Israel will rejoice over Shalit's return

I have been watching the events over in the Middle East this morning and it's hard not to put too much emphasis on the release of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli conscript held captive in Gaza for the last five years.

In the last couple of hours Hamas have released him to the Egyptian government,the first and crucial step of a prisoner swap that includes 1,027 prisoners in Israeli jails.

The saga of Shalit began in 2006 when the young conscript was kidnapped near Gaza triggered an outpouring of support in Israel.

Since then rumours have abounded about the conscript's fate and Shalit has become a cause of celebrity back in his homeland.

Israel has always wanted the conscript in return and the fact that amongst the prisoner exchange are some of the men who have committed the most atrocious acts of terrorism towards Israel will not have been an easy pill for Israel to swallow.

Amngst them are Abdullah Barghouti who was sentenced to 67 consecutive life terms in jail for making bombs that killed killed 66 people and wounded more than 500 and Ahlam Tamimi, who drove a suicide bomber to blow up the Sbarro pizza restaurant in Jerusalem in 2001.

In fact of the 1027 being released,more than 280 of whom are serving life sentences.

Nevertheless Israel will be rejoicing today on the return of her prodical son who whilst in captivity have been promoted twice by his county's army.

Truth in Dubai-Fisk lifts the lid

The Independent's Robert Fisk rises above all the conspiracy headlines in this morning's papers over the Dubai affair.

Besides pointing out that Far too many police forces are now sending their minions to Israel to learn about "terror" he also says that

According to a Dubai "source" of The Independent – readers will have to judge what this means – the security forces of the aforesaid emirate informed a "British diplomat" in Dubai (presumably the consul, since the embassy is in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi) of the UK passport details almost six days ago and "did not receive an appropriate reply". If this is true – the Foreign Office will be wrathful in its denials – then why didn't the British immediately express their outrage at the use of forged British passports and cough up details of the equally outrageous frauds a week ago? This misuse puts every British citizen at risk.

Netanyahu's challenge for Obama

The Israeli Prime Minister,Benjamin Netanyahu lays down a challenge for Barcak Obama in an interview with Atlantic magazine.

“The Obama presidency has two great missions: fixing the economy, and preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons,”

On the second issue,he tells Jeffrey Goldberg that he Iranian nuclear challenge represents a “hinge of history” and added that “Western civilization” will have failed if Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

Interesting words and on the eve of taking office Netanyahu has clearly drawn a line in the sand over what he feels are the priorities for Israel

Netanyahu is between a rock and a hard place

As Israel's polititians continue to negotiate a new government it is woth reading Haaretz for a quick analysis of what the parties have to confront.

For Netanyahu if he resolves to form a governemnt with the right wing parties

such a coalition would come with a threefold cost: It would face heavy international pressure to resume the peace process and stop settlement construction, it would bloat the budget with financing for the ultra-Orthodox parties' demands, and it would suffer from internal tensions between Lieberman and Shas.

whereas if he brings Kadima and even Labor into the government,then whilst he would be deprived of ideological zeal it would

reduce the extortionary power of Lieberman and the religious parties, and free himself of reliance on the extremists of the National Union. Such a government would reduce international pressure on Israel a little.

Too close to call in Israel

With exit polls giving the centrist party Kadima a one seat lead of centre right Likud,both parties are claiming victory in the Israeli election.

It is a victory of sorts for Tzipi Livni's Kadima who have been trailing in the run up to polling day

However the strong showing of other right wing parties means that Livni will find it difficult to form a government.

The complicated proportional representation system means that it could be more than a month before we know the full shape of the countries next government.

As it stands the result may well be seen as a setback for Barack Obama's ambitions for new peace initiatives as the shift to a right wing leaning will undoubtedly give Binyamin Netanyahu, the Likud leader,a role in future negotiations

Three scenarios for the end of the war in Gaza

Time magazine's Tony Karon gives three scenarios in whch the war in the Gaza strip will come to an end.

1.Regime Change -ie use its momentum to take control of Gaza City and decapitate Hamas.

2.Long-term Cease-fire-

An actual disarming of Hamas' current militias is unlikely without a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza, which would involve tens of thousands more Israeli troops over many months. Anything less will see Hamas continue to be the dominant security presence inside Gaza. So, Israel's priority will be to choke off the supply of rockets and mortar shells, which have been smuggled through tunnels from Gaza and fired at Israel

3.The Guns Go Silent Without a Formal Truce-

If the offensive cannot deal Hamas a death blow, Israel may see benefit in holding its fire, in line with the first phase of the Egyptian plan but not necessarily concluding a comprehensive cease-fire. It would simply maintain the halt to hostilities and even withdraw its forces on an open-ended basis.

