Tories pulling away again

Two opinion polls in the Sunday's are suggesting that the recent claw back in Labour support may have been a flash in the pan.

A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times shows the Conservatives pulling away from Labour,with the the Conservative's lead having risen to five points compared with a margin of just two points over Labour when it was conducted last weekend.

Meanwhile an ICM poll for the News of the World put the Conservatives on 40 per cent (up three points on a poll by the same company a fortnight ago), nine points clear of Labour on 31 per cent.

A hung or not hung Parliament

Whilst on the subject of elections (2) whilst many will be looking at the Guardian's poll,also take a look at the Sun's daily You Guv which unlike the Guardian's has taken the temperature during "bullygate"

It shows a 12 point Tory lead with both the Lib Dems and the Tories taking votes off Labour.

Two conflicting polls

The Sunday Mirror is perhaps not the best of reading for David Cameron.

According to figures from ComRes,the Tory lead has slipped 4 points on 38 per cent – nine ahead of Labour’s unchanged at 29 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 19 per cent.

So says the paper those results would produce a

hung Parliament, with the Tories five seats short of what they need to get in to Downing Street.

However it is ICM's poll of the marginals which might appear more in favour in Witney.97 Labour held marginals show the Tories on 40 per cent,(+9.2),Labour at 37 per cent(-7.4)and the Lib Dems on 14 per cent(-3.8).

If it is the marginals where this election is to be won then this is devestating reading for the Labour party

Some thoughts to ponder on the Guardian poll

A couple of good interpretations of the Guardian's ICM poll over at political betting.

First of all despite the latest poll showing a 12 point lead,Mike Smithson wonders whether it will be enough on the arithmetic of the constituencies.

David Cameron’s Conservatives are going to win a majority then they will need a total of 325 seats or more. And if you input the numbers from today’s Guardian ICM poll into the UKPollingReport you get a projected total of 353 seats - or 28 above the magic number. This gives a comfortable overall majority of 56.

But it is not as straightforward as that with the situation complicated in Scotland by the SNP and the Lib Dems on this side of the border.

Secondly the poll was quite damning of Gordon Brown's leadership with two thirds suggesting the party would be better without him.

The survey suggests

It gives the paper the peg to highlight the Brown issue and you can see these numbers being used by the PM’s opponents within the party if at some stage it’s thought that getting him out might enhance Labour’s chances.

More bad poll news

Following on from yesterdays Indie Poll this morning sees more confirmation that the electorate are getting rather fed up with Gordon Brown.

The Guardian reports its latest ICM poll which gives David Cameron a 12 pointy lead over the Labour party up 6 points from the same position last month.

According to the survey

Voters think that Gordon Brown's high-profile battle to turn around the economy is doomed,with only 31% think the prime minister's strategy will make things better. Most, 64%, think it will either achieve nothing or even make the situation worse.

And maybe more worrying for the party is that

Even Labour's supporters are doubtful: only 48% of people who voted for the party in 2005 believe that the government's measures will work.

The survey also picks up the fact that people are unhappy with the bank rescues which must be a concedrn as the party has consistently aired the reasons for it in the media.

Another day another Poll but perhaps good news for Gordon

More bad poll news this time in the Guardian whose latest ICM poll reveals that regardless of who is leading the Labour party,David Cameron would be our next Prime Minister

The Tories are on 44%, up one, Labour on 29%, up one, and the Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 19%. At a general election, that would translate into the loss of 140 Labour seats and a majority of more than 100 for the Tories. Though Labour's share of the vote has crept up in the last two months, the result is still its worst August rating since the early 1980s

Over at Political betting Mike Smithson thinks that it is not all bad news though.

This is NOT the “named leader question” which ICM and Populus asked regularly in the months upto Brown’s arrival at Number 10. This sought to establish people’s voting intention with the the different leaders

.and adding

Back in the Brown build-up days there were several polls which had those responding saying he would be a better PM than Cameron but at the same time showing that Labour would be worse off when the voting intention question was asked.

Poll gives Labour some hope in Glasgow

As the Sunday Times claims that

Every Labour MP will be ordered to campaign in Glasgow East amid mounting panic that the party could lose the by-election in the constituency this month.

and

Party whips are launching an extraordinary operation to ensure that every minister and backbencher hits the streets on the tough estates of Easterhouse to try to stave off the threat from the Scottish National party (SNP).

Good news from the government as a poll in the Telegraph says that Labourwill win the seat.

