Entering a black hole

Out of the news at the moment,Tim Whitewell reminds us of South Ossetia.

Entering South Ossetia is like falling into a political black hole. At the top of a twisting, heavily wooded gorge, just below the highest ridge of the Caucasus chain, you leave Russia through a series of checkpoints, steel gates and customs controls. Your passport is stamped, your boots are inspected. And then you arrive - nowhere.

Yes it is all too easy to forget that a little over 4 months ago this enclave was at the centre of the world's attention yet

Reach Tskhinvali and you find a place that, for all the gaping holes in walls and roofs, is still largely standing and working. On a first visit, it is hard not to be more shocked by what has happened to the ethnic Georgian villages on the edge of the town. After revenge attacks by Ossetian militias since the war, they are collections of burnt-out shells, some houses apparently even bulldozed by the authorities

The miscalculation of a small nation and the problems of nationalism

Do read Fred Halliday's excellent post over at Open Democracy on the problems in the Caucasus.

Under the title of The miscalculation of small nations he makes it clear that this is chiefly another episode in history where small nations thought that they could stand up to bigger ones.

He cites other examples which include

Israel in attacking Egypt in 1967, and Lebanon in 1982; Turkey in invading Cyprus in 1974; Egypt in attacking Israel in 1973; Cuba in sending troops to Angola in 1975; Iraq in attacking Iran in 1980, and Kuwait in 1990.

and while the issues are complicated in the region

the chief responsibility belongs to Georgia's reckless and demagogic president, Mikhail Saakashvili. His precipitous launch of a brutal assault on the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali on the night of 7-8 August 2008 is worse than a crime: it is a terrible blunder. More broadly, however, the responsibility devolves onto the self-inflating nationalist ideology which traps Saakashvili and Georgians who think like him. Here, indeed, is a local manifestation of a universal problem. For while the particular circumstances of the latest Caucasian war have been ably analysed it is important to broaden the discussion by exploring the role that the nationalist ideology of Saakashvili's type - with its heady mix of vanity, presumption and miscalculation - has played in the modern world.

Step back and look at the Georgia issue

It is worth reading Paul Berman's take on the fighing in the Caucasus (Hat Tip Harrys Place) especially his final point

A simple, adequate, tit-for-tat response to Russia's invasion does not exist. An adequate response can only be complex, long-term, and global. We will have to recognize that, for the moment, questions of democratic principle, national security, and the energy crisis have decisively merged. We will need a newly combined policy, then--a reaffirmation of the principles of democratic solidarity, together with an urgent, national-priority effort to develop alternative-energy industries in order to weaken the Putin dictatorship and a series of other petro-enemies of democracy. Now, yes, after the invasion of Georgia, we will end up confirming one aspect of the Russian paranoia. Our goal should be to undo, on environmentalist grounds, the central element of Russia's rather primitive prosperity. An alternative energy program will require a turning away from free-market dogma--one more way in which a new policy cannot be traditionally conservative. The lurch will have to be leftward.

Mere chocolate soldiers pandering to the bear

Now here is one viewpoint on the Georgia Russian conflict.

Moscow’s blitzkrieg in Georgia is more than a military campaign. It is designed to empower Russia’s diplomatic strategy, which seeks to make the European Union (EU) the West’s chief representative in future negotiations with Russia. Quite naturally the Kremlin wants to escape the logic of U.S. and NATO policy, which is to contain Russia within her national borders. Meanwhile, the European Union is an entirely different animal: toothless, utopian and ready to please.

According to the piece written by J. R. Nyquist,President Medvedev summoned his ambassadors to a meeting on the 15th July when he told them

“Russia is indeed stronger and able to assume greater responsibility for solving problems on a regional and global scale.” You see, the Cold War was not an American victory. Medvedev reminded his colleagues that they had “survived the Cold War.” And now Russia is prepared to establish “a new equilibrium.”

But it's the EC which comes in for the most criticism

Today the European Union confronts Russia in the same way Neville Chamberlain confronted Hitler in 1938; being outwitted and tricked in the ceasefire negotiations, there is no possible outcome other than appeasement. The Russians insist that their troops be accepted as peacekeepers in Georgia. The French mediators allow this. And so, the stipulated withdrawal of combatants therefore does not apply to the Russian troops. Under this ceasefire agreement Moscow can claim – in a strictly legal sense – that Russian troops can stay in Georgia indefinitely. President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin are laughing at the French while observing international law. Meanwhile, occupied Georgia is looted and burned; Georgian ships are sunk and the Georgian capital is strangled.

Only time will tell

The first shots

There is a lot in the papers today analysing the events of the past week in the Caucasus.

It is worth reading the Sunday Times though in particular.

