How maths could help Labour win the next election

Kevin Mcguire has the heads up on an interesting piece of polling information in the Mirror this morning.

Peter Kellner,polling guru thinks that the next general election may not be as clear cut as we all think.

Chiefly that

Political geography favours Gordon Brown. If the parties got the same national vote, Labour still wins 80 more seats. Cameron needs two million more votes for the same number of seats. To draw level Cameron needs a six per cent lead, a hefty 10 per cent for an overall majority.

But also that

Labour woes are fundamentally different from those of John Major. Black Wednesday was a Tory error and signed Major's death warrant but voters accept global food, fuel and credit problems aren't Brown's fault but want more help

The review by the Fabian society is not published until next week but it may send Labour MP's to Manchester a little more heartened than in previous months