It's never too late to turn the tide

Mike Smithson reminds us that there are never any certainties in politics



But with Obama seemingly on his way to the White House it is worth reflecting on that November in 1948.

The picture is Harry Truman who defeated his opponent by 303-189 electoral college votes.Truman,the sitting President was in trouble.economic problems at home and pressure from the Soviet Union abroad as well as Republicans winning Congress two years earlier.
In fact many Democrats wanted to ditch Truman and replace him with Eisenhower.

Early polls saw Thomas Dewey well ahead early on and commentators felt that there was nothing that Truman could do to reverse the situation.In fact he went on a 31,000 miles campaign trek by rail and delivered his blistering campaign message to 6 million people -- an itinerary unheard of for an incumbent President.

The polls got it completely wrong predicting a 5-15 point win for Dewey.In fact Truman won by 5 points.It was attributed to early polling which failed to pick up a late swing.It nearly finished Gallop off as a pollster,30 newspapers cancelled their subscriptions.