Mark Franchetti's report looks at how the conflict started and the events of 1st August.On that date he reveals there was an explosion

believed to have been planted by South Ossetian separatists sympathetic to Russia, Five Georgian policemen were injured, one severely. That night Georgian forces struck back. There was a furious firefight that left six South Ossetian rebels dead

It now appears that the events could well have been pre planned by the Russians

It now appears that August 1 was a well-prepared “provocation” – one of the Kremlin’s favourite tactics. Pavel Felgengauer, a Moscow authority on military affairs, claimed in Novaya Gazeta that the plan was for the “Ossetians to intentionally provoke the Georgians” so that “any response, harsh or soft, would be used as an occasion for the attack”. At last Russia was going to teach the Georgians a lesson. Moscow’s relations with the tiny nation of 5m had begun to deteriorate when Mikhail Saakashvili swept to power nearly five years ago.

Saakashvili had been swept to power ona tide of Georgian nationalism and had promised the electorate that he would

bring South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another pro-Russian separatist region flanking the Black Sea, back under Tbilisi’s control.

Whether this was a Russian provoked beginning that now seems to be on the point of re igniting the Cold War,only time will tell

A new Tory foreign policy?

The news that David Cameron is off to Tblisi tomorrow must once again put the spotlight on the British or lack of British influence on the peace process in the Caucasus.

Cameron will meet political leaders in the Georgian capital and it is worth looking at his performance during this crisis.

Earlier in the week he was keen to evoke Churchillian language comparing the West's stand with the appeasement movement in the 1930's and his language and speeches were reminiscent of Mrs Thatcher's during the Cold war.

Is this a pointer to the future or is this the language of a politician in opposition? He certainly sounds like a strong Western leader and his weaken visit will have been designed to show the Russians where he is standing firm.

So in a Cameron world,what would we see?Strong action against Iran,Zimbabwe? But what if Obama is in the White House?

Where is Miliband?

Good post over at Open House where Mary Dejevsky wonders where our foreign secretary is at this time of International crisis

The closest we came to a sighting was word from Mr Murphy on Newsnight that he "and David Miliband" would be attending a Nato ministerial meeting on Wednesday (i.e. tomorrow). The word is that Mr Miliband is holidaying on one or other of Spain's Balearic islands. Now everyone deserves a holiday, but when a foreign crisis of this order blow up, the foreign secretary is the minister you most expect to hear from.
Can it be that, with his sights set on higher things, he has already "moved on" - as Blairspeak might have it - from his foreign affairs portfolio?

Bush declares ultimatum as Russia continues to advance

Finally the West and the US in particular is saying enough is enough over the conflict between Russia and Georgia.

President Bush has accused Moscow of

trying to overthrow the elected government of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili

and warned that a

dramatic and brutal escalation" of Moscow's push into the smaller country would jeopardize its relations with the West

Bush returning from his trip to the Olympics continued

"I am deeply concerned by reports that Russian troops have moved beyond the zone of conflict, attacked the Georgian town of Gori and are threatening Georgia's capital of Tbilisi

There appears no let up in the fighting as the conflict moves into a fifth day,the Guardian reports that

Vastly outnumbered by the Kremlin's ground forces and airpower, the Georgian government announced it was pulling back its troops to defend the capital Tbilisi against a feared Russian onslaught. Washington accused the Kremlin of long preparing an invasion of Georgia with its "aggression that must not go unanswered."

and the BBC is reporting that

Russian forces have entered Georgia from the breakaway region of Abkhazia, as the conflict between the two neighbours appears to be broadening.
Moscow said troops had raided the town of Senaki to destroy a military base. It later said they had left the town.

The conflict continues

The news coming out of South Ossetia doesn't seem any better this morning.Georgia's attempts to disentangle itself from the fighting has fallen on deaf ears.

Prime Minister Putin has seemingly taken charge of the conflict and it now may well turn into an attempt to precipitate the fall of the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.

There are conflicting reports coming out of the region especially as independent journalists are unable to get in.However the extent of human suffering seems at an unprecedented level.

Human Rights watch have got into North Ossetia,part of Russian sovereign territory and has acquired some first hand statements from fleeing refugees

Human Rights Watch obtained official figures on the number of displaced persons tallied by the Russian Operative Headquarters for Providing Humanitarian Assistance to the Residents of South Ossetia, located in Vladikavkaz. According to the documents provided to Human Rights Watch by a representative from the headquarters, from August 8 to the afternoon of August 10, the Federal Migration Service registered 24,032 persons who crossed the border from South Ossetia into Russia. However, 11,190 of those went back. The document mentions that “the overall number [of the displaced] was decreasing because of the people who return to join to volunteer militias of South Ossetia.”

and has also

visited a camp for the displaced in the village of Alagir and interviewed more than a dozen individuals, including those from Tskhinvali and neighboring villages. Those from the city reported spending more than three days in the basements of their houses, unable to come out because of the incessant shelling. Two individuals from Tskhinvali – a mother and her pregnant daughter – said their apartment building was severely damaged by shells and they only dared to come out of the basement on the fourth day, early in the morning of August 10, when Russian troops took full control of the city and started transporting local residents to a safe zone. They said the convoy consisted of six buses (about 27 people each), escorted by the military to the safety zone.

