Let's wait for the bounce to wear off

Today's poll in the Sun seems to suggest that the Brown bounce is underway.Taken after the Tuesday speech but before the ramifications of the Ruth Kelly affair,it has the Tories on 41%,Labour on 31% and the Lib Dems on 16%.

Is it significant? Well the last figures had the Tories 20 points ahead so did the speech change the voters perception or are they simply confidence that Brown is the man to steer us through the economic turmoil?

Interesting the poll still suggested that 6/10 people thought that the Pm didn't understand what people were going through.

That expert on polls Mike Smithson points out that

polls bang in the middle of conference season are usually totally misleading and merely reflect that whoever was on most recently was getting an extra publicity boost. This is largely because of the broadcasting rules that mean that the national TV and radio stations suspend their normal news judgements for three weeks. Extra time is devoted to to the party conferences which affects the opinion polls.

suggesting that the most telling ones will be towards the end of Oct when the conferences have been forgotten and the Brown/Cameron/Clegg bounce has dissipated.