The arrest of Mullah Baradar

A good post from Wardman Wire from Sunny Peter on the arrest of the Taliban's military No 2 in Pakistan yesterday

Without doubt Mullah Baradar is an important catch. He has been credited with rebuilding the Taliban fighting force into an effective military organ since it was disseminated as a result of the US-led invasion in Afghanistan in the early part of this decade. Commentators are closely evaluating the implications that the arrest will have on US-led war on terror agenda in Afghanistan.

But as he notes

Mullah Baradar’s presence in Karachi was always known, and the arrest itself was without any resistance. This raises a few pertinent questions about the timing and the authenticity of the operation. Pakistan has deliberately sought to keep the US out of operations against the terrorists in its territory, even as it provided a safe haven to Taliban & al Qaeda commanders. It is easy to assume that Mullah Baradar’s arrest is a result of a larger geo-strategic design of the Pakistan’s Intelligence Agency.

Living In Swat

With US secretary of State Hilary Clinton giving another warning to the Pakistani authorities over their policy to the Taliban.

This blog is a timely reminder of the problems that the authorities face in provinces such a Swat

As soon as Taliban entered swat and began their activities, their first step was installation of fear through show of weapon. Then, they created an atmosphere where they asked local men to have beard and women shall remain in veils, as it is Islam. With this, there remained no difference between who is local and who is Taliban. I mean who can actually differentiate among true Taliban and locals if they have the same dress code?

Losing the plot

Perhaps choosing to let this news out on budget day when the media's attention is somewhat focused on matters fiscal,it has been announced that the 12 men arrested under the prevention of terrorism act were not in fact planning to bomb the Trafford Centre,St Anne's square or anywhere else in the North West.

Instead 11 are to be deported presumably under misuse of their student visas?

Another severe embarrassment to the anti terrorist unit who were forced to move quick after Mr Quick let the proverbial rabbit of the hat outside No 10.

It has been announced that Lord Carlile of Berriew will conduct a review into the events of the last couple of weeks.

Although the police seem to think that it is perfectly reasonable to hold these men for nearly two weeks and then release them without charge,citing as the chief constable of Manchester Mr Fahy says is simply carrying out our duty.

Questions have to be asked about the due process of the arrests and the comments made by certain politicians over the seriousness of the inquiry.

On Bob Quick's departure

There is very little left to be said about the stupid mistake that Bob Quick made yesterday as he stumbled out of the 4 by 4 outside No 10.

Not realising that it was so very easy for the media to home in on whatever documents he was carrying may well hace led to the jeopordisation of a security operation.

We won't know the outcome or consequences of that for some time but there was little doubt that he had to go

Four reasons why Guantanamo bay should have been shut a lot earlier

Writing at the Washington note,Lawrence Wilkerson looks at some of the things that have gone wrong over Guantanamo bay.

1.the utter incompetence of the battlefield vetting in Afghanistan during the early stages of the U.S. operations there. Simply stated, no meaningful attempt at discrimination was made in-country by competent officials, civilian or military, as to who we were transporting to Cuba for detention and interrogation.

2.several in the U.S. leadership became aware of this lack of proper vetting very early on and, thus, of the reality that many of the detainees were innocent of any substantial wrongdoing, had little intelligence value, and should be immediately released.

3.and maybe the most worrying-how hard Secretary of State Colin Powell and his deputy Richard Armitage labored to ameliorate the GITMO situation from almost day one.

4. that the philosophy held that it did not matter if a detainee were innocent. Indeed, because he lived in Afghanistan and was captured on or near the battle area, he must know something of importance

ht-mother jones

Time to negotiate with the Taliban

Imran Khan was being interviewed by Andrew Marr earlier and made the suggestion that it would be better for the Western powers to leave Afghanistan immediately.

His rational was two fold.Firstly that the conflict was destroyed his own country Pakistan,and secondly that history has taught us that any conflict in Afghanistan is unwindable.Just ask the Soviet army of the 1980's and the British army of the 19th century.

