Tamsin won't be returning to Crewe

It appears that Tamsin Dunwoody has decided that once is enough for Crewe and Nantwich.The Labour candidate beaten by Tory candidate Edward Timpson will not be standing in the constituency when the general election is called.

Speaking to Jonathan Isaby over at Three Line Whip she says

I'd love to have done it, but the simple truth is that I can't physically afford to move up there from west Wales with my five children and give the seat my full-time commitment,
"I've not been able to find a job since losing my seat in the Welsh Assembly just over a year ago and I don't have a pot of gold, so I can't just go off and do what I want. It's the hardest decision I've ever had to make in my political life - harder than deciding to stand at the by-election. If I'd been in a different situation, I'd have loved to have stood again and hopefully won it back - as I do believe it will come back."

Waiting for the men in the dark suits.

Let's hope that Gordon Brown is well away from the papers this morning.

With the Independent and the Mail concluding this is the end for New Labour,there is intense speculation about a leadership bid.

The front page of the Times says

Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, was being earmarked by senior backbenchers as the figure to tell Mr Brown that they had lost confidence in him and that he should step aside unless there was a swift improvement in Labour’s fortunes

adding

Cabinet sources said that a majority of ministers now doubted whether Labour could turn around its current deficit with Mr Brown in charge. Senior ministers were among those who told The Times privately that the party could not do nothing if it seemed to be heading towards certain defeat.

Meanwhile the Guardian says

Gordon Brown is losing the confidence of his cabinet as an increasing number of ministers voice the fear that Labour cannot win the general election under the prime minister's leadership, authoritative sources told the Guardian yesterday.......Gordon Brown is losing the confidence of his cabinet as an increasing number of ministers voice the fear that Labour cannot win the general election under the prime minister's leadership, authoritative sources told the Guardian yesterday.

The Independent holds out some hope for the party

The pivotal question for the Government is whether there is any way back. Can it rebuild an election-winning coalition of support? For Labour MPs in marginal seats the question is more tantalising because there is still two years before a general election must be called. There is time. When there is time there is hope.

and the Sun's leader says

GORDON Brown is under no illusions today.
He knows the scale of the mountain he must climb to save Labour’s fortunes.
The hard-working people of Crewe and Nantwich left him in no doubt.
The rising cost of living and the influx of immigrants have left them dismayed.
But they not only turned their backs on Labour.
They actually ticked the Tory box for the first time in a generation.

Some comments on Crewe and Nantwich from the blogosphere

As you can imagine,the Blogosphere is alive with comments following Crewe and Nantwich.

Here is a short round up so far.Labour Home says

As predicted we have taken a severe kicking in Crewe, not just because of the 'toff' campaign attacks, not just because of the 10p tax fiasco and certainly not because the Tories and Cameron connect with voters but because the electorate was determined to give us a bloody nose. From the doorstep it was obvious that people were and are angry with us, disillusioned with our increasingly reactionary rhetoric and keen to send us and particularly Gordon Brown, a message.

adding that

If Labour is to secure an unprecedented fourth term then it must urgently set about renewing itself, its message and its organisation

Iain Martin says

If Labour were in any doubt that the Conservatives now have a ruthless and efficient campaign machine in the making then they should probably grasp it this morning. Where Labour used to be brilliantly organised, it is now the Tory back-room team from CCHQ which is maturing into a killer political force.

Red Box says that

Yet again, even the expectation-lowering worst case scenario being talked about by Brown Central wasn't as bad as the real result

.adding

There is one interesting suggestion of what Brown could do to improve morale today. He could publicly appear with Tamsin Dunwoody and commiserate the poor result. Turning weakness into strength, this could show he was leading from the front, taking the bad result on the chin. And empathising with the Labour Party, who will be looking for crumbs of comfort this morning.

Be in no doubt

. says Nick Robinson .

If David Cameron becomes prime minister many will look back at the vote in Crewe and Nantwich as the moment they first believed it was possible.

Finally Michael Smithson calls the next election for the Tories

It's the economy stupid

So,according to Harriet Harman,speaking on the Today programme the by election result was not the fault of the Labour party,its leader,the 10p tax,immigration issues.Neither is it the public sending the message to a mid term government.

No it is simply the fault of the world economic problems.

Really?

The result of last night,even in the realms of By election shock results,far exceeded anything that has been seen for some time.A 17% swing,a majority of 7,078 turned into one of 7,860 the other way and the Tories getting nearly 50% of the vote in what was a safe Labour seat.

The figures are being trotted out.The first Tory gain in a by election since 1982,the first gain from Labour since 1978,a safe Labour seat that remained Labour even in the darkest days of Michael Foot.A result that if replicated in a general election would leave the party with 100 MP's.

So where does the party go from here.One thing being predicted is not to panic.Wait for the new policies to gain credence from the electorate,wait for the economy to turn.

On the other side,time to panic!Ditch Brown now in order to prevent an inevitable defeat in two years time and the prospect of a Cameron government.

Rumours of a putsch

Is there any truth in the rumour that Alan Milburn will attempt a Putsch after the expected Labour defeat in Crewe.

