Cabinet splits over growth and red tape

This morning's FT contains an interesting report revealing that there are increasing divisions amongst the cabinet over the lack of economic growth and the slow progress being made in coming up with plans to lift burdens on business.

The report says that Vince Cable believes that some other ministers have failed to grasp the gravity of the situation facing British companies and that they have not prioritised the need to cut red tape across the board.

His frustration is also shared by Downing St and by George Osborne in particular and a lot of their frustration appears directed at Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith who department has been slow inimplementing reforms to health and safety laws.

Maybe one to watch?

Public want Cable as Chancellor

An interesting new survey just out from Politics Home who have found that Vince Cable has emerged as the public's preferred choice to become the next chancellor.

Thirty one per cent polled said that Cable was the best candidate for the job whilst Ken Clarke was favoured by 16 per cent to return as chancellor.

Lagging well down the pecking order,George Osborne with 12 per cent and current Chancellor Alastair Darling.

Are Barclay's profits moral

Barclays are proud of being one of the banks that didn't go running to the government to borrow back in autumn of 2008.

Instead they went to Middle Eastern backers.Today they have announced massive increases in profits up 92 per cent at £11.6b

As with last year its top people have rejected bonus payments but nevertheless it will pay £1.5bn in bonuses for 2009 and a further £1.2bn are to be paid over three years.

Critics argue though that these profits are only the result of the government's general guarantees to the banking sector.If other banks had collapsed then Barclay's would have gone as well.

How moral are these profits and bonuses?

Vince Cable has already been on air making the very point and with this morning's news that the banking sector is still not lending at appropriate rates to the commercial sector,he called for the bank to be broken up into separate investment and commercial banks, and to pay a fee for the government guarantee it has enjoyed since the start of the financial crisis.

Be very aware when Cable makes a prediction

our future as a country depends much more on our ability to plan ahead for the next oil shock and the post-oil world.

Writing in the Daily Mail this morning,Vince Cable is predicting that a future oil shock could be just around the corner.

Motorists will have noticed that we are back up to £1-a-litre for unleaded petrol at many garages.
We may have not yet reached the heady heights of last summer, but the trend is unmistakable.
Even in a recession, there is the danger of inflation for some essential products such as petrol.
The reason he says is that whilst the West is in recession demand for oil continues to rise in both India and China

The Cable bounce replaces the Brown one and the Whistleblower's revenge

Two opinion polls this morning reaffirm that the Brown is officially over.

But what is interesting is the Com Res in the Indepedent which suggests that Labour support is migrating to the Lib Dems.

Is this a case of Vince Cable being seen as a credible alternative on the economy and maybe perhaps filling the gap that the Tories are not providing?

The man himself writes a column in the Mail on Sunday in which he takes a look at the weeks events surrounding Sir James Crosby.

One bad appointment: OK, we all make mistakes. It then emerged that the man appointed by the Government to manage the taxpayers’ shareholding in the banks – including the semi-nationalised RBS-NatWest and Lloyds-HBOS – was Glen Moreno, a financier with a colourful CV.

Perhaps though of more worry to the government are the revelations on the front of the Independent.The paper reports that

The HBOS whistleblower whose revelations led to the resignation of one of the Government's top regulators is about to release a tranche of documents which he says point a direct and accusatory finger at Gordon Brown's responsibility for the banking crisis, and has called on the Prime Minister to resign.

Good spot from Iain Dale

Does the BBC know something that we don't

Ht-Iain Dale

The ultimate almanac

He got a lot correct in 2008 so it is worth reading Vince Cable's Almanac in the Mail this morning

According to Vince

There is already a thread of anxiety running through the seasonal cheer and in the next 12 months we will see a dramatic deterioration in economic conditions.
The public mood will change as people gradually realise that we are in the economic equivalent of wartime.

He predicts for 2009,unemployment to reach 3m,house prices to fall much further,and a rash of big companies to bite the dust but also good news for those with decent employers and low debt and most of all

So don’t despair. At some point we will emerge from the economic gloom, although it is hard to predict quite when, and, provided we learn our lessons, we should be a stronger and better nation

Well this could be one scenario as Brown walks off into the sunset

Iain Martin writes on Three Line whip

A Labour man, a Brownite to his fingertips with impeccable contacts, approaches me with a spring in his step. Labour believes, he says (and he is right), that it can win again. He offers a prediction and analysis of what lies ahead:
"Brown holds the election, fights on the economy and emerges at the head of the largest party. Vince Cable becomes leader of the Lib Dems, is made Chancellor in a coalition and demands a deal on Proportional Representation which Gordon gives him. PR means the Tories can never win again. Gordon stays as PM for a while and then walks off into the sunset having destroyed the Conservatives."

Next question.Who will be the next PM?

The knives are out for the do nothing party

Nice to see the Liberal Dems talking sense once again over the economy.

This is Vince Cable responding to David Cameron's earlier comments about the reflation of the economy

He’s completely wrong to argue that when private confidence has collapsed when consumer confidence, when business confidence collapses that government should be doing nothing – of course government should be doing something

So Vince then agrees with Gordon's synopsis that the Tories are the do nothing party.

The knives have been ouit ever since Cameron made his speech to the LSE,Yvette Cooper earlier said that

"David Cameron is basically saying the Conservative party would do nothing to boost the economy. I think that is hugely irresponsible and bad for the economy.

