Friday, 16 January 2009

Three scenarios for the end of the war in Gaza

Time magazine's Tony Karon gives three scenarios in whch the war in the Gaza strip will come to an end.

1.Regime Change -ie use its momentum to take control of Gaza City and decapitate Hamas.

2.Long-term Cease-fire-
An actual disarming of Hamas' current militias is unlikely without a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza, which would involve tens of thousands more Israeli troops over many months. Anything less will see Hamas continue to be the dominant security presence inside Gaza. So, Israel's priority will be to choke off the supply of rockets and mortar shells, which have been smuggled through tunnels from Gaza and fired at Israel


3.The Guns Go Silent Without a Formal Truce-
If the offensive cannot deal Hamas a death blow, Israel may see benefit in holding its fire, in line with the first phase of the Egyptian plan but not necessarily concluding a comprehensive cease-fire. It would simply maintain the halt to hostilities and even withdraw its forces on an open-ended basis.

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