The many colours of Ed

It is behind the paywall but there is a brilliant piece in this morning's Times by Philip Collins.

Since he won the party leadership this time last year, writes Philip, Ed Miliband’s palette has been full of colour.

He came to the leadership as Green Ed,...but as soon as Mr Miliband had cleverly mobilised union votes to beat his brother he was christened Red Ed by his opponents, not all of whom were in the Labour Party

But the colours are changing again

Recently, there has been Blue Ed who is anxious about the lost institutions of the decent working class and the assault wreaked by capitalism on settled communities. Blue Ed wants to restore individual responsibility and contribution.

and for the present we now have purple?

Today Purple Ed has published the foreword to a book of that colour. The Purple Book contains many variations but one linking theme,that the previous Labour Government hoarded too much power.

and for the future

If an outline doesn’t emerge soon, he will end up with my son’s triceratops. Take a bit of green, a bit of red, a bit of blue, a bit of yellow and a bit of purple, mix them all up in a big splodge and what do you get? You get Brown.

Ed plans moves to weaken the union vote

The FT's Jim Pickard reveals that Labour leader Ed Miliband plans to reduce union influence over leadership contests.

Writing on the paper's Westminster blog,he says that

"Miliband wants to set up a “registered supporters scheme” allowing thousands of people to vote in future leadership elections. Their votes will be cast within the “affiliated organisations” section, which comprises a third of the total vote."

According to Jim,

"The obvious symbolism is that this is a dilution of the brothers’ power. As no one will ever forget, Ed won the leadership after the main unions clubbed together in his favour in a transparent attempt to thwart his elder brother." and he adds that

Miliband will get rid of the discredited system that allows people to have one more vote in leadership elections. If you belong to eight unions and the Fabian society, for example, that would currently give you nine votes. This is being swept away.

The sinking ship?

If the front page of the Guardian is to be believed then the Labour party seems to have made up its mind about the next election.

The report by Martin Kettle and Nicholas Watt suggests that record numbers of Labour MPs are applying to sit in the House of Lords after the next general election.

In the clearest indication to date that increasing numbers of Labour figures believe the party is heading for a heavy defeat at the hands of David Cameron, the Guardian has learned that at least 52 MPs have formally approached Downing Street to be given places in the upper house.

Back to reality for Labour

The past three weeks has seen a hiatus in what you would term real politics yet next week sees the European and local elections.

There is quite a remarkable leader in the Times this morning which suggests that Gordon Brown might have only days as Prime Minister.

A week today the country goes to the polls for European and local elections that will almost certainly result in an historic drubbing for Gordon Brown's Labour Party.

adding that

The likes of John Denham and Jack Straw, David Miliband and James Purnell, John Hutton and Hazel Blears, Geoff Hoon and Alistair Darling must spend the next week asking themselves what they will do in the event of a shattering defeat.

For the paper the choice is clear.Either some must resign and probably trigger an leadership campaign which will be won by Alan Johnson or they close ranks around Brown on the basis that economic recovery will save him in 2010.

The question is now whether any of them is prepared to act. For a long while they have steadfastly maintained, at least in public, that the cost of removing the Prime Minister from office was greater than the benefit. Perhaps the verdict of the electorate will steel one or more of them to speak the truth about power.

Kenny's comments should be followed carefully

Paul Kenny's comments that up to 50 labour MP's should stand ought to worry the party.

The general secretary of the GMB, said he would be "amazed" if the controversy over expenses did not result in more than 20 per cent of all MPs either standing down, retiring or losing their seats at the next election.

Kenny is a lifelong Labour Party member and a strong supporter of the links between the Labour Party and the trade unions.

He also warned Gordon Brown speaking on the World at one that he must ensure that Cabinet ministers who have abused the expenses system should be treated just as severely as backbench MPs.

Many will think that the comment was aimed at Hazel Blears,the cabinet minister under most pressure over the expenses scandal.It is unlikely that the head of one of the main funders of the party will be ignored

I have a feeling that the consequences of the Gurkha vote are going to run and run and may well be the signal for another round of leadership speculation in the Labour party.

This post from Labour List maybe sums up the feeling from within

The Gurkha defeat doesn't make for pleasant reading for those of us who delight in irritating the rest of the blogosphere by supporting our Labour Government.

