Some thoughts to ponder on the Guardian poll

A couple of good interpretations of the Guardian's ICM poll over at political betting.

First of all despite the latest poll showing a 12 point lead,Mike Smithson wonders whether it will be enough on the arithmetic of the constituencies.

David Cameron’s Conservatives are going to win a majority then they will need a total of 325 seats or more. And if you input the numbers from today’s Guardian ICM poll into the UKPollingReport you get a projected total of 353 seats - or 28 above the magic number. This gives a comfortable overall majority of 56.

But it is not as straightforward as that with the situation complicated in Scotland by the SNP and the Lib Dems on this side of the border.

Secondly the poll was quite damning of Gordon Brown's leadership with two thirds suggesting the party would be better without him.

The survey suggests

It gives the paper the peg to highlight the Brown issue and you can see these numbers being used by the PM’s opponents within the party if at some stage it’s thought that getting him out might enhance Labour’s chances.