Inflation is on the way down although the sharp drop this morning may have quite a bit to do with the fact that last January's hike in VAT is now out of the system.
The consumer price index(CPI) fell to 3.6 per cent from last month's 4.2 per cent according to figures out this morning from the Office of National Statistics.
RPI annual inflation which includes Mortgage interest payments was 3.9 per cent in January, down from 4.8 per cent in December.
According to the ONS, The largest downward pressures to this change came from fuels & lubricants, products bought in restaurants & cafes, tobacco, vehicle maintenance & repair, the purchase of new vehicles and alcoholic beverages.
Annual inflation has now fallen by 1.2 percentage points since November 2011; the only time there has been a larger fall over a period of two consecutive months was between October and December 2008.
The rate still remains well above the Bank of England's rate of 2 per cent but yesterday's forecast from the CBI suggested that the rate will be a lot nearer to the target by the end of the year
Showing posts with label uk economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label uk economy. Show all posts
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Thursday, 9 February 2012
Quantitative easing to continue
So just if we didn't know that the UK economy was teetering on the brink,this lunchtime's news that the Bank of England is to inject a further £50bn into the economy through the mechanism known as Quantitative easing.
Announcing that interest were to continue at 0.5 per cent where they have been now for over three years,the measure now takes the total asset purchases that the bank has made from £275bn to £325bn since it first introduced the measure to ward off the threat of fiscal meltdown.
The critics are still out on this policy.It is technically printing money and putting it back into the economy which can lead to inflation,if demand was increasing but the fact that it hasn't and that the Bank of England continues to do it, merely illustrates the dire situation that we are in.
It is worth reading Daniel Knowles piece on the Telegraph blog where he explains the economics behind it
The reasoning behind the Bank's move you can read Here but suffice to say that the bank has concerns that the underlying pace of recovery slowed during 2011, with activity falling slightly during the final quarter.
Some recent business surveys have painted a more positive picture and asset prices have risen. But the pace of expansion in the United Kingdom’s main export markets has also slowed and concerns remain about the indebtedness and competitiveness of some euro-area countries
Announcing that interest were to continue at 0.5 per cent where they have been now for over three years,the measure now takes the total asset purchases that the bank has made from £275bn to £325bn since it first introduced the measure to ward off the threat of fiscal meltdown.
The critics are still out on this policy.It is technically printing money and putting it back into the economy which can lead to inflation,if demand was increasing but the fact that it hasn't and that the Bank of England continues to do it, merely illustrates the dire situation that we are in.
It is worth reading Daniel Knowles piece on the Telegraph blog where he explains the economics behind it
The reasoning behind the Bank's move you can read Here but suffice to say that the bank has concerns that the underlying pace of recovery slowed during 2011, with activity falling slightly during the final quarter.
Some recent business surveys have painted a more positive picture and asset prices have risen. But the pace of expansion in the United Kingdom’s main export markets has also slowed and concerns remain about the indebtedness and competitiveness of some euro-area countries
Friday, 3 February 2012
UK economy set for 2012 recession says latest survey
Britain's economy is set to contract this year but will start to grow in 2013 according to a report out this morning.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research are forcasting that the UK economy remains weak, and over the near term do not expect economic conditions to improve.
They expect output to be flat this year, as both the private and public sectors continue simultaneous deleveraging.
They believe that consumer price inflation will fall back to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2013 but say that unemployment will continue to rise this year to about 9 per cent, and to remain elevated for the next few years.
Unemployment at this elevated level for such a long period,they say is likely to do permanent damage to the supply side of the economy, with large long-run economic costs.
Looking further afield,the Institute are forcasting global growth of 3.5 per cent in 2012. Growth,they say, will accelerate to 4 per cent in 2013, representing a downward revision of about 0.5 of a percentage point in each year compared to their last forecast.
The UK economy they say, currently suffers from deficient demand with the current stance of fiscal policy contributing to this deficiency.
They add that a temporary easing of fiscal policy in the near term would boost the economy.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research are forcasting that the UK economy remains weak, and over the near term do not expect economic conditions to improve.
They expect output to be flat this year, as both the private and public sectors continue simultaneous deleveraging.
They believe that consumer price inflation will fall back to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2013 but say that unemployment will continue to rise this year to about 9 per cent, and to remain elevated for the next few years.
Unemployment at this elevated level for such a long period,they say is likely to do permanent damage to the supply side of the economy, with large long-run economic costs.
Looking further afield,the Institute are forcasting global growth of 3.5 per cent in 2012. Growth,they say, will accelerate to 4 per cent in 2013, representing a downward revision of about 0.5 of a percentage point in each year compared to their last forecast.
The UK economy they say, currently suffers from deficient demand with the current stance of fiscal policy contributing to this deficiency.
They add that a temporary easing of fiscal policy in the near term would boost the economy.