First - it's embarassing. Governments with majorities in excess of 60 should be able to muster the bodies to defeat any opposition motion - in fact, the last one lost was in 1978, when the government didn't have a working majority.
Secondly, the rebellion contains a lot of very moderate and respectable voices from our party. People like Andrew Smith, Keith Vaz and Stephen Pound are not rebels for all seasons: when they stand up and say that there's something wrong, they deserve fair hearing.
Thirdly, the sight of Cameron and Clegg standing together in the most literal sense outside of Parliament is the starkest sign yet of the crystalization of a political idea in the public mind: that the government is beleaguered, desparately unpopular, and is seemingly set upon certain courses that garner almost universal opposition.
Fourthly - and perhaps most importantly - it was entirely unnecessary. The government could easily have taken the opposite decision on the Gurkhas; in fact, I'm baffled as to why it didn't. There is no obvious and pressing reason why only a certain number of Gurkhas who retired before 1997 can settle in the UK, and I can't see what political or policy victory the government thought it could have made out of contending otherwise.

Now we have ballot box tampering

And it goes on for the Labour party.

This time comes news that the planned hustings in Erith and Thamesmead this evening have been cancelled as certain irregularities have been discovered.

There is to be an invetsigation by Ray Collins, the party's general secretary after it has been discovered that a ballot box had been tampered with.

The selection of a candidate for this seat has been dogged with controversy being centred around claims that the party machine is seeking to impose a central candidate on the constituency.

The sitting candidate John Austin has complianed to the party in particular about a speech by Tessa Jowell,supporting Georgia Gould, the 22-year-old daughter of Lord Gould, which was said to breach parliamentary convention.

Georginia is not one of the eight candidates standing.

With comparison being made to the 1980's and the hijacking of the constituencies by the left,the Times sums up the problems for the party

The national party should not just investigate the vote; it should investigate how a constituency of such importance could have been left to rot like this. And the local party should reflect that what it needs is not fewer outsiders like Ms Gould, but far more of them.

Harman planning a cue

This morning's Independent claims that deputy Labour leader Harriet Harman is planning a strategy to take over from Gordon Brown when the Prime Minister is finally toppled.

According to an article by Nigel Morris, Deputy Political Editor

Last week Ms Harman launched an outspoken attack in a cabinet meeting on the culture of greed in the City, calling for a retrospective clawback of the bonuses paid to executives in banks bailed out by the taxpayer.

and he adds that

Her comments, which rapidly became public, put her at odds with colleagues who argued that bankers’ contracts could not be torn up and that such action would wreck Labour’s reputation for being business-friendly. It also went far beyond Mr Brown’s preference for a clamp down on future bonuses rather than those that have already been paid.

With a run of disastrous polls it is not sup rising that the senior members of the party are looking to a post election future.

It is becoming highly unlikely that the next Labour leader will be Prime Minister but the attractions of Harman playing the Michael Howard role must seem attractive to the party whilst new blood rises through the ranks

Oxford Reds

With many columnists writing over the weekend that last week's events marked the end of Labour,it wasn't long before the speculation starts over their new leader.

Mike Smithson ,as ever, is quick off the mark postulating that to shadow a new Oxford PM,the part will need one of their own.

Step forward three candidates,Ed Miliband,Ed Balls and James Purnell who all have attended that great institution.

As Mike points out

All three read the same degree, Politics, Philosophy and Economics, that David Cameron (Brasenose) did at Oxford and all three are said to be working hard building alliances within the party so that they can launch their bids when the vacancy occurs.

And that all Labour PM's who have commanded a large majority ie Blair and Atlee also attended.

One grassroots Labour member is clearly not happy

As a former Chairman of a Labour Constituency I'm dismayed at the lack of fight that is currently being displayed by Cabinet members. The prospect of a Cameron Government in the current economic climate should be concentrating the minds of all Labour supporters and helping to build a broad determination to deliver a fourth term of office. But some cabinet members appear to be positioning themselves in the event of a Labour defeat at the next election, rather than avoiding such a calamity.

Those are the words of Kevin Cochrane writing over at Labourlist.org

Kevin who is clearly a grassroots angry member continues that

At present, we have not shown that we have grasped the level of public antipathy towards the faceless bureaucrats who benefited from the great Thatcherite sale of public industries which led to less choice and poor delivery coupled with rising prices.

Phillips strikes at racism in the Labour party

After a week of Obama mania,the story on the front of this mornings Times is sure to heap some embarrasment on the Labour party.

The paper reports that Trevor Philips in an interview with the paper says

Barack Obama would never have been elected prime minister in this country because of “institutional racism” in the Labour Party.

and it continues

If Barack Obama had lived here I would be very surprised if even somebody as brilliant as him would have been able to break through the institutional stranglehold that there is on power within the Labour Party,” said the head of the Equality and Human Rights Commission. He said that there was an “institutional resistance” to selecting black and Asian candidates. “The parties and unions and think-tanks are all very happy to sign up to the general idea of advancing the cause of minorities but in practice they would like somebody else to do the business. It’s institutional racism.”