An ICM poll conducted in the constituency puts the party 14 points ahead of the Nationalists.Bear in mind though that at the last general election that lead was 45 points

Tories 16 clear and the Lib Dems catching up

More gloom for Labour in the latest opinion poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning.

Accoding to ICM,Labour are 16 points off the Tories who have 42 points.More worryingly the Lib Dems are closing the gap on 2nd place only 5 points behind and the closest they have been to Labour for 20 years

Interestingly though it also contains good news as 65% of peopl support the increase in etention limit to 42 days.Perhaps the PM is correct in saying that he will make the unpopular decisions and be backed

Latest polls confirm Labour meltdown

Even more bad opinion poll news this morning.

The Guardian carries the lastest ICM poll which nationally shows the Conservatives with an 14 point lead over Labour.Its latest figures put the Tories up 2 at 41 and Labour down 7 at 27 from its last poll

Public confidence in Labour's ability to govern has dropped heavily on a series of key measures. Voters are also turning their back on Gordon Brown personally: 75% of people who voted Labour in 2005 now think that Tony Blair was a better prime minister. Overall, voters also place Brown as a leader behind Thatcher and even John Major.

says the paper

Meanwhile the Independent carries the latest from Crewe and Nantwich which

puts the Conservative Party on 48 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent and other parties on 5 per cent. The projected 14 per cent swing to the Tories would easily allow David Cameron's party to overturn the 7,780 majority Labour enjoyed at the last general election.

Latest polls more bad news for Labour

The latest opinion polls this morning show the Tory lead growing as we approach the Crewe and Nantwich by election.

The latest You Gov poll in this mornings Sunday Times puts the Tories on 45%,Labour on 25% and the Lib Dems on 18%

This would give the Tories a majority of 150 if repaeted in a general election.

Meanwhile the News of the World carries an ICM poll in the Crewe and Nantwich by election which puts the Tories on 45% and Labour on 37%

The paper says

That's double the gap of a week ago—and if carried through to the ballot box on Thursday, it would give the Tories their first by-election GAIN in 26 years.
It's a devastasting blow for Brown and—says Nick Sparrow, managing director of pollsters ICM—leaves him "staring defeat in the face at the next general election".

adding

The poll also reveals almost half of voters think Brown's £2.7billion giveaway this week to compensate for scrapping the 10p tax rate was the RIGHT thing to do—but 59 per cent say it's still a BRIBE.
And an astonishing one in four say it has made them even LESS likely to vote Labour on Thursday

Gap closing according to ICM

It has been a long time since opinion polls have given good news to the Government but this morning's ICM poll in the Guardian at least gives a small hint of a turn around

The poll, carried out over the weekend as Gordon Brown returned from his three-day visit to America, puts support for Labour on 34%, up five points from last month's Guardian poll. Conservative support, at 39%, is down three points. The Liberal Democrats, at 19%, are down two points on last month.

Interesting says the paper

Today's findings reflect a widespread public disillusionment with all three main parties, just over a week before local elections that will test Gordon Brown's authority. David Cameron has increased his lead as the nation's preferred prime minister but support for him still lags behind the Conservative party's rating.

Mike Smithson over at political betting offers a word of caution though

A rogue poll is one where you do not agree with the numbers.

Falling markets and falling opinion polls

Carried out before the latest turmoil in the financial markets but the Guardian shows another double digit lead for the Tories

This morning's paper reports an ICM poll which puts the Tories 13 points clear,three points up on the last poll.

Is this simply a reaction to the budget?

Today's findings suggest voters are losing faith in the government's ability to steer Britain through difficult economic times, in spite of assertions that the UK is well-placed to ride out global turmoil

says the paper.

Iain Martin writes that

On this side of the Atlantic it is starting to dawn on those who thought this would have no impact in the 'real economy' that they were mistaken. The rising cost of mortgages is about to hit millions of Britons as the era of easy money unwinds. Last week's budget now seems to belong to another world

Or is it something more substantial?

The coalition of voters that put Labour in power three times is falling apart. Even the party's bedrock support is beginning to crack

. writes Julian Glover in the same paper

But at leastIain Dale is crowing

So the Tory lead seems to have come entirely from Labour switchers. These are the people the Tories really need to attract in the key marginals. In the past, whenever the Tories have built up a good lead, it has been eroded over the ensuing few months. Let's see if this time the party can develop a strategy to keep the switchers - and keep them for good.