Close call in Minnesota

The race for the Senate in Minnesota is currently neck and neck between the current incumbent the Republican Norman Coleman leading by a mere 762 votes with 99% of the votes in over his Democratic challenger Al Franken

This looks like it is going to be the closest call so far,you can follow it here

Thanks to Mark Comerford for the twitter tip

Al Franken for those that didn't know is a former Saturday Night live writer who came into this contest after being known for his political writing.

Word Clouds from Obama and McCain

From the folks at 10,000 words a wordle on Obama's and McCain's speeches

Tips on that concession speech

Ted Scheinman at Slate magazine offers some words of wisdom for John McCain before he recites his concession speech

The concession formula is pretty simple: Accept tearful, painfully drawn-out applause; crack self-deprecating joke; congratulate opponent (and stanch booing that accompanies every mention of said opponent); pledge yourself to the cause of unity; and thank your family, your supporters, God, and the American people (though not necessarily in that order).

adding that

This formula calls for brevity, focus, and graciousness, qualities that have not always been evident in the McCain campaign

First results in US elections and it's an Obama win

Yes it's official

Barack Obama has won in Dixville Notch, N.H.He won by 15-6 in this New Hampshire town

The first voter, following tradition established in 1948, was picked ahead of the midnight voting and the rest of the town's 21 registered voters followed suit in Tuesday's first minutes

So 100% turnout then

via Time Magazine

Could there be a British Obama one day?

In less than 24 hours the largest country in the world will probably have a Black president.

Could it happen here? Stephen Glover writes a very good piece in the Mail this morning asking where are the black Britons who could one day be our Obama?

Stephen writes that

one has to concede that the possibility of there being a black Prime Minister in this country in the foreseeable future is almost nil.
There are no budding political Lewis Hamiltons in the House of Commons. Among 645 MPs, only 15 are non-white, and it is not intended as any rudeness to say that none of them seems very likely to become Prime Minister or a party leader, or even to occupy one of the great offices of State.

It is an interesting point and the question is asked why in a country with racial divide it can happen but in a country of racial integration it cannot?

Perhaps part of the reason has to do with immigration. God knows, blacks in America have had a hard enough time of it, but at least as a social group they have lived in their country for a long time.
The ethnic minorities in this country are almost all descended from immigrants, some of them very recent, and it inevitably takes such communities some time to adjust to new social conditions.

Is there anything that you cannot bet on

To set US election day rolling,I note that you can even bet on the time that John McCain concedes to his opponent.

Here are the odds and the times

5/1 - Before 10pm Tuesday 4th November
7/4 - 10pm to 11pm Tuesday 4th November
11/8 - 11pm to 12pm Tuesday 4th November
3/1 - Wednesday 5th November 3 - 1
12/1 - Later than Wednesday 5th November
6/1 - No concession speech

Via Political Betting

On the cusp of political change

So after a presidential race that seems to have been with us for an eternity,this weekend sees just two days left in the race.

With major endorsements from many of the media heavy weights and well as clear leads in the opinion polls,it appears clear that America will wake up on Wednesday morning on the cusp of a new political age.

John McCain is probably the man in the wrong place at the wrong time.Although not associated directly with the Bush administration he has taken the flak for 8 years in which America's standing in the world has deteriorated rapidly.

If the world were voting in this election,Obama would be winning by a landslide.He may still do that although I feel that the Bradley affect may still kick in come Tuesday.

The problem for Obama will be the weight of expectation on his shoulders.It is not going to be a Kennedyesq 100 days in the White house.There will be no immediate withdrawal from Iraq,indeed it looks increasingly likely that there will be a military build up in Afghanistan come the New Year.

On the home front,the mistakes of a generation of politicians on welfare and health are not going to be changed overnight.The green revolution,although pushed up the ladder will not show any immediate benefits.