Wednesday, 25 January 2012
Sliding into a technical recession
0.2 of a percentage point may not seem a great deal in the context of the UK economy but this morning we now know officially that our economy is shrinking.
The fourth quarter of the year saw gross domestic product dropping by a greater-than-expected amount and appears to point to the fact that we are sliding into recession.
The reason for the worst than expected figures was that service sector output was flat during the quarter rather than up by 0.2 which is what analysts were expecting.
If we do enter recession this year,it may be more of a technical one rather a much deeper type which we experienced in 2008-2009 but nevertheless,be it recession or flat line growth(cue Ed Ball's handsignals) we are in for a bumpy ride this year and next.
Yesterday saw the IMF once again cutting its global forecasts for world growth down from four per cent to 3.25 per cent at the same time cutting its growth forecast for the UK economy to 0.6 per cent from 1.6 per cent. Speaking before the figures were the top dog at the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King gave some hope saying that there was scope for another round of quantitative easing and to leave interest rates at record lows if necessary because inflation is falling.
A small crumb of comfort maybe from the Bank but King also warned that 2012 would not be an easy year and said the recovery from the banking crisis will be slow.
Responding to the figures Ed Balls has described the figures as a damning indictment of David Cameron and George Osborne’s failed economic plan.
“And far from the eurozone crisis being to blame, it is only rising exports that kept us out of recession last year. By clobbering the economy with spending cuts and tax rises that go too far and too fast, the Government has left us badly exposed if the eurozone crisis deepens this year. This was entirely avoidable and the Chancellor cannot say he wasn’t warned." said the shadow Chancellor
The fourth quarter of the year saw gross domestic product dropping by a greater-than-expected amount and appears to point to the fact that we are sliding into recession.
The reason for the worst than expected figures was that service sector output was flat during the quarter rather than up by 0.2 which is what analysts were expecting.
If we do enter recession this year,it may be more of a technical one rather a much deeper type which we experienced in 2008-2009 but nevertheless,be it recession or flat line growth(cue Ed Ball's handsignals) we are in for a bumpy ride this year and next.
Yesterday saw the IMF once again cutting its global forecasts for world growth down from four per cent to 3.25 per cent at the same time cutting its growth forecast for the UK economy to 0.6 per cent from 1.6 per cent. Speaking before the figures were the top dog at the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King gave some hope saying that there was scope for another round of quantitative easing and to leave interest rates at record lows if necessary because inflation is falling.
A small crumb of comfort maybe from the Bank but King also warned that 2012 would not be an easy year and said the recovery from the banking crisis will be slow.
Responding to the figures Ed Balls has described the figures as a damning indictment of David Cameron and George Osborne’s failed economic plan.
“And far from the eurozone crisis being to blame, it is only rising exports that kept us out of recession last year. By clobbering the economy with spending cuts and tax rises that go too far and too fast, the Government has left us badly exposed if the eurozone crisis deepens this year. This was entirely avoidable and the Chancellor cannot say he wasn’t warned." said the shadow Chancellor
Thursday, 12 January 2012
Tesco faltering and RBS cutting as more gloom is piled on the UK economy
Two bits of bad news for our flaying economy this morning.
Tesco reporting that it did not have a good Xmas with results for the six weeks to the 7th January showing a 2.3 percent drop in sales, excluding fuel and VAT sales tax, at British stores open a year.
The firm gave a warning about its profitability into 2012 saying that it expected minimal trading profit growth in the year to February 2013 as cash-strapped Britons have been cutting back spending on non-essential goods.
Its shares have taken a battering on the stock markets this morning after the news with its price dropping 12 percent to a 32-month low at 339.5 pence,wiping 3.7 billion pounds off its value.
Meanwhile tax payer owned RBS is to axe over 3,500 jobs in investment banking and sell or shut equities and advisory business under its 3-year plan to focus more on domestic retail and corporate banking.
According to Reuters,RBS said it is adapting to "significant new pressures" on its wholesale banking business, and the changes will make it more conservatively funded, more focused on customers and better able to deliver stable returns.
Tesco reporting that it did not have a good Xmas with results for the six weeks to the 7th January showing a 2.3 percent drop in sales, excluding fuel and VAT sales tax, at British stores open a year.
The firm gave a warning about its profitability into 2012 saying that it expected minimal trading profit growth in the year to February 2013 as cash-strapped Britons have been cutting back spending on non-essential goods.
Its shares have taken a battering on the stock markets this morning after the news with its price dropping 12 percent to a 32-month low at 339.5 pence,wiping 3.7 billion pounds off its value.
Meanwhile tax payer owned RBS is to axe over 3,500 jobs in investment banking and sell or shut equities and advisory business under its 3-year plan to focus more on domestic retail and corporate banking.
According to Reuters,RBS said it is adapting to "significant new pressures" on its wholesale banking business, and the changes will make it more conservatively funded, more focused on customers and better able to deliver stable returns.
