Reseach finds decline In Solar Output Unlikely To Offset Global Warming

Keeping on the green theme for today's blog,new research from the Met Office has found that solar output is likely to reduce over the next 90 years but that will not substantially delay expected increases in global temperatures caused by greenhouse gases.

The research in conjunction with the University of Reading sought to establish the most likely changes in the Sun’s activity and looks at how this could affect near-surface temperatures on Earth.

It found that the most likely outcome was that the Sun’s output would decrease up to 2100, but this would only cause a reduction in global temperatures of 0.08 °C.

This compares to an expected warming of about 2.5 °C over the same period due to greenhouse gases (according to the IPCC’s B2 scenario for greenhouse gas emissions that does not involve efforts to mitigate emissions).

Gareth Jones, a climate change detection scientist with the Met Office, said: “This research shows that the most likely change in the Sun’s output will not have a big impact on global temperatures or do much to slow the warming we expect from greenhouse gases. “It’s important to note this study is based on a single climate model, rather than multiple models which would capture more of the uncertainties in the climate system.”

The study also showed that if solar output reduced below that seen in the Maunder Minimum – a period between 1645 and 1715 when solar activity was at its lowest observed level – the global temperature reduction would be 0.13C.

Peter Stott, who also worked on the research for the Met Office, said: “Our findings suggest that a reduction of solar activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases on global temperatures in the 21st century.” During the 20th century solar activity increased to a ‘grand maximum’ and recent studies have suggested this level of activity is at or nearing its end.

Beware pancake ice

I hope that the current economic crisis will not deflect the world's polititians from the mission to prevent climate change.

A report in nature magazine says that a new species of ice is invading the Artic.It is called pancake ice and the magazine explains that

In the past, Arctic waters have been dominated by thick slabs of sea ice that last from one year to the next. But sea-ice cover is diminishing and thick ice that lasts for several years is disappearing fast, with researchers seeing a greater proportion of thin, newly formed ice.

and the consequence of this

Because the pancakes are round, for example, they have areas of open water between them when joined up, making the surface darker overall. This could have a warming effect as a result of less of the Sun's radiation being reflected. Water also slops up from these holes over the ice so that falling snow melts rather than settling, keeping the surface darker.

Ht-Mother Jones

Who will turn the tide of American foreign policy

According to ex President Jimmy Carter interviewed by Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian's Saturday magazine,the next President should take no longer than 10 minutes to change America's image in the world.

the time it would take to deliver an inaugural address that would promise that America "will never again torture a prisoner... never again attack another country unless our security is directly threatened", will honour its international agreements and do the right thing on climate change.

How do the two candidates compare and will they change America's image.

In some respects John McCain is more of a hawk in foriegn than George Bush ever was.The war in Iraq is going to be a major feature of the campaign and McCain has famously said that troops will stay in the country for as long as it takes.He voted in favour of the war,and has supported all of Bush's terror bills.In a recent speach he lookd forward to 4 years time where American troops are welcomed home as heroes,with Al Qaeda defeated in Iraq,the war won and Iraqi security forces maintaining control of the country.

By contrast Obama voted against the war,has had a consistent policy about the situation out there and has vowed to bring the troops back in a reasonable timeframe.Only last week he said that the war in Iraq has made Iran stronger and both Israel and the Uniited States more insecure.

However his willingness to talk to talk with leaders of hostile countries has unnerved an American public and his commitment to Israel has been questioned.This may well have a knock on effect in November when it comes to capturing the Jewish vote.Recently he has clarified his position

"We must isolate Hamas unless and until they renounce terrorism, recognize Israel's right to exist, and abide by past agreements," There is no room at the negotiating table for terrorist organizations."

He has pledged to close Guantanamo bay and to restore the rule of Habeas corpus.He has also shown committment to the issues of the 21st century such as global warming and fighting poverty genocide and disease.

In many respects McCain is close to these issues when the spotlight is on him.said Stephen Hess, a scholar at the Washington-based Brookings Institution said that

McCain is a ``maverick'' who often bucks Republican principles,.His emphasis on issues may change as he tries to appeal more to his party's conservative base and separate himself from Obama,

So whilst the fight for the Independent vote continues,McCain will stress his commitment to closing the detention camp and new policies to combat global warming.

A future legacy

Prince Charles came across in a new light on the Today programme this morning,interviewed about green issues and his concerns for the rain forest.

One of the questions he was asked was how could be interested in green issues when economic troubles are their first priority.

It is a good point and this article by Philip Emeagwali should make us realise that we must also plan for the future.Philip writes

Imagine that it is May 25, 2063, the 100th anniversary of Africa Day, a day for reflecting on Africa’s successes and failures. The newspaper headline announces, “Last Remaining Oilfield in West Africa’s American Territory Dries Up.”

....... “The last patch of rainforest will soon be empty land scarred by oil pipelines, pumping stations, and natural gas refineries. Wholesale pollution will be the environmental legacy for future generations

And continues

“Africa’s offshore oil reserves will ebb away. Abandoned oil wells could well become tourist attractions, and oil-boom settlements will be transformed into derelict ghost towns......

“In a world without oil, air travel will disappear, and people will voyage overseas on coal-powered ships. Farmers will use horses instead of tractors, and scythes instead of combine harvesters. As crops diminish and populations soar, famine will grip the globe. With no means to power their vehicles, parents will be housebound, without jobs, and children will walk to school.”

Well worth a read