America needs a change,the world needs a change and let's hope that Obama's election will begin the process

If you want a good read on the subject take a look at Andrew Sullivan in this morning's Times

Obama will also have something Lincoln never had. He will be in his DNA the visible incarnation of a wound that dates to America’s beginnings. If he is elected president, there will be a healing of some sort deep in the country’s psyche. That act will be a catalyst for unknowable change in America and in America’s role in the world. We can and should focus on his challenges, on the divisions still festering in America, on economic crisis and military quagmires. But what Obama appeals to is what Reagan appealed to: an American optimism that problems can be solved and divisions can be overcome.

It's never too late to turn the tide

Mike Smithson reminds us that there are never any certainties in politics



But with Obama seemingly on his way to the White House it is worth reflecting on that November in 1948.

The picture is Harry Truman who defeated his opponent by 303-189 electoral college votes.Truman,the sitting President was in trouble.economic problems at home and pressure from the Soviet Union abroad as well as Republicans winning Congress two years earlier.
In fact many Democrats wanted to ditch Truman and replace him with Eisenhower.

Early polls saw Thomas Dewey well ahead early on and commentators felt that there was nothing that Truman could do to reverse the situation.In fact he went on a 31,000 miles campaign trek by rail and delivered his blistering campaign message to 6 million people -- an itinerary unheard of for an incumbent President.

The polls got it completely wrong predicting a 5-15 point win for Dewey.In fact Truman won by 5 points.It was attributed to early polling which failed to pick up a late swing.It nearly finished Gallop off as a pollster,30 newspapers cancelled their subscriptions.

Another stolen election

Surely it cannot happen again?

Over at Open House Peter Tatchell looks back at the 2004 presidential election which he concludes

was marred by vote-fixing that would disgrace a banana republic.

Tatchell bases his conclusions on the research of Robert Kennedy Jnr who claimed that

Republicans prevented more than 350,000 voters in Ohio from casting ballots or having their votes counted - enough to have put John Kerry in the White House

Added to that

Nearly half of the 6 million American voters living abroad3 never received their ballots — or received them too late to vote4 — after the Pentagon unaccountably shut down a state-of-the-art Web site used to file overseas registrations5. A consulting firm called Sproul & Associates, which was hired by the Republican National Committee to register voters in six battleground states6, was discovered shredding Democratic registrations7. In New Mexico, which was decided by 5,988 votes8, malfunctioning machines mysteriously failed to properly register a presidential vote on more than 20,000 ballots9. Nationwide, according to the federal commission charged with implementing election reforms, as many as 1 million ballots were spoiled by faulty voting equipment — roughly one for every 100 cast10

.

Last weeks Guardian reported that

the Republican party continues to employ operatives facing fraud accusations including one who faces criminal perjury charges.
Democrats are accusing McCain of hypocrisy after the weekend arrest of Mark Jacoby, a California Republican operative. Jacoby has been accused of voter registration fraud after registering himself to vote at two homes where he did not live.

The doomsday scenario

I can't help thinking that First Post are jumping the gun a little in their article today on John McCain.

Alexander Cockburn writes that

Among the many travails of John McCain's faltering bid for the presidency is the semi-stifled suspicion that his chances of lasting through a four-year term are not rosy. Officially, the Obama campaign has distanced itself from allegations that McCain might be a lot sicker than he lets on. Supporters have been less restrained in suggesting that the Reaper is but a step behind the 72-year-old senator from Arizona.

and reminds us that

In his last debate McCain did not look good. Commended last May by Dr Eckstein for his "extraordinary energy", McCain has mostly limited himself in recent weeks to one event a day.

Any unfortunate circumsatnces that arise would of course see the Alaskan Hockey mum enter the Oval Office

Though she has declined to release her health records, Governor Palin appears to be in exuberant health

But maybe not the American voter?????

Official Powell endorses Obama,the final nail in the coffin for McCain

The worst kept secret of the US presidential race is out over the weekend.

Colin Powell has officially endorsed Barcak Obama for the Presidency.It probably rounds off a bad few days for John McCain.