More controversially he also suggested that Barack Obama should immediately ope negotiations with the Taliban.They,he argued were never the West's enemy.

Today's New York Times on that very subject carries an interview with the American President in which he

declared the United States was not winning the war in Afghanistan and opened the door to a reconciliation process in which the American military would reach out to moderate elements of the Taliban, much as it did with Sunni militias in Iraq.

It will be seen in some quarters as a controversial policy but with the war seemingly deadlocked and western patience with the Karzai regime seemingly running out it may be a way forward.

How conflicting strategy may prevent stability in Afghanistan

Do read Mary Kaldor excellent piece over at Open Democracy.

She writes about Afghanistan and says

A surge will be pointless unless it also involves a fundamental change of approach. At present, there is a huge tension between the War on Terror, the goal of militarily defeating America’s enemies, and the goal of stabilisation and protection of the Afghan population

adding that

the thrust of the international intervention remains within a traditional security narrative that focuses on stabilizing the state militarily and prioritizes the hunt for terrorists and insurgents over the protection of civilians.

She goes onto argue that the various military tactics such as a reliance on air strikes as well as

other heavy-handed measures, such as torture, arbitrary searches, and detentions, have also damaged the credibility of the multi-national forces.

But what are the solutions?

Firstly she argues

a human security approach would end air strikes and reorient military tactics away from attacking insurgents towards protection and engagement at local levels

secondly

there is an urgent need to rebalance economic and military efforts and give priority to the provision of basic services and legitimate ways of making a living

Thirdly,

the key to both security and the establishment of a functioning licit economy is the establishment of legitimate political authority and an end to the culture of impunity

Syria attack-the last rites of Bush-Cheney?

What was the United States up to when it attacked Syria.The last gasp of the Bush Cheney administration perhaps?

The American's claim that they were attacking a network of al-Qa'ida-linked foreign fighters moving through Syria into Iraq.The Syrian's claim tyhat it was a farm and that amongst the dead were four children.

The US has claimed for some time that the Syrian border is a porous affair that lets insurgents into Iraq to reek havoc.

The timing seems strange as Syria was looking forward to better relations with America after Presidental elections.with Syria accusing The US of war crimes that seems well off the agenda

The Bush administration seems to be ratcheting up action against Syria during its last days in power. The cross border raid undertaken on Sunday, which killed eight people, seems to fit into a broader pattern of the Bush administration initiating cross boarder attacks into countries that it is not officially at war with. The recent attacks in Northwest Pakistan are a case in point.

according to Joshua Landis Co-director, Center for Middle East Studies
University of Oklahoma

More evidence that the West is losing the battle of hearts and minds

The BBC's international poll concluding that America's efforts to fight the war of terror is having no effect has raised a few eyebrows this morning.

According to the poll

Some 29% of people said the "war on terror" launched by President George W Bush in 2001 had had no effect on the Islamist militant network.
According to 30% of those surveyed, US policies have strengthened al-Qaeda.

It is once again evidence that the West is not winning the battle of hearts and minds and this morning's news of bomb attacks in the Iraqi capital as the end of Ramadan approaches will only exemplify that view.

US no safer than 9/11

Seven years since the attacks on America and two wars waged in foreign lands,a report says that America remains "dangerously vulnerable" to chemical, biological and nuclear attacks.

The Independent reports out shortly says

Efforts to reduce access to nuclear technology and bomb-making materials have slowed, thousands of U.S. chemical plants remain unprotected, and the U.S. government continues to oppose strengthening an international treaty to prevent bioterrorism, according to the report produced by the bipartisan Partnership for a Secure America.

reports Time

and the threat of an major terrorist attack on the US remains real today.

Why the Senator won't sparkle from Day 1

Now that the Obamamania has left these shores it is worth reflecting on the amazing effect that the visit has made.

With both polititians and people clambering to be seen in his presence,are we placing a little too much faithi in his ability to turn around the state of the world?

Anybody but Bush is the cry that is heard in most of the West's capitals.Nick Cohen writing in this morning's Observer reminds us that come January the problems willnot go away.