UK Comms Sector is vital in rebalancing the economy says CBI report
The Government needs to “think big” when it publishes its forthcoming Communications Bill, and be ambitious about what one of the UK’s fastest growing sectors can achieve according to the Confederation of British business (CBI).
In a new report, called Blazing a trail the CBI says the communications industry should play a key part in rebalancing the economy. To support this, the Government must ensure that regulation is suitable for a dynamic industry, encourage competition in the communications sector, maximise export opportunities, and ensure the UK has the infrastructure it needs to compete on a global stage.
The UK,says the report is already a major global player in communications, with a sector worth at least £50 billion a year to the economy in value terms, and the potential to grow its annual exports by more than 8.7 per cent between now and the end of the decade.
However, major economies as diverse as Singapore, Sweden and China are investing in technology to compete, and the UK cannot afford to take its hard-earned position for granted. The CBI’s recommendations include ensuring that regulations are supportive of convergence, are targeted at a clear outcome and work with the grain of consumer demand as well as a thorough review of the obligations placed on Public Service Broadcasters, to ensure that they remain relevant in a convergent digital world
It also recommends the creation of a (non-binding) advisory panel, with representatives from industries within the communications sector meeting regularly to achieve progress on difficult issues.
Dr Neil Bentley, CBI Deputy Director-General, said: “The UK is known around the world for its cultural exports, whether it’s Adele topping the charts in 18 countries around the world, or Downton Abbey being screened in over 200 territories.
However it added that the UK’s communications sector is worth much more than its high profile successes. It has the potential to grow its exports faster than most other sectors over the coming decade, and can therefore play a key role in rebalancing our economy and reducing our reliance on domestic consumption.
“That’s why we need the Government to think big in its forthcoming Communications Bill. Our communications sector needs a framework in place that will enable and encourage innovation, with a clear and consistent approach to regulations.”
In a new report, called Blazing a trail the CBI says the communications industry should play a key part in rebalancing the economy. To support this, the Government must ensure that regulation is suitable for a dynamic industry, encourage competition in the communications sector, maximise export opportunities, and ensure the UK has the infrastructure it needs to compete on a global stage.
The UK,says the report is already a major global player in communications, with a sector worth at least £50 billion a year to the economy in value terms, and the potential to grow its annual exports by more than 8.7 per cent between now and the end of the decade.
However, major economies as diverse as Singapore, Sweden and China are investing in technology to compete, and the UK cannot afford to take its hard-earned position for granted. The CBI’s recommendations include ensuring that regulations are supportive of convergence, are targeted at a clear outcome and work with the grain of consumer demand as well as a thorough review of the obligations placed on Public Service Broadcasters, to ensure that they remain relevant in a convergent digital world
It also recommends the creation of a (non-binding) advisory panel, with representatives from industries within the communications sector meeting regularly to achieve progress on difficult issues.
Dr Neil Bentley, CBI Deputy Director-General, said: “The UK is known around the world for its cultural exports, whether it’s Adele topping the charts in 18 countries around the world, or Downton Abbey being screened in over 200 territories.
However it added that the UK’s communications sector is worth much more than its high profile successes. It has the potential to grow its exports faster than most other sectors over the coming decade, and can therefore play a key role in rebalancing our economy and reducing our reliance on domestic consumption.
“That’s why we need the Government to think big in its forthcoming Communications Bill. Our communications sector needs a framework in place that will enable and encourage innovation, with a clear and consistent approach to regulations.”
Monday, 9 January 2012
First up this week and HMV continues to decline
It is going to be a busy week for the UK retail industry as a sting of traders report on their Xmas performance.
First up today,already under pressure HMV which has seen its sales fell 8.2 percent in the five weeks to December 31.
The group were on the brink during last year,with falling profits,saddled with 164 million pounds of debt and facing intense competition from online music sales,can take at least a glimmer of hope from the results.
The results were an improvement on like-for-like sales which were down 13.2 percent in the seven weeks to December 17,although analysts are pointing out that Xmas Eve falling on a Saturday helped that comparison.
According to Chief Executive Simon Fox,"The continuing actions to focus the business and to expand our technology offering are beginning to show through, adding that
"We are seeing a combination of a slowing of the decline in music and film, and acceleration in the growth of technology. Undoubtedly trading conditions and the consumer environment remain challenging, but we remain confident in HMV's future prospects
Meanwhile grocery chain Morrisons is forecasting a tough 2012 after reporting a slowdown in sales growth over Christmas.
The figures have surprised analysts who believed that the chain's strength in fresh food coupled with its lesser dependence than it rivals on consumer goods would see it reap the benefit of consumer cutbacks
Sales at stores open over a year rose 0.7 percent, excluding fuel and VAT sales tax, in the six weeks to January 1 but that was down from 2.4 percent growth in its fiscal third quarter.
