New poll shows Tories on course of majority

This morning's Independent carries the latest opinion poll which shows that the Tories would gain a House of Commons Majority if the results were reflected at the mext general election.


The results,from a surveyu by Com Ras,seem to reflect the kick back form last weeks Northern Rock fiasco and according to the paper

the Tories are on 41 per cent (up three points on last month), Labour is unchanged on 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats remain on 17 per cent and other parties are on 12 per cent (down three). If repeated at the next election, David Cameron would win with an overall majority of 38.

A word of caution though from political betting

One factor which probably hurts Labour with the firm is the way the turn-out is calculated. ICM filters so it only includes those saying 7/10 or more and they are all given the same value. ComRes filters out those below 5/10 but then weights responses in line with the expressed certainty. YouGov does not filter or weight on the certainty to vote.