World Vision will not be getting another penny from Tim Montgomerie

Tim Montgomerie is not very happy with the charity World Vision after reading this in the Herald today

"Plans for closer ties between the European Union and Israel must be halted until there is a "comprehensive" ceasefire in the Gaza offensive, aid agencies demanded today... The coalition of agencies, including Oxfam, World Vision, Muslim Aid and Christian Aid, say Brussels should use ongoing talks on closer EU-Israel relations as a lever. An EU-Israel Association Agreement is being stepped up to "gradually integrate Israel into European policies and programmes", said the Commission. Under the deal, Israel is eligible for almost £13 million in EU "financial cooperation" in the next seven years... Daleep Mukarji, director of Christian Aid UK and Ireland, said: "Israel has shunned diplomatic efforts by the EU, and the EU's credibility is now at stake. It is inconceivable that we should extend further benefits of European partnership to a government that violates international humanitarian law and refuses negotiation in favour of continued violence. It is time for robust EU action to bring about an immediate ceasefire and end the violence on all sides."

Well everyone is entitled to their opinion but charities should be allowed a view and should speak up when they feel that things are wrong.

Anyway Tim will no longer be giving a penny to World Vision

Who broke the ceasefire in Gaza?

It worth reading Robin Lustig's post on the events in the Gaza strip.

He reminds us that

On 4 November, when much of the world was watching Barack Obama win the US presidential election, Israeli forces crossed into the Gaza Strip and killed six Hamas fighters. Israel says Hamas was building a tunnel under the border fence at Deir al-Balah which it intended to use to kidnap Israeli soldiers. Hamas responded by launching rockets and mortar shells into Israel.

190 to be exact

Whereas during the ceasefire these were the figures on launches

19-30 June: 9
July: 20
August: 17
September: 2
October: 2

Newspaper comment on the groundforces in Gaza

There is much debate in the papers this morning over the weekend's events in the Gaza strip

The Times leader uses the crisis to point fingers at the lack of leadership from the EU coming at a time when the Presidential changeover only now swings into effect.

Here was an opportunity for the EU to take a diplomatic lead. The interregnum in the US, where the serving President is seeing out his time but his successor is still 15 days from inauguration, created a diplomatic vacuum. Hostilities in Gaza demanded a mature and united diplomatic response. But behind the perfunctory call for a ceasefire issued on Saturday, what it saw instead was an unseemly squabble.

The Indy echoes the call

With neither Israel nor Hamas in any mood to countenance a ceasefire, however, it is also worth noting that appeals from the outside would carry more conviction if they also came with some positive and practical suggestions for what might happen next. So far, in public at least, constructive proposals have been conspicuous by their absence. Indeed, circumstances have almost conspired to leave the field for such initiatives vacant.

The Guardian beleives that Israel's eventual victory will be hollow

even if the Israeli army succeeds in its aims and destroys Hamas both as an army and as an organisation, it will have also destroyed the last remnants of government in the strip. Israel would have fought its way back to where it was in 1994, before the advent of the Palestinian authority, and back in direct control of Gaza. That is plainly not what it wants, because it would mean re-assuming control of 1.5 million Gazans as well. Putting a proxy Palestinian government in place would be just as fraught. Destroying the infrastructure of Hamas's rule in Gaza would also wreck the effective government on which any future ceasefire would depend. To take one small but relevant example, half of Gaza's ambulances have already been destroyed.

The Telegraph recognises that

A determined enemy lies concealed in Gaza's tangled warren of alleys and, for the first time, the struggle will now be on relatively equal terms, creating a significant danger of heavy losses among Israeli forces. This makes it all the more imperative for the government to set out clear goals, achieve them with minimum loss of life on both sides and then leave Gaza as swiftly as possible.

However

Sadly, Mr Olmert has allowed a degree of confusion about his country's war aims to emerge. Fighting talk from his defence minister, Ehud Barak, of a "war to the bitter end" has given the impression that Israel seeks to destroy Hamas or, at the very least, overthrow its administration in Gaza. In reality, Israel's war aims are almost certainly confined to halting the rocket attacks which have sown such misery in its southern cities. Mr Olmert should make clear that this defensive measure is the only objective.

The Mail has

grave doubts, too, over the likely consequences of the invasion for the Israeli people themselves.

and asks

Isn’t there a strong risk that, far from making them safer, it will subject them to even greater danger in the long term, by heightening tensions in the region?

Some blogging perspective on the Gazan attacks

It is difficult to find any sympathy for Israel after the events of the last few days.

No matter what the provocation,the seemingly endless bombing of civilian targets in this day and age is fairly inexusable.

Israel will point to the breakdown in the ceasefire and the luanching of rockets on its own civilians by Hamas.

The best perspective on the violence is to look at the Global voices website which as on many past occassions gives a bloggers insight into both sides of the tale.

