Richards on why Brown will follow Sunny Jim

There is a good article in this week's New Statesman by Steve Richards in which he examines the prospects of an early election.

several cabinet ministers have raised the possibility with me recently. Perhaps this giddy ministerial excitement has been brought on by the hint of spring in the air and will soon pass. Even so, they made a compelling case.

The compelling case is the experiences of Jim Callaghan who turned down the chance to go to the country in 1978 instead adopting the strategy of wiating until the last possible moment and then seeing it blow up in his face in a winter of industrial unrest.

The mistake heralded 18 years of a Tory government and the destruction of the Labour party.

The state of the British economy will be the main factor in the election outcome.

writes Richards and it is difficult to beleive that it is going to be better in autumn 2009 than the spring of 2010.

There is another issue also that the party may have to contend with this year

The revelations about MPs’ expenses form a story with unpredictable consequences. When all the receipts are published, probably in July, they could cause mayhem, as voters contrast the apparent greed of their local MPs with their own more precarious prospects. So far cabinet ministers have been at the centre of the storm, but at least they have probably stayed within the absurd rules. What will happen if it emerges that some MPs broke the rules?

It is safe to suggest I feel that May 2010 will see a return to the hustings.

Brown bounces to 6 points difference

It seems that one day we have a Brown bounce and the next we don't.

This morning's Populus poll in the Times suggests that we do.Labour is shown as a mere 6 points behind the Tories and shows Gordon Brown as

comfortably beating David Cameron as the leader seen as best able to handle the recession

More than half the public thinks that Mr Brown is the right leader to deal with the economy in recession, against a third for Mr Cameron. Mr Brown’s personal rating is also at its highest since July 2007, when he became Prime Minister. However, Mr Cameron is seen as better able to lead Britain forward after the next election

This is the smallest Tory lead since the March budget but the party will take comfort in the fact that the majority still want Cameron as the next PM.

Over at Political Betting Mike Smithson puts

part of the change is down to a hardening in the certainty to vote level of Labour supporters. This both gives them a boost and adds to the overall number of “voters” in the calculation thus diluting the Tory figure.

Glenrothes-the inquest

As promised an update on the Glenrothes result.

According to Peter Hoskin

The post mortem now begins for the other parties. All will be asking questions and having questions asked of them. The SNP: whether their nationalist approach works during an economic downturn, when the Scottish public may be less inclined to be cast adrift from Westminster and the cash it represents. The Tories: how to fashion a coherent message on the economy, on which they're currently being lorded over by the Government. And the Lib Dems: why they don't seem to be registering with the electorate at all.

Peter makes a good point as to how the other party's failed to make any real inroads into Labour in the midst of a financial crisis and the start of a massive downturn in the economy.

But perhaps for Labour John Craig sums it up quite well

What a change from the dismal defeat in Glasgow East on July 24, which triggered David Miliband's demand for change in his explosive Guardian newspaper article and a frenzied summer of Labour MPs calling on the Prime Minister to quit

So can we read anything into this?

John Harris is clear that it shows more about the SNP than Labour

the SNP may well fit this morning's favourite cliche, and be increasingly seen as the party of the establishment

But nationwide?

any Brown bounce is looking remarkably fragile. Recent work by the Glasgow-based psephologist John Curtice suggests that though Labour's poll ratings were boosted by their show of purposeful unity at their Manchester conference, and in spite of Brown's revived confidence ever since, their national figures have pretty much flatlined at around 31%

A shock that has taken the bookies by suprise

Certainly the result in Glenrothes took everyone by surprise not least the bookies who were all forecasting a tight race.

I will post later today about some of the implications and comments but initial thoughts seem to suggest not so much of the Brown bounce but a concentration on local issues,especially the performance of the SNP on the local council.

Could this crank up the chances of a Brown bounce early election?

Is Mandleson plotting an early election?

Whilst all eyes are focused on America,Iain Martin believes that certain people are plotting electorally on this side of the water.

The words "early election" are being mentioned in Labour circles. The theory is that this is being planned by the Dark Lord (Peter Mandelson, for it is he, the Real Deputy Prime Minister, First Mate on the SS Russian Oligarch, chief adviser to the First Lord of the Treasury and all round strategic whizz.) It is said by his admirers that he has worked out that Brown has no hope if he waits for an election in 2010 (when the economy will be deep in a long recession) and that going next April or May allows Brown to win a mandate to fight the recession against a Tory party which may not even by that point have worked out what its economic policy is. Some senior Tories are worried that their leadership is far too complacent.

Some truth perhaps?

Well there is no doubt that the architect of New Labour is not going to stand by and watch his baby vanish from under his eyes.It is also probably correct to assume that after 18 months of recession,the electorate are highly unlikely to vote for Brown

More evidence of the Brown bounce

This morning's Comres poll in the Independent must make worrying reading for the Tories.
It shows their lead over Labour down to just 8 points which woud result in a hung parliament.

The paper says that

Today's survey puts the Conservatives on 39 per cent, down two points on last month's poll, with Labour on 31 per cent, up two points. The Liberal Democrats are down two points on 16 per cent. It found there had been a shift towards Labour among male voters and that Tory support was dropping among the better-off AB social groups.

How Brown can take heart not from the bounce but from Canada

Peter Riddle examines the so called Brown bounce in the Times this morning and concludes that all is not as it seems

The Bounce he concludes is

is real but it is neither large nor unconditional enough for Labour to entertain realistic hopes that it has turned the corner.

People are already drawing parallels with Margaret Thatcher during the Falklands conflict and not only in the fact that she appeared to revel in the crisis.

However as Peter points out

Labour has advanced from a low of 26 to 27 per cent between May and August, according to the average of all published polls, to above 30 per cent in seven of the last eight polls, and an average of 31 to 32 per cent so far this month. But this has been largely at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, as the Tories have slipped only from 45 to 46 per cent to an average of 43 to 44 per cent.

Whereas in 1982

the Tories moved from just behind, or level pegging, with Labour and the then Alliance, at about 33 per cent, before the Falklands conflict to the mid40s afterwards, with Labour down to well under 30 per cent.

Labour though may take solice from Canada where the ruling party under Steven Harper from being in a position where it looked certain that they were going to lose the forthcoming election now looks like benefiting from being the man for a crisis.

How's about this for a prediction.Brown calls an early election before the effects of the recession bite home