Why the West is unwilling to back Tsvangirai

Robin Lustig takes a look at the situation in Zimbabwe with Morgan Tsvangirai currently trying to drum up support for aid to the impoverished country.

The problem though as Robin says is

Western governments aren't yet convinced that Mr Tsvangirai is really the man in charge. President Mugabe retains control of security, his cronies are still where they were - and crucially, the much-criticised governor of the central bank, Gideon Gono, is still in place.
Western governments want to make sure that if they do start handing over cash again, it won't be siphoned off into sundry off-shore bank accounts. It might be possible to transfer money directly to, for example, the Health Ministry, which is controlled by Mr Tsvangirai's MDC - but the risk is that that would free up other cash to be misused elsewhere.

The reaction of the Dutch Prime Mnister says it all.Jan Peter Balkenende. was confident Mr. Tsvangirai was doing his utmost to raise up Zimbabwe ,but that the Hague won't support the Harare government financially until it institutes reforms on a range of issues.

Currently in Washington he has the same problem persuading Barack Obama.State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the administration was looking for “ways to ease the suffering of the Zimbabwean people without bolstering those forces that are clinging to corruption and repression.”

A cool ad from Zimabawe

Ht-Andrew Sullivan

Good news for the people of Zimbabwe

Maybe Robert Mugabe isn't a great fan of the West but it appears that a Western countries currency may have finally halted the raging inflation in the country.

From 231,000,000 per cent back in October,the latest figures are showing minus 3.1 per cent in February as a result of the dollarisation of the economy.

What that means is that besides both the American Dollars and the South African Rand now being accepted in the shops,many government salaries are now paid in dollars.

The result is that for the first time,prices are now staying at the same level for days on end whereas before shopkeepers were having to recalculate at least twice a day.

The policy comes on the back of the power sharing agreement between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai.

Last week Finance Minister Tendai Biti said the Zimbabwe dollar had essentially died. He also predicted single-digit inflation by year-end.

Why Mugabe must go

If there is no other reason then this article from Time shows why the world must get together and boot out the Zimbabwean dictator

According to reports in Zimbabwe's domestic press on Thursday, President Robert Mugabe and delegates to the annual conference of his ruling Zanu-PF Party will chomp their way through 124 cattle, 81 goats and 18 pigs over the course of their deliberations in the central town of Bindura. "Even if no more beasts are donated," said Geoffrey Nyarota, managing editor of thezimbabwetimes.com, referring to the practice of delegates donating animals to the leadership, "124 head of cattle is an inordinately large quantity of beef." With 5,000 delegates expected to attend, he added, it worked out to "40 delegates per bovine over four days — that is not to mention the pork, the goat, the maize-meal, the rice, among other basic foodstuffs currently in acute shortage throughout Zimbabwe."

Inflation past the 2m mark in Zimbabwe

Never mind our inflation rate.

The rate in Zimbabwe is now 2,200,000 %

Quite a jump from the last official rate which was back in February then recorded at 165,000%

The main cause of this hyper inflation is the government's continued printing of money to pay civil servants,government oficials and the army.This was intensified during the recent election campaign as the regime of Robert Mugabe needed the support of the army.

The regime refutes the explanation pinning the cause on the economic sanctions imposed on the country.It has introduced a system of price controls on business but these have had a negative effect,simply being shortages of supply as business cannot pass on the rising costs of production.

Shortages = rising inflation

A sour taste in the mouth

Nick Robinson wonders why" did the diplomats get it so wrong?"

The decision by China and Russia to veto the imposition of sanctions on Zimbabwe seems remarkable in the light of the briefings given during the G8 summit.

This is what Gordon Brown said

For the first time the G8, including every country within the G8, has come out in favour of sanctions against Zimbabwe and it is clear in the script that was issued last night by the G8 about our views about the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe".

but as Nick Robinson points out in fairness he went on to make clear the difference between the G8 and the Un

For the first time the G8, including every country within the G8, has come out in favour of sanctions against Zimbabwe and it is clear in the script that was issued last night by the G8 about our views about the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe".

Russia made it clear that it thought the sanctions were uneccessary as Zimbabwe was not a threat to International securit in spite of President Medvedev's assurances in Japan,maybe an indicaton of who is pulling the strings in Moscow.

Maybe a play with words but what is the difference between regional and international security.

This morning's headlines fail to note that South Africa as well voted against sanctions clearly beleiving that its internal was far more important in the peace process.

As for China's vote,it's difficult to understand it in a the run up to the Olympics

As Daniel Nasaw says in the Guardian

The outcome at UN headquarters in New York will raise questions about the international community's ability to act decisively against Mugabe and his Zanu-PF ringleaders

Well Done Gordon

Hats off to Gordon Brown who according to this morning's Times

used shock tactics to win support for a tough G8 statement refusing to recognise Mr Mugabe's rule. He was said to have pulled fellow leaders aside to show them a horrific photograph of a driver for Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change who was brutally murdered last month. He told them that every day the world failed to act, similar tragedies would follow.
The G8 members Russia and Italy dropped their opposition to sanctions, breaking with the African Union and China.

At least Gordon Brown will come home with something positive approved.

