Spain heads to the polls

Spain goes to the ballot box on Sunday.The last election back in 2004 was dominated by the Madrid train bombings that swept the socialist government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to power .

The centre right government of Jose Maria Aznar had tried to pin the blame for the attacks on the Basque seperatist group Eta despite all the evidence pointing to Al Queda.


This time it is the economy that is the main issue.After many years of boom with growth averaging twice that of the rest of the EU,the country is heading for slowdown as the building boom, that saw at its height half of the concrete in Europe being poured into Spain,slows down.

So far though as the FT puts it

Spain’s general election campaign, has been a dispiriting spectacle. Against the background of an economy weakened by the end of cheap credit and a sharp property market correction, the contenders seem to be trying to bribe or frighten Spanish voters.

Robin Lustig is there reporting for the World tonight and he recalls

The last time that I was here, Spain was still under the rule of the Fascist dictator General Francisco Franco. It was more than 35 years ago – and it was illegal to speak the Catalan language in public, or to fly the Catalan flag

.

Well times have changed and all the signs are that it is going to be a tight contest with the present holder of the office marginally in front.

This weeks economist looks post election and cites three factors that are going to make it difficult for the new government.

The economy will be the biggest worry

GDP growth is slowing sharply, from 3.8% in 2007 to 3% (officially) or even as little as 2% (say pessimists) this year. Unemployment jumped in both January and February. Consumer confidence is at a 13-year low. And inflation has ticked up above 4%.

The second is regional policy

the new statute for Catalonia, fiercely resisted by the PP and now subject to a court challenge, has proved unpopular in the rest of Spain. It has not even helped the Socialists much in Catalonia—indeed, the regional parties will do well, putting them in a strong bargaining position with a new government

and the third is immigration

Spain has become Europe's migration magnet: in the past decade it has taken in as many ,5m foreigners second only to the United States. Most come from north Africa and Latin America. The population, once expected to fall, is growing fast: official forecasts show it rising from 45m now to almost 50m by 2015.

In a few weeks time Italy goes to the polls and as John Hooper says on Guardian online

fate can be cruel

Last December, Italians were appalled to learn that, in the previous year, Spain's real per capita gross domestic product had overtaken their own. For more than a century they had grown accustomed to regarding their Spanish 'cugini' or cousins with a sort of affectionate condescension.