Is it enough?

Not surprisngly the papers are full of the Cameron speech from yesterday's Tory Spring conference.

With the latest polls showing an increasing narrowing of voters intentions,the question simply for Team Cameron is was it enough?

In another speech without notes,reminiscent of his 2007 conference appearance,David Cameron insisted that he has what it takes to run Britain.

It’s an election we have to win because the country is in a complete mess and it’s our patriotic duty to turn it around.”

However he admitted that voters are still unsure of the Tories,warning delegates that they still have to answer big questions about what the party stands for and whether it has the vision to run the country.

And in the face of the wipening out of at what one time looked an unassailable lead,yesterday's You Gov in the Sunday Times showing a 2 point margin must have seemed like a kick in the teeth for those attending.

Whether a video of a brooding Mr Brown with the words“five more years” flashing across it will be enough to satisfy the voters remains to be seen.

It appears though that the Tories are going to appeal once more to Middle England promising tax breaks for married couples.Hardly one thinks,a strategy to tackle the economic deficit

Memories of 1992

Today's must read article is surely in the Independent.

According to Dominic Lawson,The Conservatives should be praying to lose this election.

He harks back to 1992,an election that Neil Kinnock seemingly had in the bag only for votes to literally cahnge their mind as they entered the ballot box.What happened next

Within months of the Conservatives' improbable victory in the midst of a recession, the pound sterling had been vomited out by the European Union's Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM); and since our membership of this club had been hailed by Mr Major as the sole guarantor of our economic health and future prosperity, his party's reputation for competence was shredded beyond repair.

Is 2010 going to be the same? Will the Tories simply inherit an economic mess that they are going to be unable to sort out

Most likely, enough voters will be so desperate to see the back of Gordon Brown – the width and depth of the popular dislike of the Prime Minister inspires pollsters with awe – that David Cameron and George Osborne will get their chance to try to sort out the mess

What a day-Polls narrow,Heseltine puts the dampers on Cameron and Brown attacks civil servants

It was always going to be the big story of the morning as the new look Observer previews Andrew Rawnsley's book The End of the Party,which charts Labour's second and third terms in power.

The big revelation is that Gordon Brown's abusive behaviour and volcanic eruptions of foul temper left Downing Street staff so frightened that he received an unprecedented reprimand from the head of the civil service.

The Mail on Sunday has uncovered new evidence of Mr Brown’s extraordinary eruptions, including an incident in which he hurled a tirade of foul-mouthed abuse at Bank of England Governor Mervyn King in a stand-up row.

The Prime Minister though comes out fighting in the Indy.In an exclusive interview with the paper he says that he is frustrated with the way he is portrayed by what he sees as a "hostile" media.

"It is simply a lie to say that I've ever hit anybody in my life," Mr Brown said. "I may have done one or two good tackles at rugby, but the idea that is suggested in this so-called inside account is just ludicrous."

The question is what damage is the Rawnsley book going to do.Timed to push the relaunched Observer's sales figures up,its timing with the launch of the Labour campaign slogan will not have gone unnoticed.

The news that a

Paranoid Mr Brown grabbed an aide violently and shouted: 'They're out
to get me!' The raging PM thumped the rear of the front seat of his car so hard
that it scared the bodyguard sitting in it; while an aide sitting next to Mr
Brown thought the PM was going to smash him in the face.

is not going to go down well.

It's a shame for the party because the latest Sunday Times' poll from You Gov shows the polls narrowing.There is just a 6 per cent gap now and with Michael Heseltine's spectacular intervention in the Sunday Telegraph where he says that David Cameron will will not win a general election outright and will struggle to form a government,

His comments, at a meeting of party members in west London, reflect a growing anxiety among the leadership about the size of the task they still face to secure outright victory.

Jobless figures set to rise as the election looms

After yesterday's letter from 20 economists which the Chancellor robustly attacked earlier on the Today programme comes more bad news on the economic front.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD)are forecasting that just as the election campaign gears up,dole queues will increase to 2.8 million.

I think that it is safe to say that we have been spared the worst forecasts of unemployment made at the start of the financial crisis,but as many economists will tel you,unemployment will lag behind economic performance.

The forecast says that at least a quarter of firms are still planning to shed positions.

John Philpott, chief economic adviser at the CIPD, said: "The UK jobs market is still on the ropes, with a public sector fall in employment now a reality as it feels the impact of the longest recession in modern times. Despite the jobs market proving resilient in recent months, this represents a mere pause for breath with the number of redundancies easing in the private sector and spending cuts yet to be felt by large swathes of the public sector.

Com Res poll on the narrowing contest

John Rentoul gives us a glimpse of the latest Com Res poll which will be in tomorrow's Independent.

According to John it

will provide an important take on the "narrowing race" narrative.

The survey also asked whether,Gordon Brown has a warm human side to him and that David Cameron is a slick salesman but I worry about what he is like underneath

Election counts saved

Some good news from Iain Dale for those who want the election night drama to continue

Jack Straw has just announced he has added his name to an Opposition amendment aimed at forcing councils to hold election counts on the night itself. There will now be a vote and the vote will be a free one. This means that legislation is now likely to be amended. Electoral Registration officers had better take note.
Well done to Jack Straw, and even more well done to Jonathan Isaby for launching the campaign which has now culminated in success.

Is 1983 the election to remember for Brown?