Southern Africa needs to stand up to Mugabe

It is good to see that at least one politician in Southern Africa is standing up to the latest manoeuvres by the Mugabe regime.

Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga has branded him exactly what he is "a Dictator"

"As a pan-Africanist, I think that I would be
failing in my duty if I did not point out that what is happening in Zimbabwe is a big embarrassment to the entire continent of Africa.
We cannot be speaking about democracy and democratization of the continent when we condone what is happening in Zimbabwe.

Of course for these words to really reach home,South Africa needs to take further action.

President Thabo Mbeki has been unwilling to disown a comrade and would rather see millions of Zimbabweans suffer.

Jacob Zuma meanwhile has shown a little more nerve in attacking Mugabe,openly criticising the delays of the polling results,and meeting with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

Mugabe wants the Tories back in Power

Jason Brown over at Political Wire claims that Robert Mugabe is backing David Cameron.

Sam Akaki, a journalist for the government’s mouthpiece, the Harare Herald, claims that the British government has engineered Zimbabwe’s descent into chaos:

and quotes him saying that

Just as the US has maintained an economic blockade against, and repeatedly violated Cuba’s territorial independence, the Labour government has misused its influence in the UN, European Union, G8, Commonwealth, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to ensure Zimbabwe’s economic collapse.

adding that

since coming to power in 1977

)surely a typo),

the Labour government has single-mindedly pursued an aggressive Africa policy aimed at running down President Mugabe, ignoring African views and the dire humanitarian consequences.

Only with the Conservative Party in power in the UK can that country hope to salvage its rapidly deteriorating relationship with Zimbabwe and Africa.
Isn’t it now plainly clear that the British relationship with Zimbabwe in particular and Africa in general will not improve until the Conservative Party takes over in the United Kingdom?

Somehow I cannot see Mr Cameron rushing to the party

Mugabe in Rome for food summit

A very angry post.

Quite how Mr Mugabe managed to wangle an invite to the United Nations food summit in Rome begers belief.

Despite the fact that he is banned from entering Eu territory,it seems UN events are exempt.

Besides that the supreme irony of a man who has turned one of Africa's food exporters into one of its largest imports dependent on foreign aid.

In its capital Harare,two million residents survive on one meal a day and 305 of children under 5 are malnourished.It is estimated that 3.5 million have fled the country to escape malnutrition and poverty.Inflation is running at an official rate of 165,000 % and besides food shortages,there are fuel and material shortages.

So what is this man going to contribute to the debate?

A lesson in Geography for Hague

With all the troubles over tax it was easy to miss the fact that the Tory shadow foriegn secretary has little grasp of Geography.

The FT blog picked up yesterday that William Hague

is rightly concerned about the shipment of Chinese arms which is trying to find its way to Zimbabwe’s president Robert Mugabe, but his grasp of African geography is less certain.
On Tuesday he issued a press release calling on David Miliband, foreign secretary “to take urgent action with regard to the Chinese ship, currently heading to Uganda carrying arms bound for Zimbabwe”.
Hague’s intervention sent the Foreign Office into a spin, as officials pored over atlases trying to work out how the Chinese vessel might achieve the unlikely task of offloading its weapons in a land-locked country in the heart of Africa

The pros and cons of intervention in Zimbabwe

Whilst on the subject of oppressive regimes,First Post has a good analyis of the pro's and cons of intervention in Zimbabwe

For the pro's of which many are listed

There's more hope of success if the West acts quickly. The rule of law and democratic process are not far beneath the surface in Zimbabwean society. African countries torn apart by prolonged civil turmoil, such as Uganda or Ghana, typically take several decades to regain stability.

but

Any intervention by Britain will be condemned as neo-colonialism and Morgan Tsvangirai will appear to be a stooge. In any case, like America, Britain is just too busy elsewhere, with forces overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Thereis now much evidence that Mugabe is turning the screws on his opposition prior to announcing a second poll.

There is a good piece in the Guardian this morning which provides a great deal of evidence

But the question is that this period proor to announcement is a window in which the West but more importantly the surrounding African states can act.

The blogging scene in Zimbabwe

With the situatio in Zimbabwe far from resolved,here are some blogs from Zimbabwe thanks to BBC newsnight

This is Zimbabwe which says of the delays in announcing the senate results

This is unacceptable! Can’t they at least announce the candidates that they have already sworn in? We know by now that drip-feeding results isn’t an issue for the ZEC so why the wait now?

Enough is enough which is aggregating all the blog comments

Cry beloved Zimbabwe whose latest post speculates

Since 2000, slowly the Zimbabwean cabinet's authority was being superseded by the Joint Operations Command (JOC), which was adapted from the counter-insurgency agency of the old white minority Rhodesian Government. The was led by Mugabe's erosion of confidence in public officials and the encroachment of armed forces in civilian matters. While this served Mugabe's self-preservation needs until March 29 2008, it has already started creating problems for the government in waiting MDC now which will struggle to uproot an entrenched military culture in civilian government.

From the frontline,a former BBC journalist who is

currently on a voyage of rediscovery to southern Africa. Treading lightly, with a warm smile and open heart she is asking everyone she meets about their lives, hopes and dreams.

Or for the government's view you can always try the Herald or its official website