According to Mike Smithson who has his ear to the ground

Word reaches me that the former Health Secretary and fervent Blairite, Alan Milburn, is planning to mount a leadership bid to topple Gordon Brown in the aftermath of Labour’s likely heavy defeat in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election.
I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this but it comes from somebody I trust who has very close links within the party. Clearly something is going on out there and this weekend would be the ideal time to strike.
Milburn, of course, has never been a friend of Gordon Brown and there were rumours during 2006 and 2007 that he was going run against Gordon to force a proper leadership election.

Tories not the only ones with Toffs

It has already been clear that the toff campaign by the Labour party in Crewe and Nantwich has backfired.

Now it seems that the Labour candidate has an entry in Burke's peerage.

DUNWOODY

(MOYRA) TAMSIN DUNWOODY [Mrs Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsey, Constituency Office, Sycamore Lodge, Hamilton St, Fishguard, Pembs SA65 9HL, Wales; National Assembly for Wales, Cardiff Bay, Cardiff CF99 1NA, Wales]; born Totnes, Devon 3 Sept 1958; educated Grey Coat Hosp Westminster,

Hat Tip Chris Whiteside

Latest polls confirm Labour meltdown

Even more bad opinion poll news this morning.

The Guardian carries the lastest ICM poll which nationally shows the Conservatives with an 14 point lead over Labour.Its latest figures put the Tories up 2 at 41 and Labour down 7 at 27 from its last poll

Public confidence in Labour's ability to govern has dropped heavily on a series of key measures. Voters are also turning their back on Gordon Brown personally: 75% of people who voted Labour in 2005 now think that Tony Blair was a better prime minister. Overall, voters also place Brown as a leader behind Thatcher and even John Major.

says the paper

Meanwhile the Independent carries the latest from Crewe and Nantwich which

puts the Conservative Party on 48 per cent, Labour on 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent and other parties on 5 per cent. The projected 14 per cent swing to the Tories would easily allow David Cameron's party to overturn the 7,780 majority Labour enjoyed at the last general election.

Latest polls more bad news for Labour

The latest opinion polls this morning show the Tory lead growing as we approach the Crewe and Nantwich by election.

The latest You Gov poll in this mornings Sunday Times puts the Tories on 45%,Labour on 25% and the Lib Dems on 18%

This would give the Tories a majority of 150 if repaeted in a general election.

Meanwhile the News of the World carries an ICM poll in the Crewe and Nantwich by election which puts the Tories on 45% and Labour on 37%

The paper says

That's double the gap of a week ago—and if carried through to the ballot box on Thursday, it would give the Tories their first by-election GAIN in 26 years.
It's a devastasting blow for Brown and—says Nick Sparrow, managing director of pollsters ICM—leaves him "staring defeat in the face at the next general election".

adding

The poll also reveals almost half of voters think Brown's £2.7billion giveaway this week to compensate for scrapping the 10p tax rate was the RIGHT thing to do—but 59 per cent say it's still a BRIBE.
And an astonishing one in four say it has made them even LESS likely to vote Labour on Thursday

No show at Crewe,incapable of running the economy and unable to face being wrong

Guido is not happy with Gordon Brown's non appearance in the Crewe and Nantwich hustings.

Whenever New Labour were in trouble Tony Blair would lead from the front, whatever you may say about him, he never feared to open the batting however sticky the wicket

.

However

Gordon avoids elections wherever possible, he chickened out of a contest with Blair for the leadership in 1994, he engineered a coronation unopposed for the party leadership in July 2007 and he bottled holding a mandate producing election in October 2007

....and for Guido

Gordon is a truly pathetic figure, on Friday morning Labour will have to face up to their mistake.

He isn't the only one who is unhappy with Gordon.In the Telegraph Simon Heffer says of the 10p tax u turn

The £2.7 billion loan, at a time when we are grotesquely over-borrowed, is the final sign not merely that this man has no idea about sound economics, but that he is unfit to see the country through hard times

adding that

Mr Brown is as fit to preside over economic recovery as Harold Shipman would be to chair a conference on medical ethics

In the Times Matthew Paris questions the PM's decision making process

If you can admit you’re wrong, then you don’t need to admit to being pushed by others, but only by your own intelligence, to alter course. If you can admit to being pushed by others you don’t need to admit you were ever wrong: you’ve altered course for collegiate reasons, against your best judgment. But if you are to insist both that your first decision was right, and that your second thoughts do not arise from arm-twisting, you get into an awful tangle when challenged to explain your change of mind.

Is the tide turning in Crewe

Perhaps it is all not so clear cut in the Crewe and Nantwich by election?

Mike Smithson suggests

There were suggestions yesterday that Labour “private polling” was showing that the by election may not be the foregone conclusion that it appears.....If this is more than just spin to boost the morale of the troops then that would surely trickle out and the betting would move. The chart showing the implied probability of a Labour victory based on the odds points to a Labour boost overnight Wednesday/Thursday but since then it has moved back down again. The timing is in line with the “private poll” rumour.