First up today,already under pressure HMV which has seen its sales fell 8.2 percent in the five weeks to December 31.
The group were on the brink during last year,with falling profits,saddled with 164 million pounds of debt and facing intense competition from online music sales,can take at least a glimmer of hope from the results.
The results were an improvement on like-for-like sales which were down 13.2 percent in the seven weeks to December 17,although analysts are pointing out that Xmas Eve falling on a Saturday helped that comparison.
According to Chief Executive Simon Fox,"The continuing actions to focus the business and to expand our technology offering are beginning to show through, adding that
"We are seeing a combination of a slowing of the decline in music and film, and acceleration in the growth of technology. Undoubtedly trading conditions and the consumer environment remain challenging, but we remain confident in HMV's future prospects
Meanwhile grocery chain Morrisons is forecasting a tough 2012 after reporting a slowdown in sales growth over Christmas.
The figures have surprised analysts who believed that the chain's strength in fresh food coupled with its lesser dependence than it rivals on consumer goods would see it reap the benefit of consumer cutbacks
Sales at stores open over a year rose 0.7 percent, excluding fuel and VAT sales tax, in the six weeks to January 1 but that was down from 2.4 percent growth in its fiscal third quarter.
Wednesday, 4 January 2012
More signs of recession?
Over at Liberal Conspiracy,Richard Exell believes that we are definitely heading back into recession.
He cites among other things, the Financial Times’ survey of 83 economists’ expectations for the coming year and Deloitte’s survey of finance directors.
The words of the later are particularly worrying according to Excell
He cites among other things, the Financial Times’ survey of 83 economists’ expectations for the coming year and Deloitte’s survey of finance directors.
The words of the later are particularly worrying according to Excell
What we should worry about is the fact that Chief Finance Officers are drawing the obvious conclusion that this is not a good time to invest. This is depressing, because most optimistic scenarios are based on the fact that companies have plenty of cash and the hope for an investment-led boom. Well, that doesn’t look likely:
Online sales bolster results for Next
Next has this morning become the first of the big shops to report on their Xmas trading results.
It will be an interesting few weeks of reports to see whether consumerism will keep the country afloat or whether we are going to be consigned to the doldrums for 2012.
Anyway,it is a sort of good news and bad news for the clothing retailer which says that sales are down but was cheered by the strength of online trading.
Results for its sales from August up until Xmas eve saw sales down 2.7 per cent but it was buoyed by a 16.9 per cent rise at its online and catalogue Directory business.
The firm says its post-Christmas sale period has gone well with final clearance rates slightly ahead of 2010 and as for 2012,it says it is cautious,expecting “profit before tax only slightly up on this year.
Meanwhile retail chain John Lewis have reported like for like sales up 6.2 per cent in the 5 weeks to 31 December 2011.
Its online sales jumped 27.9 per cent year on year, breaking through the £600m barrier in the year to date with the department store’s click and collect service seeing a 90 per centincrease in usage. The group though warns about the year ahead saying that 2012 will “undoubtedly be challenging”
Group MD Andy Street said: “Sales during the four weeks to Christmas Eve were outstanding." adding “The first week of clearance saw a very strong start, but against the pre-VAT increase week in 2010, it was always going to be a challenge to match sales, particularly with ‘big ticket’ items.
It will be an interesting few weeks of reports to see whether consumerism will keep the country afloat or whether we are going to be consigned to the doldrums for 2012.
Anyway,it is a sort of good news and bad news for the clothing retailer which says that sales are down but was cheered by the strength of online trading.
Results for its sales from August up until Xmas eve saw sales down 2.7 per cent but it was buoyed by a 16.9 per cent rise at its online and catalogue Directory business.
The firm says its post-Christmas sale period has gone well with final clearance rates slightly ahead of 2010 and as for 2012,it says it is cautious,expecting “profit before tax only slightly up on this year.
Meanwhile retail chain John Lewis have reported like for like sales up 6.2 per cent in the 5 weeks to 31 December 2011.
Its online sales jumped 27.9 per cent year on year, breaking through the £600m barrier in the year to date with the department store’s click and collect service seeing a 90 per centincrease in usage. The group though warns about the year ahead saying that 2012 will “undoubtedly be challenging”
Group MD Andy Street said: “Sales during the four weeks to Christmas Eve were outstanding." adding “The first week of clearance saw a very strong start, but against the pre-VAT increase week in 2010, it was always going to be a challenge to match sales, particularly with ‘big ticket’ items.
Tuesday, 3 January 2012
Renewables brings a £2.5b economy boost to the UK
Renewable energy in the UK is bringing almost £2.5billion worth of investment into the country.
Figures from the department of energy and climate change released over the Xmas period by Chris Huhne revealed more evidence of the economic benefits of renewable energy as he reaffirmed the coalition’s commitment to meeting EU renewable energy targets.
