. YouGov does not filter or weight on the certainty to vote.