It is difficult not to look at a blog or a paper or a website and not be forced into reading what a pundit thinks will happen in 2009.
The answer of course is that it is difficult to predict.The black swan theory says that the unexpected will happen.
Everybody is looking at the global recession,Barack Obama and Pakistan/Afghanistan,China and Russia as the areas where the news will be made next year.
At home,an election is unlikely,there will probably no change in the party leaders,there will be some cabinet and shadow cabinet reshuffles and no doubt there will be some scandals.
However I will predict now that the unpredictable will make the headlines in 2009.
If you require a good synopsis,then look no further than Robin Lustig who quotes the words of FT writer
The answer of course is that it is difficult to predict.The black swan theory says that the unexpected will happen.
Everybody is looking at the global recession,Barack Obama and Pakistan/Afghanistan,China and Russia as the areas where the news will be made next year.
At home,an election is unlikely,there will probably no change in the party leaders,there will be some cabinet and shadow cabinet reshuffles and no doubt there will be some scandals.
However I will predict now that the unpredictable will make the headlines in 2009.
If you require a good synopsis,then look no further than Robin Lustig who quotes the words of FT writer
What happens next? I do not know. Nor do you. Desperate though we are to find out, we should be grown-up enough to admit there is no one to tell us. It makes life hard, but what would we be otherwise? Curiosity about what happens next is an essential part of the joy and anguish of being human."
Here for thr record are his predictions
1. The fate of the global economy will dominate everything. It will be horrible. Enough said.
2. Gordon Brown will not call a general election.
3. Discussion about what to do in Afghanistan will increasingly become a discussion about what to do in Pakistan.
4. President Obama will start pulling US troops out of Iraq - but more slowly than some of his supporters would like. He will also announce that thousands will remain as "trainers".
5. He will announce his intention to close the detention centre at Guantanamo Bay - but then there'll be a huge fuss over who'll take the ex-detainees who can't or won't go back to their country of origin.
6. He'll make a major speech about his vision for the US's relations with the rest of the world, and especially with the Islamic world, probably in Jakarta, but maybe in Cairo or Amman.
7. There'll be growing social unrest in Russia - and China - over rising unemployment. Moscow may be tempted to deal with it in the time-honoured fashion: escalating a dispute with a neighbour (Ukraine? One of the Baltic nations?) to take voters' minds off the economic crisis.
8. The South African presidential election will see the newly-created party COPE (Congress of the People) do creditably but not outstandingly.
9. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will win the presidential election in Iran, but only after seeing off a serious challenge and amid allegations of widespread vote-fixing. It'll become increasingly clear that he wields little real power.
10. The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet empire in eastern and central Europe will be marked by endless analyses and retrospectives along the lines of: Is The World Now a Better Place?
6. He'll make a major speech about his vision for the US's relations with the rest of the world, and especially with the Islamic world, probably in Jakarta, but maybe in Cairo or Amman.
7. There'll be growing social unrest in Russia - and China - over rising unemployment. Moscow may be tempted to deal with it in the time-honoured fashion: escalating a dispute with a neighbour (Ukraine? One of the Baltic nations?) to take voters' minds off the economic crisis.
8. The South African presidential election will see the newly-created party COPE (Congress of the People) do creditably but not outstandingly.
9. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will win the presidential election in Iran, but only after seeing off a serious challenge and amid allegations of widespread vote-fixing. It'll become increasingly clear that he wields little real power.
10. The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet empire in eastern and central Europe will be marked by endless analyses and retrospectives along the lines of: Is The World Now a Better Place?