The figures came on the same day that the UK published an update on progress to source 15 per centof all energy from renewable sources by 2020.
The latest research from DECC shows that so far this financial year, companies have announced plans for almost £2.5billion worth of investment in renewable energy projects in the UK, with the potential to create almost 12,000 jobs across the country.
A separate report to the European Commission on renewable energy progress in the UK showed that the country achieved a 27 per cent increase in renewable energy consumption from 42.6TWh in 2008 to 54TWh in 2010,representing 3.3 per cent of total energy consumed and that there was a threefold increase in the use of biofuels in transport from 1 per cent of total road transport fuel supply in 2007/8 to 3.33 per cent in 2010.
Commenting on the figures Chris Huhne, Energy Secretary, said: “Renewable energy is not just helping us increase our energy security and reduce our emissions. It is supporting jobs and growth across the country, and giving traditional industrial heartlands the opportunity to thrive again.
He added that:“Our renewable target is less demanding than other EU member states, but the effect is bringing real jobs and investment. “I do not want the UK to be left behind by turning our back on the green economy. The agreement to negotiate a global deal secured at Durban has reinforced major nations’ commitment to cutting carbon. We cannot afford to stand alone while the world wises up.”
Figures from the department of energy and climate change released over the Xmas period by Chris Huhne revealed more evidence of the economic benefits of renewable energy as he reaffirmed the coalition’s commitment to meeting EU renewable energy targets.
The figures came on the same day that the UK published an update on progress to source 15 per centof all energy from renewable sources by 2020.
The latest research from DECC shows that so far this financial year, companies have announced plans for almost £2.5billion worth of investment in renewable energy projects in the UK, with the potential to create almost 12,000 jobs across the country.
A separate report to the European Commission on renewable energy progress in the UK showed that the country achieved a 27 per cent increase in renewable energy consumption from 42.6TWh in 2008 to 54TWh in 2010,representing 3.3 per cent of total energy consumed and that there was a threefold increase in the use of biofuels in transport from 1 per cent of total road transport fuel supply in 2007/8 to 3.33 per cent in 2010.
Commenting on the figures Chris Huhne, Energy Secretary, said: “Renewable energy is not just helping us increase our energy security and reduce our emissions. It is supporting jobs and growth across the country, and giving traditional industrial heartlands the opportunity to thrive again.
He added that:“Our renewable target is less demanding than other EU member states, but the effect is bringing real jobs and investment. “I do not want the UK to be left behind by turning our back on the green economy. The agreement to negotiate a global deal secured at Durban has reinforced major nations’ commitment to cutting carbon. We cannot afford to stand alone while the world wises up.”
UK manufacturing better than forecasts for December
On the first working day of the new year,a little bit of hope for the battered UK economy.
Figures out this morning from a survey of purchasing managers (PMI) show that activity across the British manufacturing sector continued to contract in December, but at a slower pace.
The index for the sector rose to 49.6 from a revised 47.7 in November whereas forecasts had put the PMI at 47.3. A reading of less than 50 indicates a contraction in activity.
The figures were slightly above forecast with demand up in both Germany and China..
"It is encouraging to see output remain steady last month after the declines of recent months, but with the sector highly exposed to a shaky euro zone and reports of softening demand, ironing out economic problems in key export partners will be critical to how the sector performs," said David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply.
Figures out this morning from a survey of purchasing managers (PMI) show that activity across the British manufacturing sector continued to contract in December, but at a slower pace.
The index for the sector rose to 49.6 from a revised 47.7 in November whereas forecasts had put the PMI at 47.3. A reading of less than 50 indicates a contraction in activity.
The figures were slightly above forecast with demand up in both Germany and China..
"It is encouraging to see output remain steady last month after the declines of recent months, but with the sector highly exposed to a shaky euro zone and reports of softening demand, ironing out economic problems in key export partners will be critical to how the sector performs," said David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply.
Monday, 19 December 2011
HMV faces the double whammy of falling sales and digital migration
The battle for to cling onto sales on the high street continues this morning as music retailer HMV has announced this morning that it made an underlying pretax loss of £36.4 million pounds in the 26 weeks to October 29,£9m more than the same period last year.
Whilst telling the city that it has adequate resources to continue trading across the Xmas period and into the foreseeable future,it added that the economic environment and trading circumstances create material uncertainties which may cast significant doubt on the group's ability to continue as a going concern in the future.
Battling against music's move online the Company also faces intense competition from supermarkets and internet retailers.
Back in June,the company was forced into a £220 million refinancing deal with banks and sold its Waterstone's book chain and a Canadian arm to cut debt.
However as consumer confidence falls with sales at stores sales over a year down 11.6 percent,it is be relying on Xmas to boost both sales and turn stocks into much needed cash.
