Gone by the end of the year?

Will this be Alistair Darling's first and last budget.The rumourmongers are predicting that he will be gone by the end of the year.

It has been billed as the budget which will have little room for manoeuvre.Instead Darling will have to demonstrate that he is at least in control of battening down the hatches against global economic recession.

Over at Coffee House,Elizabeth Truss and Lucy Parsons say that

This week's Budget provides the Chancellor with an opportunity to set out a new approach for government spending, based on the notion of a long term sustainable public spending policy. If this opportunity is missed, it will leave the way clear for the Opposition parties.

They quote from a new report published today by independent think tank Reform which argues that

the programme of public spending increases begun in April 1999 has been unsuccessful. This period of public sector expansion - the largest and longest spending increase of the last 35 years – has failed to achieve its stated aims; has acted as a weight on the private sector, damaging long-term economic growth; and has left the UK ill-placed to face the challenges of the coming years.

Wednesday's budget will also take place in an atmosphere where as Guido points out

during all this long unbroken period of economic growth, Gordon failed to pay down the government debt - a truly prudent Chancellor would have done it at some strong point in the economic cycle. He did however forecast the budget surplus this year to be of some £9 billion, in fact the budget will probably be in deficit £9 billion.

So what do we have to look forward to.Some sops to green taxation,a pledge to reduce child poverty,taxes on alcopops and taxing of Non Doms.

According to John Redwood

The Chancellor should turn his mind to the big picture. He should try to get on top of his own spiralling debt and spending, without damaging important public services

. and

We are in dangerous and uncharted waters. The UK ship of state is carrying too much surplus weight and is not being sailed well. We need more liquidity in markets, and lower interest rates, but the poor performance of the UK public sector constrains UK action