There is an interesting article by Mike Smithson who asks whether Gordon Brown can pin his hopes on a shock election result?

He reminds us that in 1970 and 1992 the results defied the polls.

In the former Heath’s Tories came to power against most expectations and in the latter John Major totally defied the polls to hold on.

But more importantly

The one election where Labour really did defy the pollsters is not one it likes being reminded of - Mrs. Thatcher’s landslide in 1983. All the firms understated Michael Foot’s Labour though they still finished on just 28.3% - fifteen points behind.

Not May not April but June

So far thois week we have had Bob Ainsworth giving away the 6th OF May as the election date and Benedict Brogan speculating that it could be April.

What about June.

This frm Tory MP Nadine Dorries

Overheard just now (by me) in the ladies loo, was one lobbyist to another, quoting a Labour MP, “he said it could be June”.
'No it won’t', thought I, not unless Gordon really has lost the plot.

And she speculates

Imagine the scenario: Labour councillors are wiped out during the council elections in May. As soon as their defeat has been announced on national TV, on every radio and in every newspaper, with headlines declaring ‘Labour Massacre’, and Nick Robinson has stood outside No 10 declaring ‘It’s impossible to imagine how on earth Labour can recover from this‘, Gordon Brown calls the General Election and asks all his activists and councillors to pick themselves up, dust themselves off and start all over again.

22nd April

Although it seems we are all gearing up to a May 6th election,Ben Brogan at the Telegraph is not yet convinced after yesterday's growth figures

I gather there is lots of work being done at CCHQ to prepare for an election on April 22, which would be before the next round of GDP figures – that double dip that Alistair Darling is worried about – are published. The Opposition has been told by the Palace authorities to stand by for a parliamentary announcement at Easter, whatever that means. April 22 looks a bit tight given the Easter recess, but it would at least spare us a drawn out campaign.

The 6th May it is

Has the biggest secret of the year just slipped out.

According to the Telegraph,Chris Bryant, the Europe Minister let slip that the election is to be on May 6th.

Mr Bryant was discussing Britain’s relations with Latin America at Canning House, a diplomatic think-tank, with a group of envoys and academics.Referring to recent tensions between Britain and countries including Venezuala, Mr Bryant said: “I hope that by the time of the general election on May 6, relations will have improved.”

1979 v 2009

Having managed to avoid most of yesterday's Thatcher Fest(for those who missed it, it was the 30th anniversary of her first election victory),I did read Mike Smithson who has

been trying to think of the lessons that might help us to predict the next general election

There are some similarities,notably an unelected Labour Prime Minister going to the country for the first time and seemingly waiting until the last possible moment.

The common themes are very marked. A possibility of the return of the Tory government; a Labour party that had some massive challenges on the economy to face and a big squeeze on the Liberals.

But perhaps more importantly

On a wider issue there’s little doubt that the outgoing Labour PM, Jim Callaghan, was much more popular than Gordon Brown is today. Amazingly given the final outcome he seemed to hold big polling leads on the “who would be best PM”. Brown used to have that in his favour but no longer

One year 6 days and counting

If James Forsyth over at Coffee House is correct then we are exactly 371 days away from the general election.

We know the date of at least one election in 2010: the locals will be on May 6h. There also has to be a general election by Thursday the third of June.
It is hard to see how the government could recover from a drubbing in May to win an election in June. It is almost certain that Brown won’t want to go after May 6th.

Premature?

As the Times reports

William Hague yesterday became the first member of the Tory leadership to predict a Conservative victory next year and said that his party was psychologically prepared for government.

and as a sign of this increased confidence,he has revealed some of the conversations that the party has had with the civil service

Mr Cameron’s team has instructed the Permanent Secretary of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to prepare for a “national security council”. Headed by Mr Cameron, it would include the defence, foreign, home and energy secretaries. Breaking with Labour’s “sofa government” it would be a decision-making body staffed by the Cabinet Office secretariat, he said. Putting the Foreign Office on notice, Mr Hague said: “That is one of the things we would expect them to be prepared for when we come to office.”

Richards on why Brown will follow Sunny Jim

There is a good article in this week's New Statesman by Steve Richards in which he examines the prospects of an early election.

several cabinet ministers have raised the possibility with me recently. Perhaps this giddy ministerial excitement has been brought on by the hint of spring in the air and will soon pass. Even so, they made a compelling case.

The compelling case is the experiences of Jim Callaghan who turned down the chance to go to the country in 1978 instead adopting the strategy of wiating until the last possible moment and then seeing it blow up in his face in a winter of industrial unrest.

The mistake heralded 18 years of a Tory government and the destruction of the Labour party.

The state of the British economy will be the main factor in the election outcome.

writes Richards and it is difficult to beleive that it is going to be better in autumn 2009 than the spring of 2010.

There is another issue also that the party may have to contend with this year

The revelations about MPs’ expenses form a story with unpredictable consequences. When all the receipts are published, probably in July, they could cause mayhem, as voters contrast the apparent greed of their local MPs with their own more precarious prospects. So far cabinet ministers have been at the centre of the storm, but at least they have probably stayed within the absurd rules. What will happen if it emerges that some MPs broke the rules?

It is safe to suggest I feel that May 2010 will see a return to the hustings.

Life on Mars

We are definately returnoing to the 1970's.It seems the Tories are even dragging out their old 1979 campaign posters now