Hain might not be returning yet but across the floor another heavyweight may be

Today's events may eventually lead to the return of Peter Hain to the cabinet but James Forsyth over at Coffee House predicts that another return to the front lines may be imminent

the prospect of David Davis being asked to come back to the top table looks more likely now than at any point since his spectacular resignation in June. Davis could well be back in his old job after a reshuffle in the New Year.

The reason according to James

The Damian Green affair has reminded the Tory leadership how much they miss someone with Davis’ hunting skills. Dominic Grieve was impressive in the Commons yesterday but he has failed to cut through in the media. He was outperformed on Newsnight the other night by Chris Huhne which is rather like being the second tallest mountain in Holland.

Je ne regret rien

Or that is the official line anyway from David Davis who reveals all to James MacIntyre at the New Statesman.

And there are some revelations,most notably that George Osborne and Michael Gove were highly sceptical of his move to fight the government over the 42 days.

Osborne was worried about “whether we could be outflanked to the right”. Perhaps, surprisingly, Davis says he had “no idea” about where most of the shadow cabinet stood on the issue. He denies that there was too much tension, describing it as an “entirely proper debate on where the tactical position should be”.

David Cameron it seems tried to dissuade him

a panicked Cameron was repeatedly ringing his outgoing shadow home secretary’s mobile phone.

A wry intervention by Davis

The Conservatives have been very quiet on the economic crisis this week,so much so that some are saying that George Osbourn's speech in Birmingham next week could be make or break time.

He won't therefore be very happy with former shadow Home Secretary David Davis' intervention in the Telegraph this morning.
Being interviwed he says that

The Conservative Party has not yet developed the right economic and tax policy to deal with the impact of the worsening global economic situation

and continues

"The public at large are not listening to the left versus right, the big versus small state debate,"
"They're listening for answers to the questions - can I afford my standard of living? Can I keep my job? For the first time in a long time, the answers to these questions might be no, if people get the answers wrong.
"One of the reasons for a serious message from us, is that. They don't want to hear political rhetoric."

With the polls showing at least a short term bounce towards Gordon Brown,the conference will be under intense scrutiny and people will start asking just what Tory policy is.

As if to bear that out this morning's Independent carries a poll of 1800 tOry members by Consevative Home which suggests that

64 per cent want to see bold policies to give voters a clear idea of how the Tories would fix Britain. Only 36 per cent support the more cautious approach favoured by Mr Cameron.

No surprises at Haltemprice

I see that Politics Home is reporting that David Davis' campaign has been a flop as voting gets under way in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election

David Davis has failed in his ambition to ignite a national debate on civil liberty and he'll be lucky if turnout in the by-election is above thirty per cent. Those are the headline verdicts of the PHI100, Britain's most authoritative survey of expert and inside political opinion.
A majority of the politically balanced panel (sixty per cent) think he has not succeeded in his own terms by starting a nationwide debate about civil liberties. Only a tiny minority of the panel (six per cent) believe his decision to stage a by-election, especially on the issue of 42 day detention without charge, can be called an unqualified success.
Right-leaning and left-leaning panellists share broadly the same view about his by-election gambit. Liberal panellists are slightly more inclined to think he has succeeded a little.

Hardly surprising since no front line candidates decided to take him up on the offer,a warning that came almost immediately following his resignation.

Has it brought the attention of the public to civil liberties.Well one poll showed that 61% of people oppose detaining terrorist suspects for longer than 28 days. Four weeks ago 69% were said to support the government view on 42 days.

Not ideal comparison and may be put down to the debate in the Commons rather than Davis in particular.

It may be that the House of Lords may now be the ultimate arbiter of the debate

What happened to David Davis?

Conservative Home has the results of a poll which shows that party members think that David Davis was wrong to resign.

However they also feel that David Cameron should back him.

I have to say that the topic of freedom's seems to have gone off the agenda far quicker than it came onto it.With Davis now up against a rag tag of candidates,his attempts to force the issue onto the British puiblic have failed.

Has he squandered a cabinet position for the sake of principles that are off the agenda.

Just to remind you these are the 10 principles that Davis launched his campaign on last week

Reverse 42 days pre-charge detention – a ‘PR coup for Al-Qaeda’.

Scrap ID cards – put the £19 billion savings towards a Border Police Force and other security measures.

Immediate reversal of the ban on free speech outside Parliament.

Protect the right to trial by jury.

Stop neighbourhood spies using powers that should rest with the police and MI5.
Use intercept evidence to prosecute terrorists – but restrict bugging by local councils.

Replace 1 million innocent citizens on the DNA database with the serious criminals left off.

Make CCTV more effective (80% is unusable) – strengthen punishments for privacy abuse.

Slash the 266 separate powers the state has to force its way into the home.
Launch an independent inquiry into the government’s serial database failures.

First poll shows some support for Davis

This morning's Independent carries a boost for the David Davis campaign with an opinion poll that shows that

that 35 per cent of people would vote for the former shadow home secretary if they lived in his Haltemprice and Howden constituency.

