View from the marginals-A hung Parliament or damnright apathy

Despite the fact that the Tories have a lead over the other parties,the vagaries of the elctoral system in this country mean that the party has to do a great deal more to turn that into the majority of parliamentary seats.

It's the marginals that will swing the result of this election and the FT's Alex Barker has set out on a tour of them.Today it is the two seats in Dudley and the nearby marginal in Halesowen & Rowley Regis.

Here are his conclusions:

1.A mood is running against Labour but not with the Tories.

2.There is an unexpected yearning for a hung parliament and

3.There is very little excitement about the election.

Not bod

The marginal battle ground

As political analysts recognise,the election will be won and lost in a few marginal seats.

It comes as no suprise then that the latest You Gov poll in this morning's Times puts the two main parties neck and neck in these seats

The poll shows that the switch of voters from Labour to the Tories is about 1.5 to 2 points higher in the battleground seats than nationally. That might be worth an extra 20 MPs to the Conservatives, smaller than many in the party would hope after the big spending on these targets. It might be enough only to take the Tories to the threshold of the 326 seats they need for a bare overall majority in the Commons

As Mike Smithson says

All this is going to provide real heart for Labour supporters and add to the jitters at Cameron towers. It’s also going to make the coming campaign that bit more exciting.

Two conflicting polls

The Sunday Mirror is perhaps not the best of reading for David Cameron.

According to figures from ComRes,the Tory lead has slipped 4 points on 38 per cent – nine ahead of Labour’s unchanged at 29 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 19 per cent.

So says the paper those results would produce a

hung Parliament, with the Tories five seats short of what they need to get in to Downing Street.

However it is ICM's poll of the marginals which might appear more in favour in Witney.97 Labour held marginals show the Tories on 40 per cent,(+9.2),Labour at 37 per cent(-7.4)and the Lib Dems on 14 per cent(-3.8).

If it is the marginals where this election is to be won then this is devestating reading for the Labour party