David Davis has failed in his ambition to ignite a national debate on civil liberty and he'll be lucky if turnout in the by-election is above thirty per cent. Those are the headline verdicts of the PHI100, Britain's most authoritative survey of expert and inside political opinion.
A majority of the politically balanced panel (sixty per cent) think he has not succeeded in his own terms by starting a nationwide debate about civil liberties. Only a tiny minority of the panel (six per cent) believe his decision to stage a by-election, especially on the issue of 42 day detention without charge, can be called an unqualified success.
Right-leaning and left-leaning panellists share broadly the same view about his by-election gambit. Liberal panellists are slightly more inclined to think he has succeeded a little.
Hardly surprising since no front line candidates decided to take him up on the offer,a warning that came almost immediately following his resignation.
Has it brought the attention of the public to civil liberties.Well one poll showed that 61% of people oppose detaining terrorist suspects for longer than 28 days. Four weeks ago 69% were said to support the government view on 42 days.
Not ideal comparison and may be put down to the debate in the Commons rather than Davis in particular.
It may be that the House of Lords may now be the ultimate arbiter of the debate
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