Friday, 22 August 2008

Officially at the start of recession?

It appears then that the economy has ground to a halt.

Figures out this morning show that there was no growth in the 2nd quarter of the year,the first time since the summer of 1992 that the economy has stopped growing.
One of the most worrying aspects of these figures is that even with the falling pound,there has been a massive slowdown in exports.Manufacturing output fell 0.8% during the quarter and the service industries,the power house of the economy rose 0.2%

The average quarterly growth over the last 15 years has been at around 0.7% a quarter.

So where is it going to go from here.The consensus is that we are heading for a recession,that is two quarters in a row without growth.Whether it will pick up then or continue into 2009 is the unknown factor.

The figures echo the governor of the Bank of England's gloomy forecast of last week whilst it was worse that upgraded forecasts which were putting growth at 0.2% per quarter.

One person who is surely still worried will be the Prime Minister.There is little if any room for manoeuvre and even if it is not the case,the electorate will blame him for the slowdown.If it is next year that the economy turns it might be too late for a change of fortune

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