In January, Bush will be history, leaving liberals all alone in a frightening world. Little else will change. Radical Islam will still authorise murder without limit, Iran will still want the bomb and the autocracies of China and Russia will still be growing in wealth and confidence. All those who argued that the 'root cause' of the Bush administration lay behind the terror will find that the terror still flourishes when the root cause has retired.

Suicide bomb in Kabul kills 41

Not very good news coming out of Afghanistan this morning.

In Kabul 41 people are reporting dead and over 140 injured after a suicide bomber rammed a car into the gates of the Indian embassy.

It is the biggest loss of life in the capital since the fall of the Taliban and perhaps the attack illustrates that whilst the standard military battle against the Taliban is being won,this will simply lead to them resorting to hit and run tactics.

Terror will remain a threat whilst Al Qaeda play on American disarray in Pakistan

Two interesting articles on terrorism today.

Take a look at the New York Times which claims that American policy in Pakistan is leading to an increase in Al Qaeda activity.

A plan that was meant to make it easier for special operations units to operate in the trbal areas

has been held up in Washington by the very disagreements it was meant to eliminate. A senior Defense Department official said there was “mounting frustration” in the Pentagon at the continued delay.

and according to the report

increasingly clear that the Bush administration will leave office with Al Qaeda having successfully relocated its base from Afghanistan to Pakistan’s tribal areas, where it has rebuilt much of its ability to attack from the region and broadcast its messages to militants across the world.

Meanwhile The Telegraph maintains that a report will show that terrorism will remain a major threat in the UK for three decades.

The author of the report,former Met chief Lord Stevens says

There is no doubt more attacks will be attempted against the UK and those involved are again likely to travel abroad for preparation. Others may travel to the UK for the sole purpose of carrying out attacks

adding

There is "no indication that the threat level will reduce significantly" for "at least 20 to 30 years,"

Dannatt on soldier's pay

I am not sure whether using the Sun is the right platform for the head of the British army to air his concerns about the state of the forces,although General Sir Richard Dannatt has never been one to hold back.

In an exclusive interview with the paper,he claims that

pay for his men and women was the most important Army issue that needed to be tackled. and that

Troops were given a pay rise this year of just 2.6 per cent – widely derided as nowhere near enough to stop a mass exodus

Perhaps though the most damning comments and those getting the headlines were the comparison with the lowly traffic warden

If you compare a police constable on overtime, I think you will find that an individual serviceman gets quite a lot less.”
A soldier’s starting salary is £12,572 a year, rising to £15,677 as a Level 1 private. A traffic warden’s basic pay is £17,000.

This is a touchy subject for the government.It is not the first time tat tis has flaired up,there have been issues over accomodation,medical treatment,payments and compensation for injuries and recently over the suitablity of equipment.

It is not a good idea for the public to beleive that the services covemant has been broken and Brown and Co need to keep a watch on this.

Another week,another battle begins

Gordon Brown is on the offensive this morning as MP's return to the Commons over the 42 day detention legislation.
Voting is due to take place next week and it may be a vote too far for the government.
All the indications are that this is going to set off another back bench battle.However it will surely be imposssible for Brwon to back down over this.

Instead he has gone on the attack.Writing in this morning's Times he says

“I will stick to the principles I have set out and do the right thing,” adding that even though he recognises that he is going against advice

But having considered all the arguments I conclude that it was the right way to protect national security.

Ed Balls being interviewed on today thismorning ostensibly about the new teenage drink legislation called the propoals

consistent with our parliamentary tradition.The important thing is to do the right thing by national security.

The Guardian brings another argument to the table reporting that

Europe's human rights commissioner is to write to Gordon Brown this week warning him that the proposal to detain terror suspects for up to 42 days without charge is an "excessive" measure that will put Britain "way out of line" with the rest of Europe and will prove counter-productive.

At the moment reports say that up to 50 MP's will vote against the government although there may well be some Tories who will go threw the division lobby with the government.