How Brown can take heart not from the bounce but from Canada

Peter Riddle examines the so called Brown bounce in the Times this morning and concludes that all is not as it seems

The Bounce he concludes is

is real but it is neither large nor unconditional enough for Labour to entertain realistic hopes that it has turned the corner.

People are already drawing parallels with Margaret Thatcher during the Falklands conflict and not only in the fact that she appeared to revel in the crisis.

However as Peter points out

Labour has advanced from a low of 26 to 27 per cent between May and August, according to the average of all published polls, to above 30 per cent in seven of the last eight polls, and an average of 31 to 32 per cent so far this month. But this has been largely at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, as the Tories have slipped only from 45 to 46 per cent to an average of 43 to 44 per cent.

Whereas in 1982

the Tories moved from just behind, or level pegging, with Labour and the then Alliance, at about 33 per cent, before the Falklands conflict to the mid40s afterwards, with Labour down to well under 30 per cent.

Labour though may take solice from Canada where the ruling party under Steven Harper from being in a position where it looked certain that they were going to lose the forthcoming election now looks like benefiting from being the man for a crisis.

How's about this for a prediction.Brown calls an early election before the effects of the recession bite home