The group has tried to diversify into technology,transforming its stores into selling tablets,docking stations and moving into the top end of the headphones market but with others stores such as Comet finding that market tough,it will be interesting to see just how sales revive in this important part of the year
Whilst telling the city that it has adequate resources to continue trading across the Xmas period and into the foreseeable future,it added that the economic environment and trading circumstances create material uncertainties which may cast significant doubt on the group's ability to continue as a going concern in the future.
Battling against music's move online the Company also faces intense competition from supermarkets and internet retailers.
Back in June,the company was forced into a £220 million refinancing deal with banks and sold its Waterstone's book chain and a Canadian arm to cut debt.
However as consumer confidence falls with sales at stores sales over a year down 11.6 percent,it is be relying on Xmas to boost both sales and turn stocks into much needed cash.
The group has tried to diversify into technology,transforming its stores into selling tablets,docking stations and moving into the top end of the headphones market but with others stores such as Comet finding that market tough,it will be interesting to see just how sales revive in this important part of the year
Thursday, 15 December 2011
Latest economic survey for Manchester suggests we are holding on
Greater Manchester region is performing well against the backdrop of gloomy domestic and Eurozone outlooks according to the latest report from the City's Chamber of Commerce.
The survey in which a total of 827 businesses from across Greater Manchester this quarter, found that though there has been a slight easing of demand, this has not dramatically fallen away since the Q3 survey and, as a consequence, confidence has eased but remains positive.
Understandably, says the Chamber, given the uncertainty, investment has also eased, but again it remains positive and it is investment in people that is strongest.
With the capacity to deliver growth, they add, the region is both well placed and showing the resilience to respond to the current economic challenges.
In manufacturing,the sector measures saw continued growth in the domestic market at the same level as the previous quarter,though there has been an easing of export demand.
The sector continues to see growth, albeit easing slightly over recent months.
Construction firms have had better quarter with domestic demand starting to grow again after a flat previous quarter.
In the services sector,demand is now flat after falling across the previous quarter.
The chamber welcomes the actions of the chancellor in last month's fiscal statement.particularly that more has been done to support exporters to access
emerging markets
It also welcomed that the statement had put in place the plans for infrastructure investment which it says will be a key element of driving demand in the region’s economy and establishing the longer term attractiveness of the region
for inward investment.
The survey in which a total of 827 businesses from across Greater Manchester this quarter, found that though there has been a slight easing of demand, this has not dramatically fallen away since the Q3 survey and, as a consequence, confidence has eased but remains positive.
Understandably, says the Chamber, given the uncertainty, investment has also eased, but again it remains positive and it is investment in people that is strongest.
With the capacity to deliver growth, they add, the region is both well placed and showing the resilience to respond to the current economic challenges.
In manufacturing,the sector measures saw continued growth in the domestic market at the same level as the previous quarter,though there has been an easing of export demand.
The sector continues to see growth, albeit easing slightly over recent months.
Construction firms have had better quarter with domestic demand starting to grow again after a flat previous quarter.
In the services sector,demand is now flat after falling across the previous quarter.
The chamber welcomes the actions of the chancellor in last month's fiscal statement.particularly that more has been done to support exporters to access
emerging markets
It also welcomed that the statement had put in place the plans for infrastructure investment which it says will be a key element of driving demand in the region’s economy and establishing the longer term attractiveness of the region
for inward investment.
Wednesday, 14 December 2011
Unemployment continues to rise and public sector takes the brunt
Unemployment continues to rise as figures out this morning show that at 8.3 per cent,it is now at its highest rate since 1994.
The Office for National Statistics said that the number of people out of work in the three months to October rose by 128,000 to 2.638 million, although those claiming new benefit appears to be levelling off.
Many economists had feared a much larger rise to 8.4 per cent.
Seperate figures from the ONS show that public sector employment dropped to its lowest level since September 2003 in the third quarter of 2011, falling by 67,000 to 5.987 million.
In the same period the increase in private sector jobs was barely 5,000.
Youth unemployment rose to 1.027 million, the highest since records began in 1992, beating the previous record set only last month.
The Office for National Statistics said that the number of people out of work in the three months to October rose by 128,000 to 2.638 million, although those claiming new benefit appears to be levelling off.
Many economists had feared a much larger rise to 8.4 per cent.
Seperate figures from the ONS show that public sector employment dropped to its lowest level since September 2003 in the third quarter of 2011, falling by 67,000 to 5.987 million.
In the same period the increase in private sector jobs was barely 5,000.
Youth unemployment rose to 1.027 million, the highest since records began in 1992, beating the previous record set only last month.
Tuesday, 13 December 2011
Flatlining job market says report
The UK‟s Employment Outlook has slipped to its weakest level since the final quarter of 2009,according to a survey by Manpower out this morning.
The Survey, based on responses from 2,100 UK employers, asks whether they intend to hire additional workers in the coming economic quarter. The national Seasonally Adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 0% indicates that the jobs market is now flat-lining.
