Glenrothes-the inquest

As promised an update on the Glenrothes result.

According to Peter Hoskin

The post mortem now begins for the other parties. All will be asking questions and having questions asked of them. The SNP: whether their nationalist approach works during an economic downturn, when the Scottish public may be less inclined to be cast adrift from Westminster and the cash it represents. The Tories: how to fashion a coherent message on the economy, on which they're currently being lorded over by the Government. And the Lib Dems: why they don't seem to be registering with the electorate at all.

Peter makes a good point as to how the other party's failed to make any real inroads into Labour in the midst of a financial crisis and the start of a massive downturn in the economy.

But perhaps for Labour John Craig sums it up quite well

What a change from the dismal defeat in Glasgow East on July 24, which triggered David Miliband's demand for change in his explosive Guardian newspaper article and a frenzied summer of Labour MPs calling on the Prime Minister to quit

So can we read anything into this?

John Harris is clear that it shows more about the SNP than Labour

the SNP may well fit this morning's favourite cliche, and be increasingly seen as the party of the establishment

But nationwide?

any Brown bounce is looking remarkably fragile. Recent work by the Glasgow-based psephologist John Curtice suggests that though Labour's poll ratings were boosted by their show of purposeful unity at their Manchester conference, and in spite of Brown's revived confidence ever since, their national figures have pretty much flatlined at around 31%

A shock that has taken the bookies by suprise

Certainly the result in Glenrothes took everyone by surprise not least the bookies who were all forecasting a tight race.

I will post later today about some of the implications and comments but initial thoughts seem to suggest not so much of the Brown bounce but a concentration on local issues,especially the performance of the SNP on the local council.

Could this crank up the chances of a Brown bounce early election?

Back to reality.

The government delayed the Glenrothes by election until today thinking that the America election results would deflect any bad news if it was to lose in the Scottish constituency.

The race is certainly tighter than it was when the by lection was first called but all the indiocations are that the Brown bounce will come to an end today.

Alex Salmond is in bullish mood staking his reputation on an SNP victory,measnwhile Labour propelled its new TV star John Prescott into the constituency joining its candidate Lindsay Roy.

Whichever way this goes and the indication is that Labour will lose by a narrow margin,it is unlikely to change anything within the Labour party.

The financial crisis has at laset for the time been deflected the movement for a change of leader

Vote yes to spend more time at home

A rather strange story in the Telegraph this morning and one hopes this doesn't sum up the philosophy of the SNP

It carries an interview with its candidate in the forthcoming Glenrothes by election who has

admitted that he does not want to be an MP for more than five years because he would get homesick

and adds

Peter Grant told the Daily Telegraph that he is hoping that a 'yes' vote in Alex Salmond's promised independence referendum will mean he spends the minimum time possible at Westminster.

Should they or shouldn't they?

Martin Kettle's piece on the forthcoming Glenrothes by election will make for gloomy reading in Labour circles

Get it right, and the prime minister may live on to fight another day against his critics. Get it wrong, and Brown could hand his enemies the opportunity without which they probably cannot bring him down. It is not an exaggeration to say that the future of the Labour party will partly depend on the choice that he makes.

So what is the correct decision?

Most commentators think a delay is the right approach

Brown would at least give himself time to work some kind of change in the political weather. Delay would allow his autumn economic package, with its rumoured largesse on fuel bills to child benefit claimants and its possible stamp duty holiday to boost the housing market, to take effect in minds and wallets. Delay might allow the recent easing of the oil price to continue and to feed through into a more general sense that the worst of the recession may be over. Delay could enable Brown to strengthen his government in a reshuffle, or to bolster his authority with a strong conference season performance. Alternatively, something may just turn up.

But he reminds us

delaying a byelection goes against current Labour instincts about such matters, which are haunted by the loss of Brent East to the Liberal Democrats in 2003 - a byelection loss now put down by the party to the three-month gap between the death of Labour's Paul Daisley and polling day

And if Labour is going to lose well best get it out of the way