Powell described Obama as

“more diverse and inclusive way across our society” and offering a “calm, patient, intellectual, steady approach” to the nation’s problems.

And of his good friend McCain

“As gifted as he is, he is essentially going to execute the Republican agenda, the orthodoxy of the Republican agenda, with a new face and a maverick approach to it, and he’d be quite good at it,” “But I think we need a generational change.”

Whether these actions are the sign of a disgruntled Republican is unclear.The New York Times thinks

Mr. Powell’s endorsement exposed a fundamental policy rift in the fractious Republican party foreign policy establishment between the so-called pragmatists, a number of whom have come to view the Iraq war or its execution as a mistake, and a competing camp, the neoconservatives, whose thinking dominated President Bush’s first term and played a pivotal role in building the case for war

It was also apparent that Powell was not happy with McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Over at Time Mark Halperin believes

The decision is not only symbolic but, in terms of timing, one of great tactical importance. Powell is a brand unto himself in American politics, and clearly transcends the media's tendency to hype endorsements more than their actual importance to voters. However, the indisputable benefit that Powell brings Obama is that the former Secretary of State and general is sure to block out any chance McCain has of winning the next two or three days of news coverage, as the media swoons over the implications of the choice

But it might well be the final nail for John McCain as Mark continues

If some voters still see Obama as a nebulous, unknown figure with questionable associations and liberal tendencies that makes them wary of voting for an African-American, Powell's decision may ease their minds

The future if Obama loses

Courtesy of the Anorak-

A safe pair of hands

John McCain is a gambler by nature, and the bet he placed Wednesday may be among the biggest of his political life.

says Dan Balz writing in this morning's Washington Post.

The Republican presidential nominee is hoping that his abrupt decision to suspend campaigning, seek a delay of Friday's debate with Democrat Barack Obama, and return to Washington to help prod negotiations over a financial rescue package will be seen as the kind of country-first, bipartisan leadership he believes Americans want.

And a gamble it certainly is,after all one of these two candidates will be in charge of trying to control this financial gamble in 40 days time.

The Obama camp has alreday rejected the proposal to postpone the debate but he like McCain will be going to the White House for talks and discussions with George Bush.

But as Michael Cooper says in the New York Times for both of them

The new role is a risky one .It puts them directly on the line over an issue whose politics are mutating almost by the hour, forcing them to balance a sense that the country is angry about the prospect of being stuck with the bill for Wall Street’s excesses against a chance that failure to act quickly could have dire economic consequences.

Interestingly since the financial meltdown began,McCain has begun to slip down the polls

Karl Rove writing in the WSJ says that

the first debate is the most important of all, establishing an arc of opinion that persists unless jarred loose by big mistakes or dramatic events.
So whether this year's first presidential debate between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain is Friday night or postponed a few days, it may be the fall's most critical event. In the nine first debates since 1960, the perceived winner of the debate averaged a 4.2 point net swing in the Gallup poll.

Quite what that opinion will be if McCain does not appear is unclear but with the Palin effect wearing off rapidly,surely he must engage in debate with Obama over the safest pair of hands on the American political rudder?

40 days and nights for McCain

Over at the Washington Post,they are following what they term the media blackout of the McCain camp

The country may have turned its attention to the economic crisis and a staggering $700 billion bailout proposal, but political operatives still have their eyes on other issues.
Among them, for the Democrats, is keeping track of how long it's been since the Republican presidential ticket has answered questions from the media. A Web site keeps track.
As of this writing, it has been 39 days and 22 hours since Sen. John McCain last held a news conference (despite having promised to hold weekly Q&A sessions with the press if he's elected). According to the Democrats, it's been 24 days and 11 hours since his running mate, Sarah Palin, held one.

Actually since the post it is now 40 days and 8 hours

Palin affect in the polls now

For all the criticism of the choice of Sarah Palin,it now appears that John McCain's decision to put the Alaskan governor on the ticket may just be the move that propels the Republicans into having a better chance than many expected of challenging for the White House.