Eight in 10 employers are not intending to change their staffing levels in the next quarter, but the number of employers looking to hire new staff is comparable to the number expecting to cut jobs.
This compares to a marginally positive Net Employment Outlook of +1% in Q4, 2011.
Employers in the North East of England report the most optimistic hiring plans going into 2012 with an Outlook of +10%.
The North West has also witnessed a decline and is two points down on the previous quarter at -5%
The Survey, based on responses from 2,100 UK employers, asks whether they intend to hire additional workers in the coming economic quarter. The national Seasonally Adjusted Net Employment Outlook of 0% indicates that the jobs market is now flat-lining.
Eight in 10 employers are not intending to change their staffing levels in the next quarter, but the number of employers looking to hire new staff is comparable to the number expecting to cut jobs.
This compares to a marginally positive Net Employment Outlook of +1% in Q4, 2011.
Employers in the North East of England report the most optimistic hiring plans going into 2012 with an Outlook of +10%.
The North West has also witnessed a decline and is two points down on the previous quarter at -5%
Inflation falls but bad news on fuel prices
Some good economic news for the government this morning.
Inflation is falling from its September peak with the consumer prices index (CPI) dropping to 4.8 per cent in November in what is being predicted as the start of a protracted downward slide.
Food, petrol, clothing and furniture, household equipment, and maintenance were all sighted as reasons for the fall with the broader retail prices index (RPI) falling to 5.2 per cent in November, from 5.4 per cent in October.
However some bad news from the statistics office when it said that prices of electricity, gas and other fuels rose by 20.9 per cent in November,that is the fastest pace since February 2009.
Inflation is expected to continue to fall into the new year as the affect of January’s rise in the rate of VAT to 20 per cent falls out of the figures.
Inflation is falling from its September peak with the consumer prices index (CPI) dropping to 4.8 per cent in November in what is being predicted as the start of a protracted downward slide.
Food, petrol, clothing and furniture, household equipment, and maintenance were all sighted as reasons for the fall with the broader retail prices index (RPI) falling to 5.2 per cent in November, from 5.4 per cent in October.
However some bad news from the statistics office when it said that prices of electricity, gas and other fuels rose by 20.9 per cent in November,that is the fastest pace since February 2009.
Inflation is expected to continue to fall into the new year as the affect of January’s rise in the rate of VAT to 20 per cent falls out of the figures.
Tuesday, 6 December 2011
Bad news on the high street as sales fall in November
Retail sales continued to fall in November despite "panic" levels of discounting on the high street, a monthly survey has found, spelling more gloom for the sector.
BDO's High Street Sales Tracker saw like-for-like sales fall 1.7 per cent last month, as unseasonably warm weather hit fashion sales, which dropped 1 per cent.
Non-fashion slumped 3.1 per cent and homewares was down 2.6 per cent.
BDO said the drop in sales came despite heavy promotion activity to pull in cash-strapped consumers, which is on a par with "panic sales" of 2008 and is expected to hit retailers' profit margins.
Don Williams, national head of retail and wholesale at BDO, said: "Throughout 2011 we've seen the high street polarising between high performers and strugglers.
"The former are surviving despite the tough climate, but the latter have found failing to offer consumers high levels of service and innovative, new products at the right prices is a quick route to very quiet tills."
Source PA
BDO's High Street Sales Tracker saw like-for-like sales fall 1.7 per cent last month, as unseasonably warm weather hit fashion sales, which dropped 1 per cent.
Non-fashion slumped 3.1 per cent and homewares was down 2.6 per cent.
BDO said the drop in sales came despite heavy promotion activity to pull in cash-strapped consumers, which is on a par with "panic sales" of 2008 and is expected to hit retailers' profit margins.
Don Williams, national head of retail and wholesale at BDO, said: "Throughout 2011 we've seen the high street polarising between high performers and strugglers.
"The former are surviving despite the tough climate, but the latter have found failing to offer consumers high levels of service and innovative, new products at the right prices is a quick route to very quiet tills."
Source PA
Thursday, 1 December 2011
Manufacturing and output continues to fall in the UK
More bad news on the economy as manufacturing output has shrunk to its lowest level since June 2009.
November was the second successive month that output from Britain's factories fell with weak global demand being blamed.
Output also fell last month at the fastest pace in more than two years and new orders contracted for a fifth straight month although at a slower pace than in October.
The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.6 in November, its lowest level since June 2009, from an upwardly revised 47.8 in October.
The index, which was below the 50 mark that indicates growth in activity for a second month running, came in a touch above forecasts for a reading of 47.0.
Part of the reason is that manufacturers have been running down inventories to cut costs.These helped prop up economic growth in the third quarter and the running down will have a profound effect on growth in the fourth quarter.
November was the second successive month that output from Britain's factories fell with weak global demand being blamed.
