Get it right, and the prime minister may live on to fight another day against his critics. Get it wrong, and Brown could hand his enemies the opportunity without which they probably cannot bring him down. It is not an exaggeration to say that the future of the Labour party will partly depend on the choice that he makes.
So what is the correct decision?
Most commentators think a delay is the right approach
Brown would at least give himself time to work some kind of change in the political weather. Delay would allow his autumn economic package, with its rumoured largesse on fuel bills to child benefit claimants and its possible stamp duty holiday to boost the housing market, to take effect in minds and wallets. Delay might allow the recent easing of the oil price to continue and to feed through into a more general sense that the worst of the recession may be over. Delay could enable Brown to strengthen his government in a reshuffle, or to bolster his authority with a strong conference season performance. Alternatively, something may just turn up.
But he reminds us
delaying a byelection goes against current Labour instincts about such matters, which are haunted by the loss of Brent East to the Liberal Democrats in 2003 - a byelection loss now put down by the party to the three-month gap between the death of Labour's Paul Daisley and polling day
And if Labour is going to lose well best get it out of the way
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