The latest poll of polls covering the period July to the end of August puts McCain slightly ahead of Obama by 46.7 points to 45.7 whilst the latest poll from USA today puts the gap at a staggering 10 points

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

Gallup's daily meanwhile has McCain taking the lead over the weekend on 48 points to Obama's 45.

Where the Palin effect is really taking the lead is in the Republican base states where voters were wavering over the Liberal views of McCain.The abortion issue in particular.

Alec MacGillis writes in the Washington Post of the State of Virginia where

The reaction has been remarkably instantaneous, with socially conservative voters who had barely heard of Palin electrified by the few facts they quickly learned: her longtime membership in the Assemblies of God, the largest Pentecostal denomination; her large family; her opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest; her decision to carry to term her fifth child after learning he has Down syndrome; and her belief in teaching creationism alongside evolution in public schools.

Palin -anything left to come out?

So then what has come out of the cupboard from Alaska ( or should I say the deep freeze) since the VP announcement on Friday.

Well,a 17 year old pregnant daughter whose Redneck boyfriend declares on his social networking site that he has intention of settling down with kids.Allegations of abuses of power concerning the sacking of brother in law after he split with her sister.Supporting the Alaskan independence party whose believe that the ballot of 1958 in which the state voted to join the union was rigged.Supporting the so called bridge to nowhere after stating that she was opposed to it.Having only met John McCain twice and spending $27m to get the votes of 9,000 people.

Now it is all well and good for her party and her opponents to say that these are in the past and do not matter but what does this say for the vetting process?

Have a read of the Washington Post that is reporting that

Palin was not subjected to a lengthy in-person background interview with the head of Sen. John McCain's vice presidential vetting team until last Wednesday in Arizona, the day before McCain asked her to be his running mate, and she did not disclose the fact that her 17-year-old daughter was pregnant until that meeting, two knowledgeable McCain officials acknowledged Tuesday.

I can give her the benefit of the doubt over this issues but not the machine of the Republican party.

It's Palin

So whoever wins the Presidential election,history will be made.We will either have the first Black President or the first women Vice President.
She may not have been top of the list for choice but Governor Sara Palin from Alaska has certainly drawn praise from the pundits.

She is inexperienced certainly,having only been a Governor for just over two years.She is a house wife with 5 children,one who is Down's Syndrome and has been likened as an early incarnation of Mrs Thatcher.

It is a balancing choice.She will bring the swing state of Alaska onto the Obama camp,she is strongly pro life and will bring the Catholic vote.In the short term at least it could be a good decision for the McCain team,taking the limelight away from the events in Denver last night.

However there must be a worry about how she will come across in the next couple of months.With little foreign policy experience she will surely come up short in the debates against the experienced Biden.

There is also a black cloud looming over here.You can read the full story HERE but essentially

The state legislature in Alaska voted to hire an independent investigator to see whether Ms. Palin abused her office by trying to get her former brother-in-law fired from his job as an Alaska state trooper.

Biden,foreign policy,personal or demographic?

Much reaction over Obama picking Biden as his running mate.Have a look at James Forsyth at the Spectator who says that Obama went for a Cheney when he should have picked a Gore.His rational

In a peacetime election, Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden would make perfect sense. Biden is a national security heavyweight and his presence on the ticket would reassure voters than an Obama administration would be up to speed on foreign policy rather as Cheney did for Bush in 2000. But with America still engaged in two wars, the pick is risky.

and he points out that with the selection one of his arguments with McCain will vanish

When McCain raises the question of Obama’s readiness to lead, Obama could have shot back saying: ‘I got Iraq right, you didn’t. The people who got the biggest foreign policy decision of the post Cold War wrong, they’re the people who aren’t qualified to be president.’ The presence of Biden—who voted for the war—on the ticket takes such an attack off the table.

On the other side of the pond the choice has been readily examined.The New York Times calls it a very personal decision

people involved in the process said it was not just foreign policy that tilted the balance. They said Mr. Obama’s decision had as much to do with Mr. Biden’s appeal among white working-class voters and compelling personal story, and his conclusion that the Delaware senator was “a worker.”

