The marginal battle ground

As political analysts recognise,the election will be won and lost in a few marginal seats.

It comes as no suprise then that the latest You Gov poll in this morning's Times puts the two main parties neck and neck in these seats

The poll shows that the switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is about 1.5 to 2 points higher in the battleground seats than nationally. That might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, smaller than many in the party would hope after the big spending on these targets. It might be enough only to take the Tories to the threshold of the 326 seats they need for a bare overall majority in the Commons

As Mike Smithson says

All this is going to provide real heart for Labour supporters and add to the jitters at Cameron towers. It’s also going to make the coming campaign that bit more exciting.

2009 election not off the agenda yet

You may have thought that an election in 2009 was off the agenda.

But over at political betting Mike Smithson poses a interesting concept.

What happens if the recession - now official - gets worse and it’s clear that the only way of restoring confidence is by having a new government with a new mandate?

and adds

Could an election, for instance, be demanded by the IMF as part of a UK-wide bailout package

Interesting