Israel will rejoice over Shalit's return

I have been watching the events over in the Middle East this morning and it's hard not to put too much emphasis on the release of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli conscript held captive in Gaza for the last five years.

In the last couple of hours Hamas have released him to the Egyptian government,the first and crucial step of a prisoner swap that includes 1,027 prisoners in Israeli jails.

The saga of Shalit began in 2006 when the young conscript was kidnapped near Gaza triggered an outpouring of support in Israel.

Since then rumours have abounded about the conscript's fate and Shalit has become a cause of celebrity back in his homeland.

Israel has always wanted the conscript in return and the fact that amongst the prisoner exchange are some of the men who have committed the most atrocious acts of terrorism towards Israel will not have been an easy pill for Israel to swallow.

Amngst them are Abdullah Barghouti who was sentenced to 67 consecutive life terms in jail for making bombs that killed killed 66 people and wounded more than 500 and Ahlam Tamimi, who drove a suicide bomber to blow up the Sbarro pizza restaurant in Jerusalem in 2001.

In fact of the 1027 being released,more than 280 of whom are serving life sentences.

Nevertheless Israel will be rejoicing today on the return of her prodical son who whilst in captivity have been promoted twice by his county's army.

Is it now time to talk to Hamas

I blogged a few days ago about it being perhaps time for the United States to talk to the Taliban to create an impetus for change in Afghanistan.

Another pariah would be to talk to Hamas and begin a process of reconciliation in the Palestinian territories.

Roger Cohen believes that this may eb the way forward writing in the New York Times who says that

The Obama administration should also look carefully at how to reach moderate Hamas elements and engineer a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation.

Of course the critics will point to its charter and its non reconciliation of Israel but as Roger points out

it’s wrong to get hung up on the prior recognition of Israel issue. Perhaps Hamas is sincere in its calls for Israel’s disappearance — although it has offered a decades-long truce — but then it’s also possible that Israel in reality has no desire to see a Palestinian state.

It is also important to recognise that Hamas won a free and fair election in the territory.The fact that it was unwanted by the Americans does not make it any less legitimate

Three scenarios for the end of the war in Gaza

Time magazine's Tony Karon gives three scenarios in whch the war in the Gaza strip will come to an end.

1.Regime Change -ie use its momentum to take control of Gaza City and decapitate Hamas.

2.Long-term Cease-fire-

An actual disarming of Hamas' current militias is unlikely without a full-scale reoccupation of Gaza, which would involve tens of thousands more Israeli troops over many months. Anything less will see Hamas continue to be the dominant security presence inside Gaza. So, Israel's priority will be to choke off the supply of rockets and mortar shells, which have been smuggled through tunnels from Gaza and fired at Israel

3.The Guns Go Silent Without a Formal Truce-

If the offensive cannot deal Hamas a death blow, Israel may see benefit in holding its fire, in line with the first phase of the Egyptian plan but not necessarily concluding a comprehensive cease-fire. It would simply maintain the halt to hostilities and even withdraw its forces on an open-ended basis.

World Vision will not be getting another penny from Tim Montgomerie

Tim Montgomerie is not very happy with the charity World Vision after reading this in the Herald today

"Plans for closer ties between the European Union and Israel must be halted until there is a "comprehensive" ceasefire in the Gaza offensive, aid agencies demanded today... The coalition of agencies, including Oxfam, World Vision, Muslim Aid and Christian Aid, say Brussels should use ongoing talks on closer EU-Israel relations as a lever. An EU-Israel Association Agreement is being stepped up to "gradually integrate Israel into European policies and programmes", said the Commission. Under the deal, Israel is eligible for almost £13 million in EU "financial cooperation" in the next seven years... Daleep Mukarji, director of Christian Aid UK and Ireland, said: "Israel has shunned diplomatic efforts by the EU, and the EU's credibility is now at stake. It is inconceivable that we should extend further benefits of European partnership to a government that violates international humanitarian law and refuses negotiation in favour of continued violence. It is time for robust EU action to bring about an immediate ceasefire and end the violence on all sides."

Well everyone is entitled to their opinion but charities should be allowed a view and should speak up when they feel that things are wrong.

Anyway Tim will no longer be giving a penny to World Vision

Who broke the ceasefire in Gaza?

It worth reading Robin Lustig's post on the events in the Gaza strip.

He reminds us that

On 4 November, when much of the world was watching Barack Obama win the US presidential election, Israeli forces crossed into the Gaza Strip and killed six Hamas fighters. Israel says Hamas was building a tunnel under the border fence at Deir al-Balah which it intended to use to kidnap Israeli soldiers. Hamas responded by launching rockets and mortar shells into Israel.

190 to be exact

Whereas during the ceasefire these were the figures on launches

19-30 June: 9
July: 20
August: 17
September: 2
October: 2

Some blogging perspective on the Gazan attacks

It is difficult to find any sympathy for Israel after the events of the last few days.

No matter what the provocation,the seemingly endless bombing of civilian targets in this day and age is fairly inexusable.

Israel will point to the breakdown in the ceasefire and the luanching of rockets on its own civilians by Hamas.

The best perspective on the violence is to look at the Global voices website which as on many past occassions gives a bloggers insight into both sides of the tale.

This from an Israeli blogger

My feelings about what happened in Gaza yesterday: I feel very sad that it had
to be that way. But it had to be that way. We can't let rockets rain down on our
citizens and do nothing. I look forward to the day -- may I live to see it --
when the Palestinian leadership figures out what "compromise" and "good
leadership" and "promises" and "tolerance" actually mean. I'd really like for
our army to have nothing to do. That would be fantastic

And this from a Gazan currently in the USA but talking about the experience of the in laws

I was out in the souk when the strikes began- I saw the missiles falling and
prayed; the earth shook; the smoke rose; the ambulances screamed" he said, the
sirens audible in the background. he was on talateeni street at the time of the
attacks, just a few streets down from one of the attack sites.My mother was in
the Red Crescent Society clinic near the universities at the time of the initial
wave of attacks, where she works part-time as a pediatrician. Behind the clinic
was one of the police centers that was leveled. She said she broke down at
first, the sheer proximity of the attacks having shaken her from the inside out.
After she got a hold of herself, they took to treating injured victims of the
attack, before they transferred them to Shifa hospital