The IpsosMORI poll showed that

voters were split over whether he was right or wrong to resign over the Government's moves to raise to 42 days the period for which suspected terrorists can be held without charge. While 39 per cent believed he was right, 48 per cent said he was wrong, while 13 per cent replied "don't know".

A bad move for the Sun

I don’t trust this Government, the police or the State bureaucracy to discriminate between keeping an eye out for our well-being and spying on us.
Information is power. And the authorities — national and local — have far too much of the stuff already.

The best so far that the Sun can muster in support of David Davis,from Trevor Kavanagh's column this morning and perhaps that lack of support could be significant.

The paper after all have supported the 42 day bill and is firmly behind the idea of ID cards.
Most Sun readers will instinctively support 42 days’ detention without trial for terror suspects if it helps prevent an atrocity on the streets of Britain.
They would accept ID cards as a sensible way of co-ordinating swathes of information already in the public domain if it made life easier as well as more secure.

However the paper up to now has been quiet on the issue.It is now becoming increasingly unlikely that Kelvin MacKenzie will stand in the by election.

Writing in the Independent this morning Stephen Glover observes

it is possible that some other people are about to make a mistake that could surpass Mr Davis's............If they (the Sun)have any sense they will promptly lower it, and go back to what they are best at doing, and have spent their time on this earth doing – producing newspapers.
In democracies, governments do not own newspapers, though they try to manipulate them, and sometimes succeed. For their part, newspapers and their proprietors do not own governments,

Davis-the latest.

Telegraph online are reporting that David Davis is rumoured to have stalled on his resignation so that he ca bring up the subject of civil liberties during PMQ's on Wednesday.

The shadow home secretary had been expected to formally quit today, but has told friends he will not now hand his resignation letter in to the Treasury until Wednesday afternoon.

says the report.

Meanwhile it seems highly unlikely now that he will face Kelvin MacKenzie,Guardian online reporting

executives at the Sun, which MacKenzie originally said might back his candidacy, and owner News International are understood have cooled on the idea and sources said it is unlikely to proceed.
The Sun has not referred to the mooted campaign by its columnist once in print since MacKenzie and Murdoch, the paper's proprietor, discussed it at a party on Thursday night for editor Rebekah Wade.

Over at Conservative Home Davis tells why he quit and starts with a line from History

The Austrian Chancellor Metternich was once told of the death of a rival. "I wonder what did he mean by that?" was his response.
If Metternich were alive today he might have enjoyed a second career as a Westminster commentator. He would certainly have been able to give full rein to his thirst for the conspiracy theory, rumour, gossip and wild speculation. No story need be constrained by the dreary recitation of the facts. Instead, it can be spiced up spectacularly by all manner of guesses, intrigues and sinister motives. Welcome to the Westminster Village circa 2008.

Guido is first off the mark with news that daviddavisforfreedom.com is set to launch tomorrow

The Sun will stand against Davis

With it now unlikely that Labour will put up a candidate to stand against David Davis,this morning brings news that ex Sun editor and Murdoch supporter Kelvin MacKenzie

Appearing last night on Andrew Neil's show last night and on the Today programme,he said that if Labour did not stand he would stand up for Britain's battle against terrorism and subsversion.

Being entirely honest,Kelvin said that both Rupert Murdoch and Sun editor Rebecca Wade has asked him to stand and he was the Sun's candidate.The paper has been the only paper to consistently stand alongside the government over the 42 day issue

Tory members in support of Davis according to Conservative Home

Conservative Home has been running a poll of 1291 party members and the consensus is that he has done the right thing.

This is an inspired move that will draw great attention to a vital issue:
Agree: 65%
Disagree: 25%

The Conservatives should repeal 42 days pre-charge detention when/ if we come into Government.
Agree: 87%
Disagree: 8%

More on the Lib Dems and the "by election"

Over at the Lib Dems,all is not bliss about Nick Clegg's decision not to contest the by election in Haltemprice & Howden:


The rumour is that the potential candidate David Nolan has not been informed of the decision before Clegg's announcement minutes after Davis' performance at lunchtime.

However the party machine is up and running and Mr Nolan has released the following statement

As David Davis is standing on the one single issue of opposing 42 day detention without charge and we happen to agree with him, the collective view of our Party is that we will not stand against him at this by-election.
As Lib Dem PPC for the Constituency, I fully support that decision.
However at the next General Election, when he will be standing on a Conservative Party Manifesto, we will oppose him vigorously.

and this from Simon Hughes

This morning, Nick Clegg and I spoke and formed a common view that, in these exceptional circumstances, it would be best not to put up a candidate in this by-election. I then consulted with the local and regional party chairs, explained the position and obtained their agreement to this course of action, which the Chair of the English Party also understands and supports

. adding

This morning, Nick Clegg and I spoke and formed a common view that, in these exceptional circumstances, it would be best not to put up a candidate in this by-election. I then consulted with the local and regional party chairs, explained the position and obtained their agreement to this course of action, which the Chair of the English Party also understands and supports.