Global voices meanwhile quotes a blogger who says that

Russian ground troops have begun advancing toward Gori, which is an important transport crossroad, AFP reported. Georgia’s Ministry of Interior claimed that Russian tanks have advanced through South Ossetia and have begun shelling Gori. There are fears that Russian forces wish to cut Georgia in half.

There is much comment in the papers this morning,as the writers have had time to digest the events over the weekend.It is very anti Russian.

In the Telegraph Denis McShane writes that

Vladimir Putin has dropped - literally - a bombshell. By ordering a full-scale military invasion of Georgia, he has revealed the true face of his autocratic rule. By flying in person to the scene as if he was field commander-in-chief, he is showing the world that Russia will revert to being a military power willing to bully and threaten its neighbours

For him

Russia has never accepted the loss of the old Soviet empire. Like British Right-wingers who dream of the days when the Union flag fluttered over parts of the world where English was spoken, the Russians still feel the loss of status when the end of communism forced the Kremlin to disgorge the Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia.

In the Guardian David Clarke writes that

The west can no longer stand idle while the Russian bully wreaks havoc

how should western countries respond? The question arises most immediately in relation to Nato, where Georgia hopes to take a step closer to joining by securing a membership action plan. Sceptics within Nato, like Germany, will see the conflict as evidence that Georgia is an unreliable partner best kept at arm's length. This is entirely the wrong way of looking at it. Georgia's security concerns are real, and Russia is the cause. The onus should therefore be on Russia to reduce the security fears that drive the desire for Nato membership by withdrawing unwanted troops and becoming part of a political solution to the frozen conflicts. If it will not do this, it has to accept the consequences.

Whilst Bruce Anderson in the Independent lays the blame firmly on the West.For him

Our diplomatic weakness rests on the shoulders of a longer-term strategic incompetence

where were the Western diplomats with straitjackets and hard words? It may be that the President was so headstrong as to be beyond counsel, but it would have been worth trying: pointing out to him that his intended actions would have inevitable consequences and that Georgia would be facing them on its own. Even if it might not have worked, it should have been tried. Yet just when the game was in a crucial phase, British and American diplomats took their eye off the ball.

Reading a lot about this it seems clear that this was an incident that has been waiting to happen.Georgia's insistence on trying to retake the Ossetian capital Tskhinvali gave Russia the excuse to carry out retaliatory action which appears now to be going a lot further than merely repelling Georgian troops

Implication of the Georgia,Russia conflict

Good news that it looks like we have a ceasefire in South Ossetia


Have a read of Morus over at Political betting who writes a very good piece on the implications of the fighting in South Ossetia and Georgia.

Those for the West are particularly prevalent

This conflict could be significant for a number of reasons. Georgia is extremely keen to become a member of NATO - a position supported in principle by the US, with France and Germany the staunchest advocates against her admission. Russia is understandably opposed, seeing this as evidence that NATO is still strategically a means of chaining the Great Bear. Continental Europe lives in fear that angering Putin or Medvedev could have a detrimental effect on oil and gas supplies from the East. Russia is concerned that a broader alliance of NATO and former Soviet-bloc countries would threaten its growing presence on the global stage. It is worth noting that had Georgia already been admitted to NATO, then that organisation (including the US and UK) would be forced to help Georgia repel the Russian incursion into South Ossetia. How such a scenario might play out is beyond me.

And also for members of the Brown government

In the UK, this will only intensify the spotlight on Foreign Secretary David Miliband, whose tenure at the FCO has been comparitively quiet when compared to his predecessors. The extent to which Gordon Brown wishes to deal with this crisis personally (as a world leader, or just to spite his likely-rival for the leadership) will be another key consideration.

Also take a look at Thomas de Waal writing at Open Democracy

The Caucasus is the kind of place where, when the guns start firing,
it's hard to stop them. That is the brutal reality of South Ossetia,
where a small conflict is beginning to spread exponentially.
Leave aside the geopolitics for the moment and have pity for the people who
will suffer most from this, the citizens - mostly ethnic Ossetians but
also Georgians - who have already died in their hundreds. It is a tiny
and vulnerable place, with no more than 75,000 inhabitants of both
nationalities mixed up in a patchwork of villages and one sleepy
provincial town in the foothills of the Caucasus