Expect much reactions today

A bit of a non event but it may buy him time

I managed to miss the first 15 minutes of Gordon's speech and ended up watching it on the big screen in Exchange square Manchester along with around 10 other disinterested people,a van load of police and numerous pigeons.

Two pensioners walking past managed a smile when he made the announcement about prescriptions but apart from that a rather lack lustre performance with a few sound bites for the later TV bulletins.

What is everybody else saying.

Well some initial thoughts from the Coffee House team,Peter Hoskin thinks its

very, very best parts were mediocre - and they were few and far between. Perhaps the biggest question hovering over it is: where's the beef? Although some of his policy announcements will be welcomed - particularly those on prescription charges - none were particularly groundbreaking, and most were either recycled or timed for the far-flung future.

and James Forsyth thinks

That was a lot less good than I expected. He used everything he could to try and establish an emotional contract, to borrow a Stephen Carter phrase, with voters but to my ears it fell flat. The chances of Brown being ousted by Christmas just increased significantly.

Iain Martin over at three line whip thought it

a pretty standard Brown text was preceded by an eye-catching introduction by Sarah Brown and a new personal approach from her husband in the opening minutes. He looked extremely nervous and uncomfortable on this unfamiliar territory but the hall liked the implied admission of vulnerability.

Adam Boulton describes it as

well-crafted, well-delivered and pleased his Labour audience

adding that

For now it will certainly buy him time as an unchallenged leader – at least unless the opinion polls fail to show any improvement in Labour’s standing.

Mike Smithson comments that

I found interesting the way he name-checked almost every single cabinet member - that’s a Brown innovation. He very rarely recognises that there is anybody else within his government.
Overall I felt there was a surprising lack of passion. I was expecting much more than that.

So overall then steady as she goes but let's wait and see what the public think

A damp squid except for the Heseltine moment

I don't know whether you agree but the Labour party conference is turning into a damp squid.Perhaps after the excitement of last week's financial markets,the global economy has made the party realise that after all,Gordon is the best person to be in charge.
His speech later today from being the make or break is now being trailed as the "I am in charge" and it seems that apart from apologising for the 10p tax debacle and announcing a new initiative on internet access for the less well off,there will be little to report.

Perhaps the most exciting bit of the conference was David Miliband's remarks in front of a BBC reporter in a lift last night which the later editions of the papers have picked up on this morning.Miliband was alleged to have said that he toned down his address(which universally was seen as a disappointment) so that he didn't create a "Heseltine moment"

Students of politics may wonder what a "Heseltine moment" is.Well after storming out of Mrs Thatcher's cabinet in 1986 over a disagreement about where our helicopters were made,Michael Hesletine was a thorn in the side of the Prime Minister for the next four years and ultimately the incident led to her downfall.

Whether Miliband intends to storm out of cabinet is unclear but most pundits seem to think that he was referring to the continued sniping through the media that accompanied Michael's retirement to the backbenches.

What a week to be away

Last year,the same week I was away and the Northern Rock crisis started.This time,the world's financial system teeters on the brink of collapse.By the end of the week,the United States government is effectively in control of the country's financial assets and Gordon Brown has created a new super bank.(At least we should now see the end of those awful Halifax adverts).

Now we have the Labour party conference starting,just a couple of miles down the road from where I am sitting typing this.

Will Gordon survive? It seems as though the past weeks events have given him a chance to shine,but I wish he would

a) acknowledge that he has made mistakes

b) stop harping back to the early 90's with high inflation,unemployment and interest rates.It past and it is largely irrelevant

c) assemble a decent team around him that care about the individual and are not just career politicians.

"I couldn't imagine his timing was accidental"

An interesting post from Martin Bright over at the New Statesman.

He is talking about the article with Charles Clarke that has caused so much controversy this week.

He says of the article

We had a long-standing request with Mr Clarke for a piece about Labour's travails and he chose this moment to accept our offer. I shouldn't imagine his timing was accidental

. and of its content

His analysis of the uses and abuses of "Blairism" is sound. His description of the mood of the party is pretty accurate. But I would like to know what he means when he says that he and and others will not "permit" the disaster to happen. It also confirms we in my belief that Clarke and others who were sceptical about a Brown premiership should have put up a candidate last year.

Tribal warfare and dysfunctionalism in Whitehall

Do try and read Sue Cameron in this mornings FT

Is the government imploding or does it just look that way? Downing Street advisers have their heads in their hands, I'm told. Tribal warfare has broken out in Whitehall with the Treasury and Number 10 indulging in more or less open war. Insiders say Prime Minister Gordon Brown has a multi-billion pound shopping list of plans, including state-backed mortgages, which he is saving up to announce in his speech to the Labour conference later this month.

