Difficult times * 9

Just listening to the World at One.Some of the highlights following last night' defeat include Alex Salmond caling Labour stone age politicians in a computer age and saying that they no longer have activists but various hangers on.

Alistair Darling is wheeled out as the senior spokesman continuing the hype bole that the reason is the economy and that the party needs to do everything that it can to help the public face the economic hardships ahead.

Graham Stringer hints that a leadership election should now take place and urges the men in grey suits to talk to the PM and explain that the party needs a change of policies and that may mean a change of leader.

Lord Darzi meanwhile be lives that the parliamentary party has no stomach for a leadership contest but despite that Brown should leave on his own accord

Most worryingly though,Gordon Brown's appearance in front of the BBC cameras simply spent nearly three minutes repeating the phrases that he was guiding us through the tough times,he was here for the duration,that the country was best placed.Remarkably he managed to use the phrase "difficult times" 9 times

Grey suits are waiting

Martin Kettle makes the disaster of last night appear even worse in his 10 things that went wrong for Labour last night

Here they are:

1.It lost its core vote
2.No Labour MP is safe
3.It lost despite having a good candidate and campaign
4.Most pundits thought Labour would win
5.Turnout was higher than predicted
6.The SNP are now dominant in Scotland
7.The Tories snaffled the Lib Dem vote
8.Brown has to face the unions at the weekend
9.Brown looks like a lame duck
10.Brown's leadership will be under threat

Call for the men in the grey suits

Redwood spot on -its the economy

Much as I don't agree with a lot that he says,I think that John Redwood has got it spot on when he says

The problem is not Gordon Brown today. The problem is the mess Blair/Brown made of the economy in the period 2001-2006. The problem is the inflation they have unleashed, and the sharp slowdown they have now generated. That is why I do not think Labour have begun to learn the lessons, because they still cling to the view that the problem is of foreign origin, and that the UK is well placed to deal with it.

The question of course is what he can do?

Glasgow turns

I woke up suddenly at around 1.30 this morning.Maybe a premonition but going down stairs and turning on Sky news reporting that there was a recount in Glasgow East meant that my sixth sense was correct..

The fact that Labour had requested the recount suggested that they had come unstuck and after around half an hour of listening to Adam Boulton reporting on nothing,it was clear that the SNP had won.

I switched to BBC news and Douglas Alexander skillfully trying to avoid the question of when the party intervenes to get rid of Gordon.Somehow the cries of collective responsibility seemed somewhat shallow

Turning over a 13,000 majority had confounded all the pundits.Turnout was higher than expected which would in normal circumstances have helped the Labour party.However the reports were that it was higher in the middle class wards which suggested a swing towards the nationalists.

I switched to BBC news and Douglas Alexander skillfully trying to avoid the question of when the party intervenes to get rid of Gordon.Somehow the cries of collective responsibility seemed somewhat shallow


Is this the most cataclysmic defeat so far for Brown? Suggestions are that this was not a vote for Scottish Nationalism but an anti government vote on its inability to help the population with the rising fuel and food prices.

Des Browne is on Radio 4 at the moment bleating about relaunching and listening and telling us that people won't vote for divided parties.David Cameron is calling for an immediate election before he sets out for his haunted cottage

Expect a busy day.

Labour at a squeeze in Glasgow East

The voters of Glasgow East are going to the polls today.The campaign has seen an amazing transformation from being the final nail in the coffin for Gordon Brown and the continued rise in the SNP to a lacklustre event with the Labour majority in tact.

This has been no doubt in part to the choice of Labour candidate Margaret Curran who despite a shaky start( she was remember only the fifth choice for the seat) has demonstrated all the attributes of a solid Labour candidate.

The SNP's message has been lost on the working class vote of the area,and despite David Cameron's visit to the constituency and his launch of personal responsibility,the get Gordon out vote doesn't appear to have materialised.

This morning's Independent reports that the nationalists are far from conceding,however most of the commentators are predicting a Labour win.

Politics Home's panel are predicting a Labour win albeit with a reduced majority.

Niall Paterson is standing by his original prediction,a labour majority but with the Nationalists closing in,mainly due to the effect of the Glasgow holiday's.

So the Brown out brigade may have to wait until the party conference before striking

Labour odds on to win in Glasgow

William Hill seems to have decided who is going to win in Glasgow East on Thursday.

Here are its latest odds (HT-Politics Home)

Labour 1-3
SNP 9-4
Tories 33-1
Lib Dems 50-1

Poll gives Labour some hope in Glasgow

As the Sunday Times claims that

Every Labour MP will be ordered to campaign in Glasgow East amid mounting panic that the party could lose the by-election in the constituency this month.

and

Party whips are launching an extraordinary operation to ensure that every minister and backbencher hits the streets on the tough estates of Easterhouse to try to stave off the threat from the Scottish National party (SNP).