Labour tactics under fire in Crewe

John Harris writing in this morning's Guardian takes a look at the by election in Crewe and Nantwich and concludes that Labour's tactics are "exposing a truly nasty party."

In what is being seen as a two horse race,the daughter of the former MP Gyweneth Dunwoddy,Tamsin takes on Edward Timpson air to a chain of famous shoe shops.

The Labour party are branding him a toff and are following him around with people dressed up in upper class regalia.

He describes the latest leaflet being pushed thru people's doors

titled "Tory candidate application form", replete with questions and ticked boxes. Number one is, "Do you live in a big mansion house?" Question two is - and, really, the sense of humour on display is quite something - "Do you think that regeneration is adding a new wing to your mansion?" The third reads: "Have you and your Tory mates on the council been soft on yobs and failed to make our streets safer?" But the best is saved for question four, at which point pantomimic class hatred is suspended and we get something altogether more sinister. "Do you," it asks, "oppose making foreign nationals carry an ID card?"

and adds

the essential Labour strategy is clear enough: not to concentrate on anything progressive or inspiring but to run instead on a mixture of the Dunwoody bloodline, utterly witless class warfare, and the politics of fear.

Over at Open House meanwhile Michael Savage reminds Labour of the past occassions when these tactics were used

In 1924, Labour ran a no-holds-barred class campaign - "You are either with us or against us" read one of their pamphlets. As it turned out, most of the public were against them. They slumped to a heavy defeat. Five years later, they were appealing to a broader constituency under the banner "a fairer deal for all". Sound familiar? They won the election with a breakthrough result, becoming the largest party in parliament for the first time.

Image from

http://www.crewe.tv/

Via Miranda Richardson

Here is a good example of a blog being used as a forum for political debate on a local issue.The Excellent Crewe blog managedto secure an interview with David Cameron on whta the author says was his 3rd visit to the constituency ahead of next weeks by election

Read the whole piece here

So much for local politics

Jonathan Isaby points out that with nominations closed and 10 candidates declared,only one of them actually lives in the consituency and that is the Independent candidate

So much for local politics

Another Sunday,another set of bad headlines for Brown

It is almost becoming boring now when you open the Sunday papers and see the lastest bad news for the government.

The Mail on Sunday kicks off with a poll at Crewe and Nantwich which suggests

The Tories are poised to achieve their first parliamentary by-election gain since the heyday of Margaret Thatcher, dealing a hammer blow to Gordon Brown's hopes of survival.
That is the remarkable finding of the first opinion poll conducted in the Labour stronghold of Crewe, where a by-election to be held in 11 days' time could seal the Prime Minister's fate.
The ICM survey for The Mail on Sunday puts the Tories on 43 per cent with Labour trailing on 39 – a dramatic ten per cent swing in the Cheshire constituency since the last General Election.

The Observer follows with its unique survey which says

Gordon Brown has suffered a devastating collapse in his public standing, according to a new survey published in The Observer today which will put his leadership under intensified pressure.
As the Prime Minister begins his fightback with new proposals entitling mothers to more flexible working hours, the research shows that only one in five voters thinks he is doing a good job. He is rated worse than David Cameron on every key leadership quality, including competence, decisiveness, fairness, likeability, trustworthiness and strength.

And more revelations in the Times this time from John Prescott's forthcoming autobiography which says

he urged Tony Blair to sack Gordon Brown at the height of their frequent rows – but the former prime minister was “scared” of his chancellor.
He says he also urged Brown to resign and fight Blair from the back benches, but Brown, then chancellor, shrank from such a bold gamble.

As well as a report from Stephen Byers who

accuses the prime minister of being “distant and uncaring” and manipulating the tax system for “tactical advantage”.

and says

The electoral clock is ticking for Gordon Brown. The next few months will be make-or-break time.” Byers criticises Brown for abolishing the 10p income tax band which has hit 5.3m low-paid workers and urges him to carry out a “fundamental rethink” of taxation policy, leaving “no area off limits

In and out without meeting a voter

Jonathan Isaby is covering Nick Clegg's whistle top visit to Crewe over at Three Line Whip and points out that he managed to do it without meeting any voters.

He did though

met his candidate, Elizabeth Shenton at the station for the photocall with the local press and headed for the car waiting for him (on a double yellow line).
On the point of getting into the car, his press officer dragged him back since the Sky News cameraman had failed to get there in time to get any footage

Before going for an interview at the Crewe Chronicle

Don't stay in the Sun too long-you may burn

A warning for David Cameron just in case he is getting too smug in this morning's Telegraph from Iain Martin

Basking in the sunshine after the local elections, the Tories ask if it is becoming cool to be a Tory. The answer is: of course it is not, such beliefs merely carry slightly less social stigma than they did six months ago.

And as Crewe and Nanwich approaches on the radar

Prepare for a wonderful by-election in the great British Hogarthian tradition, by turns noisy, messy and centred on opponents caricaturing each other with attacks of a highly personal nature. This is one of our best national sports. As ever, the entire affair will be rich with cant.