This from an Israeli blogger

My feelings about what happened in Gaza yesterday: I feel very sad that it had
to be that way. But it had to be that way. We can't let rockets rain down on our
citizens and do nothing. I look forward to the day -- may I live to see it --
when the Palestinian leadership figures out what "compromise" and "good
leadership" and "promises" and "tolerance" actually mean. I'd really like for
our army to have nothing to do. That would be fantastic

And this from a Gazan currently in the USA but talking about the experience of the in laws

I was out in the souk when the strikes began- I saw the missiles falling and
prayed; the earth shook; the smoke rose; the ambulances screamed" he said, the
sirens audible in the background. he was on talateeni street at the time of the
attacks, just a few streets down from one of the attack sites.My mother was in
the Red Crescent Society clinic near the universities at the time of the initial
wave of attacks, where she works part-time as a pediatrician. Behind the clinic
was one of the police centers that was leveled. She said she broke down at
first, the sheer proximity of the attacks having shaken her from the inside out.
After she got a hold of herself, they took to treating injured victims of the
attack, before they transferred them to Shifa hospital

Stranded in Gaza even though your name is (Blair)Booth

It doesn't matter what your name is or who are related to when it comes to dealing with the Israeli border police.

Lauren Booth,sister of Cherie has been taking part in trying to alert the world to humanitarian issues in Gaza and was part of two boats that sailed there carrying supplies.

Eventually the Israeli authorities let them land but Booth decided to return by land,accompanying a middle-aged Palestinian woman who had a medical referral for surgery in Jerusalem to remove a tumor on her spine.

Tim McGirk reports what happened when they tried to cross the border

when the party arrived at the no-mans’ land of Erez, a message was relayed from the Israelis. “We were told to stop or they’d open fire on us,” says Booth, adding caustically, “This is Israel’s approach to medical treatment.”then

after assurances from the British consul that she and the others would be let out through Egypt, they headed south to Rafah crossing –-only to be kept waiting for three hours in the sweltering heat by the Egyptians, and then denied entry.

Still in Gaza she is waiting for permission to cross.Perhaps her brother in law could have a word

Is an attack on Iran inevitable?

There has been a fair amount of speculation in the media over the United States' intentions on Iran,amid rumours of rehersal attacks by Israel and American policy in the Middle East.

It is worth reading Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker who firmly believes that the Bush administration is gearing up for an attack.

Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership. The covert activities involve support of the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations. They also include gathering intelligence about Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapons program.

Whether this intelligence is a prelude to a military strike is unclear and as Hersh points out

there is disagreement about whether a military strike is the right solution. Some Pentagon officials believe, as they have let Congress and the media know, that bombing Iran is not a viable response to the nuclear-proliferation issue, and that more diplomacy is necessary.

This weeks Economist also looks at the issue vis a vie Israel and concludes that

Such an attack would be a mistake. Even if it did not turn the region into a “fireball”, as Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear watchdog, has predicted, it would certainly provoke retaliation. Given Iran’s size and sophistication, it would at best delay rather than end whatever plans the Iranians have to become a nuclear military power. Even if Iran did get the bomb, it would probably not use it for fear of Israel’s bigger, existing stockpile. And in the (admittedly improbable) event that Iran is telling the truth when it denies having any such ambition, nothing would change its mind faster than an Israeli strike.

However as it points out for Israel,the logical conclusion is not always the one followed

Given their history, a lot of Israelis will run almost any risk to prevent a state that calls repeatedly for their own state’s destruction from acquiring the wherewithal to bring that end about

Robin Lustig also takes a look at the logistics and concludes that

Israel bombs Iran. Iran retaliates. Its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza (Hizbollah and Hamas respectively) launch multiple rocket attacks into Israel.
But they do more. They order their allies in Iraq into action against US forces there. As a well-informed American friend said the other day: "Israel attacks Iran with US approval and Americans die? I don't think so."

and furthermore with Israel's Prime Minister in rather a precarious situation domestically at the moment would this be a viable option for the country

It's not as bad as being the Israeli President

Do read Martin Bright in this week's new statesman.

Having returned from a visit to Israel where the current Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert,is struggling with financial accusations and his performance in the Lebanese war,Bright wanders how Gordon Brown can be so badly off course

Not so much as a whiff of financial impropriety has ever surrounded the present Prime Minister, even when the stench of scandal has been swirling around him

Brown stands accused of

hesitating over calling an election after the 2007 party conference season, stealing the Conservatives' ideas on inheritance tax shortly afterwards, not reacting decisively enough to the Northern Rock crisis and failing to clock the full effects of the abolition of the 10 per cent income tax on certain lower-earning workers. Add to this Brown's suicidal stubbornness over extending the detention without charge of terrorist suspects to 42 days and it makes for quite a list.

But hardly on the scale of Olmert or for that matter Blair.

And he reminds us of a historical precedent in which

In August 1969, Wilson's personal rating fell to 26 per cent, about as bad as it got before the days of internet polling. But, somehow, he recovered. Like now, the public mood was extremely volatile. It is generally thought that both careful handling of the Northern Ireland situation and the gradual recovery of the economy following the 1967 devaluation contributed to a rise in Wilson's popularity. By October 1969 his personal rating hit 43 per cent, ahead of his rival Edward Heath.