Again,if true it looks as though Alistair Darling has been bypassed yet again.But the worrying thing is the message that seems to be coming out.As Sue puts it,

What worries Whitehall is that nobody seems certain what to do about the problems crowding in on the government. "If you think this lot have a Baldrick-style cunning plan you are flattering them," says Professor Peter Hennessy of London University. "A lot of the people in Number 10 - notably the spads or special advisers - aren't house-trained. They don't know what everyone is meant to be doing."

Raynsford-There is still a way back for Labour

There will no doubt be a lot of comment over the article that appeared yesterday in the New Statesman.

Ex Labour minister Nick Raynsford writes that the government's position is similar to that of the Tories under John Major after Mrs Thatcher had resigned and points out that they won the election two years later.

There is for him a way out of the hole as it puts it

The historical parallel is closer to 1990 than 1995. While the Thatcher Government was deeply unpopular in 1990, losing the Eastbourne by-election on a similar swing to Glasgow East, the electorate had not yet committed to Labour as the next government. Hence John Major’s surprise victory in 1992. By 1995 the position had changed. The electorate had decisively shifted their loyalty to Tony Blair’s government-in-waiting and nothing could save John Major.

and he adds that

David Cameron has still not secured the unequivocal support of the electorate

The solution according to Raynsford is to stop the relentless search for new initiatives and concentrate on the record instead

Compared with the position we inherited in 1997, today’s Britain is a better, fairer, more successful, more confident and more tolerant society

.

Another reminder that we have two years to an election.The article speaks a lot of truth

Wot no Spring Conference

Can anything be read into Labour's cancellation of its Spring conference next year?

A sure sign that Labour is not planning an election at the four year mark next spring

says Adam Boulton.

He also notes that

The absence of a conference also removes one formal opportunity for a challenge to Gordon Brown

Surely though the answer is more simple.The party has no money.

Here is the official line

Instead of gathering in one place for a traditional conference with set piece speeches and formal meetings that only a limited number of people can attend, the Party will be seeking to make best use of its resources by engaging with as many members as possible through a combination of both events in your local area and online activities on labour.org.uk and Membersnet.

Alternate Whips and thoughts of retirement

Hats off to the Mail's Ben Brogan who has discovered that

Gordon Brown's chums have set up a parallel Whips' operation that answers to the Prime Minister rather than Mr Hoon. It is being organised by Nick Brown, the Deputy Chief Whip, and includes both Whips and non-Whips who have in common their unquestioning loyalty to the PM. Key figures in this operation include the former whip and minister George Mudie, Mr Brown's PPS Ian Austin, as well as Kevan Jones and Helen Jones, both members of the six-strong parliamentary committee who act as shop stewards for the PLP. Others in this group include Mark Tami and Wayne David, Whips who were among the coup plotters who helped do in Tony Blair and were rewarded with Government jobs, and Tom Watson, seen by many MPs as the 2006 coup's enforcer who is now the blogging minister in the Cabinet Office.

Not only that but according to John Kampfner writing in the Telegraph says that for Labour MP's talking about Glasgow East

the word "meltdown" is on their lips. Evidence suggests they are running ahead of themselves, consumed in a gloom that is only partially rational, but the fear gives weight to the reality.
On the ground, many local Labour parties are effectively moribund. Much of the work is now done centrally, by email shots, social networking sites and telephone canvassing, but the financial state of the party nationally is so parlous that even much of this work is in jeopardy.

and

Several senior figures I have spoken to in recent weeks say they are considering standing down before the next election. This is a natural process, but such a retirement process accelerates as the prospect of opposition beckons.

Funding problems for Labour

This morning's Guardian brings bad news for the Labour but this time it is not opinion polls,by elections or back bench rebellions.

According to the paper

Senior officials in the Labour party, including Gordon Brown, could become personally liable for millions of pounds in debt unless new donors can be found within weeks, the Guardian has learned.
The party has five weeks to find £7.45m to pay off loans to banks and wealthy donors recruited by Lord Levy, Tony Blair's former chief fundraiser, or become insolvent. A further £6.2m will have to be repaid by Christmas - making £13.65m in all. The sum amounts to two-thirds of the party's annual income from donations.

The Telegraph adds

It is understood that it was concern that he might be bankrupted by this personal liability that led City financier David Pitt-Watson to turn down the post of party general secretary earlier this year.

Guido reminds us

The Co-operative Bank is calling in £2.61m in loans, Unity Trust Bank owned by the Co-op and the unions has a further £1.54 m due at the same time. In total £7.45m is due next month. Money that Labour simply does not have. Guido is willing to risk buying Labour Party debt at 10p in the £1...