The Washington Post says that

Once again, Biden had resurrected a career that appeared destined for decline.
Nearly eight months ago, Biden withdrew from the 2008 presidential race after winning less than 1 percent of the delegates in Iowa's Democratic caucuses. It was an ignoble failure for one of the most prominent and senior members of the U.S. Senate, and friends worried openly about Biden's psyche. Biden worried only about what he would do next

The LA times calls it a demographic calculation too

it was clear Saturday that Biden's potential appeal to white, blue-collar Democrats -- those who did not support Obama during the primaries and remained wary of his candidacy -- was also important in Obama's selection of the Delaware senator.

We wait for the opinion polls,the latest taken by the Washington Post just before the announcement puts Obama six points ahead in the race using registered voters and 4 points amongst those likely to vote.Thus little movement since the last test in July.

Still waiting but is it Biden

According to Times Online at least,

Barack Obama will today bring an end to a week of frenzied speculation by unveiling Joe Biden as his vice-presidential running mate, a choice that he hopes will help fill some of the gaps in his own resume.
The 65-year-old Senator is expected to appear at a lunchtime rally alongside Mr Obama in Springfield, Illinois, where the Democratic nominee launched his campaign for the presidency 20 months ago.
Mr Obama had succeeded in keeping the identity of his vice-presidential pick secret until late last night when it was reported that a team of Secret Service agents had arrived at Mr Biden's home just hours after other candidates on the shortlist, such as Virginia Governor Tim Kaine and Senator Evan Bayh, were being told they were out of the running.

But are they jumping the gun,no announcement until definately later this morning from the Obama camp,the New York Times is running the same story

After the news was leaked, the Obama campaign sent out a text message to supporters during the overnight hours: “Barack has chosen Senator Joe Biden to be our VP nominee.

Politico seems certain

Barack Obama has ended an intense and highly secretive search for a vice-presidential nominee by settling on Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware—a choice calculated to offset some of the weaknesses in Obama’s own resume and produce a ticket that marries messages of change and experience.

as does the Huffington Post which is reporting the text sent

From: 622-62 Barack has chosen Senator Joe Biden to be our VP nominee. Watch the first Obama-Biden rally live at 3pm ET on www.BarackObama.com. Spread the word! Aug 23, 3:04am

Biden,Edwards,Kaine...?????????

With Democrats poised over their mobiles awaiting Barack text message as to who will be his running mate in November,the only thing for sure is that it won't be Hillary Clinton.

The Huffington Post is certain that it will be Senator Joe Biden,quoting the political betting Intrade

selling the Democrat from Delaware at 55.0 a share, meaning that a majority of betters believe that he will end up as the vice president. The Senator has shot up on the market in recent days closing more than 13 points higher than his last price. A few days ago, however, he was selling at 49 a share. Check back as the numbers update throughout the day.

with other candidates such as Even Bayh ,Governor Tim Kaine and General Wesley Clark,well behind in the running

Biden of course will be best known in this country for his plagiarising of the speeches of Neil Kinnock.

There are some other wild cards lurking around including Chet Edwards and John Kerry,the defeated candidate in 2004.Edwards incidental is the favourite of the speaker in Congress Nancy Pelosi

Over at the Politico,the talk is of Chet Edwards which says that

Democratic officials say that Edwards was one of the few Democrats whose background was checked by Obama's campaign, and he was a finalist for the job."

Over at Swampland meanwhile Jay Newton-Small picks out two dark horses Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Brian Schweitzer of Montana.For the later he is described as

an incredibly popular Red State governor who speaks Arabic, is an energy expert and is young (52). The pick would underline Obama's messages of youth and change but would leave the ticket open to experience challenges, particularly on foreign policy.

Obama is appearing at a rally in Illinois on Saturday and will present his No. 2 to the nation and undertake a pre-convention tour of battleground states,so we may well get the announcement tonight