Good news from the government as a poll in the Telegraph says that Labourwill win the seat.

An ICM poll conducted in the constituency puts the party 14 points ahead of the Nationalists.Bear in mind though that at the last general election that lead was 45 points

Alternate Whips and thoughts of retirement

Hats off to the Mail's Ben Brogan who has discovered that

Gordon Brown's chums have set up a parallel Whips' operation that answers to the Prime Minister rather than Mr Hoon. It is being organised by Nick Brown, the Deputy Chief Whip, and includes both Whips and non-Whips who have in common their unquestioning loyalty to the PM. Key figures in this operation include the former whip and minister George Mudie, Mr Brown's PPS Ian Austin, as well as Kevan Jones and Helen Jones, both members of the six-strong parliamentary committee who act as shop stewards for the PLP. Others in this group include Mark Tami and Wayne David, Whips who were among the coup plotters who helped do in Tony Blair and were rewarded with Government jobs, and Tom Watson, seen by many MPs as the 2006 coup's enforcer who is now the blogging minister in the Cabinet Office.

Not only that but according to John Kampfner writing in the Telegraph says that for Labour MP's talking about Glasgow East

the word "meltdown" is on their lips. Evidence suggests they are running ahead of themselves, consumed in a gloom that is only partially rational, but the fear gives weight to the reality.
On the ground, many local Labour parties are effectively moribund. Much of the work is now done centrally, by email shots, social networking sites and telephone canvassing, but the financial state of the party nationally is so parlous that even much of this work is in jeopardy.

and

Several senior figures I have spoken to in recent weeks say they are considering standing down before the next election. This is a natural process, but such a retirement process accelerates as the prospect of opposition beckons.

Why Labour has already lost Glasgow

As one by election comes to an end,another probably far more important one looms.

Writing on Ft.com Harry Reid sets the scene

I think Labour has already failed the real test of Glasgow East. The state of the constituency is a testament to political failure on a depressing scale. The statistics are dire. Male life expectancy is 63, which is 14 years below the UK average. Unemployment runs at 25 per cent and about 40 per cent of the constituents live on benefits. About 40 per cent of the children live in workless households. Sadly, “household” is not always the most appropriate term. The teenage pregnancy rate is 40 per cent above the national average.

and reminds us that

These appalling indices point to those living the dependency culture on the margins of our society. Yet just a few generations ago Glasgow was the greatest industrial city of the British empire. At one time it produced half the world’s ships and a third of its railway locomotives. It could be argued that many people in the UK enjoyed a prosperity that was in part built on the gargantuan efforts of industrial Glasgow.

Of cause Labour cannoy be completely to balme for the statistics,The Tory government of the 80's can be blamed to some extent for the loss of the industrial base.Nevertheless it is a sad indicement of the country that these pockets exist in the 21st century and not just in Glasgow but other cities in the UK.

Why Glasgow may not be the end for Brown

Distinguished political journalists are postponing the start of their holidays in case there is a bloodbath. By contrast, some ministers are leaving for their foreign destinations early, unwilling to be close to a microphone to defend Mr Brown if Labour loses says Steve Richards in the Independent this morning

But he doesn't think that Glasgow East will be the end for Gordon.Labour may well win but if they lose

Exhausted ministers are not going to mount a coup in early August. They are desperate for a break, and for some time to reflect. The weekend's policy forum in the immediate aftermath of the by-election will be the opportunity for much behind-the-scenes gossip about the party's future and that of the leader, but there is already much gossip on these themes every day of the week. If there were no by-election taking place, such gossip would still persist.

I agree to a point with Steve ,and of course if Labour wins,which is not improbable, then the issue will go away,in the short term

However it is the media that may well set the agenda.A quiet August with politicians away leaves the media with much to speculate and few around to defend.By the time the politicians return in September,the momentum may be too much if Labour loses

Politics Home predicts Labour will lose in Glasgow

Politics home's Phi's 100 is predicting that Labour will lose the Glasgow East by election to the Scottish Nationalists

A substantial majority of the panel is forecasting a victory for the Nationalists over the Government in the Glasgow seat which Labour would normally regard as very safe. Most (fifty five per cent) think it will be a SNP win with a narrow majority. A further ten per cent of the panel believe that the SNP will win comfortably.

The election will be held on the 24th July just three weeks after the sitting MP David Marshall announced that he was stepping down due to ill health.The Labour party hope that a quick by election will catch the opposition parties on the hop.

This prediction from a panel that already claim some notable correct predictions will increase the pressure on Gordon Brown