Hat Tip Lib Dem Voice

A home for Davis if it all goes wrong

If he does manage to lose the by election,he has a fall back position.

The UK libertarian party have just put out this press release

The Libertarian Party invites David Davis to "Join Us"
The UK Libertarian Party has extended an invitation to David Davis to join them, after the Shadow Home Secretary resigned as an MP over the 42 day detention law.
The party's Director of Communications, Chris Mounsey, said, "The Libertarian Party applauds David Davis' principled stand over this deeply illiberal measure.As such, we feel sure that Mr Davis would be right at home in the Libertarian Party and invite him to join us."

Davis-the fall guy?

Rumours now swirling around following the shock resignation.

Principally that Davis and Cameron had a blazing row over the 42 days.

According to Bob Piper

the reality of Davis' resignation is that this is not a matter of principle, but base power politics. It is an internal battle between Cameron, who doesn't want to commit the Tories to reverting to 28 days (that good old populism again) and Davis who has been pushing that line. Davis wants to use the election to force Cameron's hand publicly.

Michael Savage has the same theory

One explanation springs to mind. Yesterday on the Today programme, Davis said that he would repeal the 42-day detention law if the Tory Party came to power. Could it be that Cameron was not party to such a policy statement before it was made?

Labour home says

Other members of the Shadow Cabinet were believed to be briefing against Davis this morning over the issue.

Dominic Grieve's comment on asked whether Davis would return to his electio if re elected can also be interpreted in a way that suggests all is not right.

Still no word from Labour heights

The right move

I wonder whether this is going to backfire on both Davis and Cameron?

Fisrtly let's remember that polls published yesterday showed that the majority of the public behind the 42 days.

Secondly is the Conservative party really united behind this libertarian agenda?

Thirdly suppose Labour joins the Lib Dems and doesn't put up a candidate,then the by election may become a none event.

Fourthly this is a man that could potentially become Home Secretary.However much we admire his principles,can a prospective holder of a high state office really resign on a whim?

Andy McSmith writes at Open house

as the days go by, David Davis is going to regret the rush of blood to the head that led to today's announcement. He tried to give his action a heroic gloss by pointing out that he is putting his political life at risk, but that is largely beside the point. He is not likely to lose a by election; indeed if he cannot hold onto this seat with the Tories this far ahead in the polls, you wonder what can he do.

There is no official word yet from the Labour party but as James Kirkup suggests

Minutes before DD's announcement, I took a call from a Labour person who has been involved in his party's strategising over terror laws, asking if the rumours were true. Told that yes, the Shadow Home Secretary was going, this Labour type simply dissolved into laughter, gasping words like "idiot" and "bloody brilliant."
Listen carefully and you can hear champagne corks popping in Downing Street.

No official word yet from Labour

A most extraordinary statement

13.00 now making statement live outside the Commons.

Up to yesterday describes his crusade as a noble endeavour guaranteeing freedoms.

This was destroyed yesterday.He describes the moves as undemocratic and politically motivated and an erosion of British freedoms along with identity cards,Dna databases,CCTV cameras.

This cannot go on and he feels he must take a stand by resigning his seat and re-fighting it ,based on defending those freedoms,the intruding state and the erosion of fundamental rights.

The question is where does Cameron stand in all this.Surely this is not a publicity stunt for the Tory party.Adam Boulton on Sky news at the moment believes that Cameron will support him but the idea must have come from Davis.

Cameron is due to make a statement within the hour.Sky news believes that this was a personal decision.

But it is going to bring the subject of freedoms to the fore.

Latest-The Lib Dems will not put up a candidate in the seat because they agree with the position.

David Davis set to resign according to the BBC

No sooner had I posted that I wouldn't write anything more about 42 days comes the news that the shadow Home Secretary is to resign his seat.

BBC news are reporting that

It is thought he wants to trigger a by-election in his Haltemprice and Howden seat.
Mr Davis has been a passionate opponent of plans to extend the terror detention limit to 42 days.
It is thought he has privately threatened to resign if the Tories wavered on the issue. He will make a statement shortly

So what do you get for 20 grand?

£20,OOO appears a popular figure today as a sum that a number of politicans have been accused of as squandering.

Read this morning's Indy and it is David Davis,Tory Shadow Home Secretary who

faces the prospect of an Electoral Commission inquiry over a substantial donation that passed through several hands and was declared by four people, including Derek Conway

.

In the Sunday Times,it is the rising star of the cabinet James Purnell who

bought a flat in London before becoming an MP and his Manchester constituency home, which he acquired several years later. He was able to claim thousands of pounds of MPs’ expenses on the London home and is accused of exploiting a tax loophole to avoid a huge bill on its sale.

Whilst turn to the pages of the Telegraph and it is senior Tory Michael Ancram who

claimed more than £20,000 in housing expenses last year, explaining that he had to paint his property and remove moss from the garden.

Game set and match?