Thursday, 3 April 2008

Latest polls show narrowing lead for Johnson

This morning's Guardian carries the latest opinion poll on the race for London Major.Unlike previous polls this shows a much tighter race.

According to the paper the ICM poll

suggests Johnson could pull off a sensational victory on May 1 over Livingstone, who was elected by comfortable margins in 2000 and 2004. But the outcome is far from decided.


The poll gives

Johnson a two-point lead overall - 51% to 49% - once second preferences have been allocated under London's alternative voting system. That is the narrowest possible margin of victory.
Johnson is the first choice of 42% of London voters, against 41% who favour Livingstone. Other candidates, including the Liberal Democrat former policeman Brian Paddick, on 10%, stand no chance of winning.


One thing thatthis election is showing is that voters are taking an interest in local politics.As Iain Martin points out

after a long absence, elections are back. It started with Scotland, last year, and will spread through London to the next UK general election. It is 16 years since the 1992 battle, the last contest in which the identity of the ultimate winner was unknown until the votes were counted. In 1997, 2001 and 2005 (despite Tony Blair's pessimism at various points in the campaign and on election night) there was never really a doubt about who would emerge on top. In 2009 or 2010 anything could happen: from a Labour majority of 50 (looking unlikely) to a Tory majority of 10 (looking much more likely than it did a few months ago) and everything in between.

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