Richards on why Brown will follow Sunny Jim

There is a good article in this week's New Statesman by Steve Richards in which he examines the prospects of an early election.

several cabinet ministers have raised the possibility with me recently. Perhaps this giddy ministerial excitement has been brought on by the hint of spring in the air and will soon pass. Even so, they made a compelling case.

The compelling case is the experiences of Jim Callaghan who turned down the chance to go to the country in 1978 instead adopting the strategy of wiating until the last possible moment and then seeing it blow up in his face in a winter of industrial unrest.

The mistake heralded 18 years of a Tory government and the destruction of the Labour party.

The state of the British economy will be the main factor in the election outcome.

writes Richards and it is difficult to beleive that it is going to be better in autumn 2009 than the spring of 2010.

There is another issue also that the party may have to contend with this year

The revelations about MPs’ expenses form a story with unpredictable consequences. When all the receipts are published, probably in July, they could cause mayhem, as voters contrast the apparent greed of their local MPs with their own more precarious prospects. So far cabinet ministers have been at the centre of the storm, but at least they have probably stayed within the absurd rules. What will happen if it emerges that some MPs broke the rules?

It is safe to suggest I feel that May 2010 will see a return to the hustings.