Output also fell last month at the fastest pace in more than two years and new orders contracted for a fifth straight month although at a slower pace than in October.
The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 47.6 in November, its lowest level since June 2009, from an upwardly revised 47.8 in October.
The index, which was below the 50 mark that indicates growth in activity for a second month running, came in a touch above forecasts for a reading of 47.0.
Part of the reason is that manufacturers have been running down inventories to cut costs.These helped prop up economic growth in the third quarter and the running down will have a profound effect on growth in the fourth quarter.
Starbuck's solves our youth unemployment problems
All our economic problems are over it seems.
The Prime Minister is hailing the news that global coffeehouse chain Starbucks has revealed plans to create up to 5,000 jobs over the next five years as it ramps up its drive-through business in the UK.
According to a statement from the Company,it wants to expand the number of drive-through branches in the UK from nine to 200 and around half of the drive-throughs will be operated under licence by petrol forecourt retailer Euro Garages, which mainly operates in the north of England.
Kris Engskov, managing director of Starbucks UK & Ireland, said the expansion plans would particularly benefit young jobseekers as half the chain's baristas are under 24 years old.
Downing Street has welcomed the announcement saying it was a "great boost to the British economy".
A good reaction from Diana Johnson MP on twitter to the news
Mine's a grandee Latte
The Prime Minister is hailing the news that global coffeehouse chain Starbucks has revealed plans to create up to 5,000 jobs over the next five years as it ramps up its drive-through business in the UK.
According to a statement from the Company,it wants to expand the number of drive-through branches in the UK from nine to 200 and around half of the drive-throughs will be operated under licence by petrol forecourt retailer Euro Garages, which mainly operates in the north of England.
Kris Engskov, managing director of Starbucks UK & Ireland, said the expansion plans would particularly benefit young jobseekers as half the chain's baristas are under 24 years old.
Downing Street has welcomed the announcement saying it was a "great boost to the British economy".
A good reaction from Diana Johnson MP on twitter to the news
The PM is celebrating 5,000 new Starbucks jobs. With all due respect, jobs paying just above Minimum Wage don't replace 3,000 lost at #BAE.
Mine's a grandee Latte
Monday, 28 November 2011
British Chamber cuts its growth forecasts
Ahead of this week's autumn statement and the expected cuts in growth forecast by the Office of Budget responsibility,The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has downgraded its prediction for UK GDP growth in 2011, 2012, and 2013.
The chamber says that growth will be minimal in the last quarter of this year, and the first two quarters of 2012 .
Thereafter,it expects gradual improvement, but UK growth is likely to remain weak by historical standards until the second half of 2013.
It has forecast growth of 0.9 per cent in 2011 (down from 1.1 per cent in its September forecast), 0.8 per cent in 2012 (down from 2.1 per cent), and 1.8 per cent in 2013 (down from 2.5 per cent).
As for unemployment the forecast envisages that total UK unemployment will increase from 2.62 million in July-September 2011, to 2.77 million by the end of next year a net increase of some 150,000 in the jobless total.
Interest rates will remain at 0.5 per cent until at least the fourth quarter of 2012, and then increase modestly, reaching 1.5 per cent by the end of 2013.
Commenting on the survey John Longworth, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
“The challenges facing the UK economy have grown in recent months. Uncertainty surrounding the eurozone will delay a significant upturn in growth until late in 2012. We expect inflation to fall sharply, which is positive news for businesses and consumers, but we will be faced with rising unemployment for some time to come.”
“Despite our prediction of slow growth, there is no need for doom and gloom. The UK economy has the potential to recover and thrive. Our economic prospects will improve, but not overnight.
The chamber says that growth will be minimal in the last quarter of this year, and the first two quarters of 2012 .
Thereafter,it expects gradual improvement, but UK growth is likely to remain weak by historical standards until the second half of 2013.
It has forecast growth of 0.9 per cent in 2011 (down from 1.1 per cent in its September forecast), 0.8 per cent in 2012 (down from 2.1 per cent), and 1.8 per cent in 2013 (down from 2.5 per cent).
As for unemployment the forecast envisages that total UK unemployment will increase from 2.62 million in July-September 2011, to 2.77 million by the end of next year a net increase of some 150,000 in the jobless total.
Interest rates will remain at 0.5 per cent until at least the fourth quarter of 2012, and then increase modestly, reaching 1.5 per cent by the end of 2013.
Commenting on the survey John Longworth, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
“The challenges facing the UK economy have grown in recent months. Uncertainty surrounding the eurozone will delay a significant upturn in growth until late in 2012. We expect inflation to fall sharply, which is positive news for businesses and consumers, but we will be faced with rising unemployment for some time to come.”
“Despite our prediction of slow growth, there is no need for doom and gloom. The UK economy has the potential to recover and thrive. Our economic prospects will improve, but not overnight.
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