Don't hold your breath for the green shoots just yet

Don't get too excited but we are out of recession but barely.

Figures just released show that the UK economy grew by a staggering 0.1 per cent in the last quarter of 2009,hardly cause for concern and bear in mind that these are only provision figures.

It will be disappointing for the government,being at the lower end they show fragility and will be questioned on their sustainabilty.Almost certainly they have been reached thanks to the pre Xmas consumer boom,hardly a cause for celebration.

Let's also remember that since the bust began the econoy has contracted by 5.9 per cent and Germany and France came out of recession last summer with Japan and the US also exited recession last year.

No green shoots according to Blanchflower

After Martin Wolff and Vince Cable yesterday comes David Blanchflower who was if you remember the pessimistic one on the Bank of England's monetary committee.

Writing in the Telegraph this morning he says that anyone who sees the green shoots of recovery is frankly colourblind.

His main argument?

Across the economic indicators, the signs are grim. If the recovery really had arrived, we would be expecting a significant increase in inflation, which goes hand-in-hand with an expanding economy. But while the MPC will inevitably have to write a letter of explanation to the Chancellor this autumn, it will not be because inflation has breached the 2 per cent targetbut because it has dropped below 1 per cent.

The Green shoots index

Over at the Economist they have charted the occurence of the words Green shoots in the press.

If it is anything to go by recovery could be on the way if March and April have anything to do on

In the past, mentions of the word recession (as mapped in an “R-word” index) have been a useful indicator of the likelihood of the real thing. Could the same be true of a green-shoots index and the likelihood of economic recovery?