Wise words from Cable

Vince Cable has been portrayed as the bringer of gloom and doom but his forecasts have been mostly reliable.

It is therefore a good idea to listen to what he has to say in this mornings Indy

There is a real dilemma. Do we try to be positive and risk misleading people through complacency; or do we "tell it like it is" and risk adding to the fear and financial panic?

The truth is,he explains that nobody actually knows teither the depth or the outcome of this crisis

I believe we face a real emergency. And it will not be over soon. This crisis could drag on for a decade.

Ditch Darling for Cable

Now here is an idea for Gordon Brown via First Post's the mole.

What will Gordon Brown do if the bank bail-out doesn't work? One answer being put forward in Blairite circles yesterday is that the Prime Minister will dump his ultra-loyal Chancellor Alistair Darling - and bring in Vince Cable as a part of a deal with the Liberal Democrats. It may sound extraordinary, but the Mole heard it more than once yesterday

Not a bad idea.Cable has consistently showed himself to be infront in front of the game throughout the length of this financial crisis going right back to the Northern Rock episode.He is a good communicator

And as the Mole says

The Lib Dem Treasury spokesman's stock at Westminster is sky-high. Like some biblical prophet, Cable has long been warning of the financial crisis that has now engulfed the British economy. He was, for instance, one of the first to come up with the idea of nationalising Northern Rock

Cable has some radical proposals

I am not sure whether Vince Cable is correct in his assertion that the Bank of England's independence should be taken away on a temporary basis whilst we get through the worst of the financial crisis.

Speaking on Andrew Marr this morning in a three some with George Osbourne and Alistair Darling( is this the new face of inter party cooperation?),he felt that desperate times called for desperate measures.

It was interesting that Osbourne was not in agreement.Cable thinks that it must be deflected form its inflationary goal but as Alistair Darling pointed out it also has the remit for supporting the government's economic policy.

Cable reiterates his proposal in the Sunday Times this morning

Leadership will not come from a committee of economic ministers standing behind the chancellor, debating where to steer and fighting for control of the tiller. There has to be a sense of policy direction. Fortunately there are lessons to be learnt from previous financial tsunamis.

He calls for an immediate cut in interest rates of 2 percentage points and on Marr's show said that quarter or half percentage cuts were inadequate.

History teaches us that interest rates should be slashed during a banking crisis to stave off deep recession. This has happened in the United States, but not in Britain. The approach of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, dictated by its mandate, is to balance deflationary against inflationary risks with, in practice, occasional small adjustments in interest rates. The committee is in danger of becoming irrelevant in an environment where short and medium-term inflationary risks are massively outweighed by the danger of a once-in-a-lifetime collapse of the financial system

Vince Cable on the attack but it's not the Chancellor he is after

Politics Home has broken the story that Vince Cable is on the warpath against George Osbourne.

The Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman has written a letter

attacking him for encouraging the Government to write blank cheques for the banks at the expense of the taxpayers.

You can read the text of the letter HERE

The jist of the attack though is Osbourne's visit to Wall Street where according to Cable,the Shadow Chancellor swallowed the advice given by the men in the pinstrip suits

You say the bankers agree with you. Of course they do. It is their job to maximise profits for themselves and lay off risks to someone else. It is our job as responsible ministers or shadow ministers to protect taxpayers, not let the banks and other businesses take us for a ride.

A case of after the Lord Major's ball?

At the end of a difficult week for Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg,he faces a tough test in addressing the party's spring conference in Liverpool today.

Clegg will have to demonstrate that he is in control of his party after the eruptions of the week over the Lisbon treay, a cause not helped by Vince Cable's much plauded speach yesterday.

A case of follow that according to Sam Caotes over at Red Box

It was clever, funny and powerful enough to be a leader's speech. Vince Cable, suddenly an elder statesman of British political scene, was showing off his peculiarly effective speaking technique - reassuringly unpolished and unprofessional - at Liberal Democrat Spring conference.

James Forsyth over at Coffee house says it

showed how fortunate it was for the two main parties that he did not become leader either in 2006 or after Ming Campbell’s departure. He is able to deliver cutting criticism of the two main parties while staking out political positions that appeal to both Labour and Tory voters.

You can read the full text of the speach HERE

Alex Foster at Lib Dem voice says

At the end, conference were swift to get on their feet for a standing ovation as he left, both for a speech that was a splendid restatement of our entire fiscal policy and much of our social views, and a mark of respect for the great job he did at a difficult time as interim leader

.

Where does all this praise leave Clegg?

Reports are that he is going to emphise the differences between his party and the other two,being crotical of the Tories in pandering to public opinion.After all it is with that party that his MP's will face the greatest battle after the next election.He will also seek to show that the Lib Dems are the party of protest whether it be over Europe or being willing to break the law over ID cards.

But there is hope for the new leader,according to Martin Kettle writing in the Guardian

That is why, with the continuing eclipse of New Labour and only a modest resurgence of the Tory party, the most interesting dynamic in British politics remains - in spite of the party's occasional own best efforts - the Lib Dems. Intelligent observers, sympathetic as well as hostile, in the other two parties long ago understood that the shape of British politics in the next few years rests to a considerable degree on whether Clegg can get the Lib Dems back to the 22% that Kennedy secured three years ago.